Rob Lee (Twitter)
I think the question is whether they can take Kyiv before there is a domestic backlash to casualties and economic disruptions. Putin clearly wants to take Kyiv before conducting serious negotiations, but it isn't clear Russia can do so fast enough, especially if Kharkiv holds out
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@jaylyall_red5:
I don't see how Russia has enough troops to encircle Kyiv effectively, lock down the other major cities, and fight an insurgency all at once. It has no operational reserves, Belarus and CSTO states aren't coming, & mass mobilization of reserves is politically risky (+low quality)
I think the question is whether they can take Kyiv before there is a domestic backlash to casualties and economic disruptions. Putin clearly wants to take Kyiv before conducting serious negotiations, but it isn't clear Russia can do so fast enough, especially if Kharkiv holds out
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@jaylyall_red5:
I don't see how Russia has enough troops to encircle Kyiv effectively, lock down the other major cities, and fight an insurgency all at once. It has no operational reserves, Belarus and CSTO states aren't coming, & mass mobilization of reserves is politically risky (+low quality)
Twitter
Jason Lyall
I don't see how Russia has enough troops to encircle Kyiv effectively, lock down the other major cities, and fight an insurgency all at once. It has no operational reserves, Belarus and CSTO states aren't coming, & mass mobilization of reserves is politically…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
I think Moscow underestimated the amount of resistance they would face, the casualties they would sustain, the amount of time this would take, the response from foreign governments and corporations, and how much their soldiers would need to be informed of what they were doing. 2/
I think Moscow underestimated the amount of resistance they would face, the casualties they would sustain, the amount of time this would take, the response from foreign governments and corporations, and how much their soldiers would need to be informed of what they were doing. 2/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The irony is that Russian officials have long (correctly) thought the US was crazy for invading Iraq. And Putin has a fairly successful record in employing military force, but he decided to pursue maximalist political objectives this time based on poor assumptions. 3/
The irony is that Russian officials have long (correctly) thought the US was crazy for invading Iraq. And Putin has a fairly successful record in employing military force, but he decided to pursue maximalist political objectives this time based on poor assumptions. 3/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@alin_baraitaru Agreed, @Nrg8000 's map is very good, and I think it gives a better indication of control.
@alin_baraitaru Agreed, @Nrg8000 's map is very good, and I think it gives a better indication of control.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@jaylyall_red5 And the farther the Russian military moves into Ukraine, the more extended its supply lines become.
@jaylyall_red5 And the farther the Russian military moves into Ukraine, the more extended its supply lines become.
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @IKoshiw: Kyivans are posting their last photos of peaceful Kyiv on Instagram. Here's a throwback that my parents just sent me from 2000 taken in Kyiv's Botanical Garden.
Thinking about the children I saw crying at Kyiv's main station and sad that they can't enjoy this winter at home. https://twitter.com/IKoshiw/status/1500161070941540353/photo/1
RT @IKoshiw: Kyivans are posting their last photos of peaceful Kyiv on Instagram. Here's a throwback that my parents just sent me from 2000 taken in Kyiv's Botanical Garden.
Thinking about the children I saw crying at Kyiv's main station and sad that they can't enjoy this winter at home. https://twitter.com/IKoshiw/status/1500161070941540353/photo/1
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @Viaches50993743: Тероборона Чернігова попиздила знову русню сьогодні і захопила «аналогов нет» ТОР М-2. Іншу техніку орків просто покрошили. До цього ТОРи вже захоплювали тероборони Сумщини та Миколаївщини. https://twitter.com/Viaches50993743/status/1500243167999889411/photo/1
RT @Viaches50993743: Тероборона Чернігова попиздила знову русню сьогодні і захопила «аналогов нет» ТОР М-2. Іншу техніку орків просто покрошили. До цього ТОРи вже захоплювали тероборони Сумщини та Миколаївщини. https://twitter.com/Viaches50993743/status/1500243167999889411/photo/1
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
What looks like an Uragan MLRS 9M27K-series rocket booster hit a house in Balabanivka outside of Mikolaiv.
https://t.me/rybar/27282
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
568/
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@RALee85:
What looks like an Uragan MLRS 9M27K-series rocket booster hit a house in Balabanivka outside of Mikolaiv.
https://t.co/WwoXlHIHAX https://t.co/slVSDJxm7C
What looks like an Uragan MLRS 9M27K-series rocket booster hit a house in Balabanivka outside of Mikolaiv.
https://t.me/rybar/27282
======
Rob Lee (Twitter)
568/
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@RALee85:
What looks like an Uragan MLRS 9M27K-series rocket booster hit a house in Balabanivka outside of Mikolaiv.
https://t.co/WwoXlHIHAX https://t.co/slVSDJxm7C
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
▪️02:26, 02:32, 02:35 (Minsk time). Three more fighters took off from the airfield in Baranavichy.
▪️02:22, 02:26, 02:30, 02:34. Seven fighters took off from Lida, flying to the southeast.
▪️02:26, 02:32, 02:35 (Minsk time). Three more fighters took off from the airfield in Baranavichy.
▪️02:22, 02:26, 02:30, 02:34. Seven fighters took off from Lida, flying to the southeast.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
This video was reportedly taken in the town of Vorzel near Bucha. 2/
https://t.me/rybar/27394
This video was reportedly taken in the town of Vorzel near Bucha. 2/
https://t.me/rybar/27394
Telegram
Рыбарь
⚔️ По Сети расходится видео, как наводчик ВСУ из окна жилого дома корректирует огонь артиллерии по нашим наступающим частям. Якобы всё происходит в Буче под Киевом.
Не совсем так. Уточняю.
Это соседний с Бучей пгт Ворзель. Позиция, которую заняли всушники…
Не совсем так. Уточняю.
Это соседний с Бучей пгт Ворзель. Позиция, которую заняли всушники…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
152/
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@RALee85:
A Russian Orlan-10 UAV crashed in Odesa.
https://t.co/jIhHP76A3u https://t.co/rV7cVPc5nI
152/
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@RALee85:
A Russian Orlan-10 UAV crashed in Odesa.
https://t.co/jIhHP76A3u https://t.co/rV7cVPc5nI
Rob Lee (Twitter)
571/
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@UAWeapons:
#Ukraine: One of the first glimpses of a PPZR Piorun MANPADS in the hands of Ukrainian forces.
Essentially a very heavily upgraded 9K38 Igla, this Polish system was provided to UA recently and may help explain some of the the recent RuAF losses. https://t.co/uZDtdcMdWr
571/
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@UAWeapons:
#Ukraine: One of the first glimpses of a PPZR Piorun MANPADS in the hands of Ukrainian forces.
Essentially a very heavily upgraded 9K38 Igla, this Polish system was provided to UA recently and may help explain some of the the recent RuAF losses. https://t.co/uZDtdcMdWr
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Dan (Twitter)
47 The two T-72B3M in twt 46 were abandoned only 13.5km after crossing into🇺🇦. Another T-72B3M of 2nd Gds Motor Rifle Div was left here at Vilshana h/t @vmanulik. Probably like other units in this🧵they had a timeline to get west so ditched all non-runners
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@Orxan_012:
https://t.co/WbHUkhWn6n
47 The two T-72B3M in twt 46 were abandoned only 13.5km after crossing into🇺🇦. Another T-72B3M of 2nd Gds Motor Rifle Div was left here at Vilshana h/t @vmanulik. Probably like other units in this🧵they had a timeline to get west so ditched all non-runners
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@Orxan_012:
https://t.co/WbHUkhWn6n
Rob Lee (Twitter)
572/
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@RALee85:
Russian VDV BMD-2 and a T-72B? tank in Hostomel.
https://t.co/iPD3oRCrR0 https://t.co/sB0Vw1AUI4
572/
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@RALee85:
Russian VDV BMD-2 and a T-72B? tank in Hostomel.
https://t.co/iPD3oRCrR0 https://t.co/sB0Vw1AUI4