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Our new weekly report is out! Monday 24 June 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar! 🎖️
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Our new weekly report is out! Tuesday 30 July 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar! 🎖️
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Our new weekly report is out! Monday 26 August 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
Our new weekly report is out! Monday 26 August 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
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Our new weekly report is out! Wednesday 18 September 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
Our new weekly report is out! Wednesday 18 September 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
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Our new weekly report is out! Monday 28 October 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
Our new weekly report is out! Monday 28 October 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar – 🎖️
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Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 14 Nov 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 14 Nov 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
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Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 19 Dec 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 19 Dec 2024 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
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Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 30th January 2025 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
Our latest weekly report is out! Thursday, 30th January 2025 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
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Our latest weekly report is out! Monday, 24th February 2025 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
Our latest weekly report is out! Monday, 24th February 2025 – Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
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Weekly Market Report – Thursday, 20th March 2025 | Bitcoin | Stocks | Dollar 📊
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Strategic Market Update | Monday 28 April 2025 | Bitcoin, Global Equities, US Dollar
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Strategic Market Update | Tuesday 27 May 2025 | Bitcoin, Global Equities, US Dollar
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📊 C.FT Update – Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Monthly report is available – market context & current positioning.
👉 Full PDF report is shared privately on request – DM to receive it.
Monthly report is available – market context & current positioning.
👉 Full PDF report is shared privately on request – DM to receive it.
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📈 15 July 2025 – Market & Strategy Update
Insights on crypto, equities, macro risks, and current positioning.
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
Insights on crypto, equities, macro risks, and current positioning.
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
Date: 18 August 2025
Weekly Market Outlook
⸻
🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
⸻
₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
⸻
📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
⸻
💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
⸻
🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
⸻
Weekly Market Outlook
⸻
🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
⸻
₿ Crypto
BTC
• Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
• Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
• Rejected last week at $4,795.
• Trading today near $4,222.
• Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
• Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
• Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
• This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
⸻
📈 Equities
• S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
• NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
• Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
⸻
💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
• TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
• ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
• BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
• ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
• LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
⸻
🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
⸻
Report CFT Sep 3 2025- updated .pdf
1.9 MB
📈 3 September 2025 – Market & Strategy Update
Insights on crypto, equities, macro data, and current positioning.
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
Insights on crypto, equities, macro data, and current positioning.
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
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📈 3 September 2025 – Market & Strategy Update
Insights on crypto, equities, macro data, and current positioning.
Insights on crypto, equities, macro data, and current positioning.
Report CFT Sep 30 2025.pdf
1.9 MB
📈 30 September 2025 – Monthly Market & Strategy Report
Recap of September: BTC/ETH moves, equities at ATH into quarter-end, macro data (PCE, yields, DXY), and our updated positioning
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
Recap of September: BTC/ETH moves, equities at ATH into quarter-end, macro data (PCE, yields, DXY), and our updated positioning
📎 PDF attached – Feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss any specific point.
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📈 30 September 2025 – Monthly Market & Strategy Report
Recap of September: BTC/ETH moves, equities at ATH into quarter-end, macro data (PCE, yields, DXY), and our updated positioning.
Recap of September: BTC/ETH moves, equities at ATH into quarter-end, macro data (PCE, yields, DXY), and our updated positioning.
CFT | Institutional Update
CFT is transitioning to a more scalable, institutionally focused structure.
Our activities are now centered on technology and execution infrastructure, quantitative research, and institutional consulting for digital asset initiatives.
We continue to support regulated funds, brokers, platforms, and fintech firms operating within the digital asset ecosystem.
📩 Institutional inquiries: dealing@cryptosfundtrading.com
CFT is transitioning to a more scalable, institutionally focused structure.
Our activities are now centered on technology and execution infrastructure, quantitative research, and institutional consulting for digital asset initiatives.
We continue to support regulated funds, brokers, platforms, and fintech firms operating within the digital asset ecosystem.
📩 Institutional inquiries: dealing@cryptosfundtrading.com