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🇻🇪 It seems that a new war has started: The US has launched an attack on Venezuela.

At such moments, the markets traditionally react negatively, volatility increases, demand for defensive assets strengthens, and risky instruments are the first to come under pressure.

Capital, as a rule, does not wait for political formulations and anticipates the worst-case scenarios in advance.

🇺🇸🇻🇪 What just happened in Venezuela is being wildly underestimated.

According to statements from Donald Trump, the United States is now effectively overseeing Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro. This is not just a policy tweak; it is a structural shift in global energy power.

Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves on Earth, roughly 303 billion barrels.

With oil trading at approximately $57 per barrel, the gross value of these reserves sits at roughly $17.3 trillion. Even at a fire-sale discount, selling at half the current market price, that still amounts to over $8.7 trillion in value.

To put that in perspective:

• Within the span of about 12 hours, control over oil reserves worth more than the entire GDP of every country on Earth (except the U.S. and China) has effectively shifted into U.S. hands.
• That value is roughly four times the size of Japan’s GDP.

Trump has signaled that major U.S. oil companies will now move in to operate on the ground. If that framing holds, control over the world’s largest oil reserve has shifted into U.S. hands.

The scale of this shift hasn't fully registered yet. Oil markets will price this in for the first time when trading opens Sunday at 6 PM ET. What happens next will matter a lot.