📉 Market Overview

BTC: $77,312

ETH: $2,113

Fear & Greed Index: 30 (Fear)

BTC Dominance: 60.66%

🤣 The market drop was halted by yet another wave of news regarding a truce between Iran and the US. There are still no specifics, but Trump claims that the peace agreement is already largely negotiated. We wait and hope.

📈 From a technical perspective, we have a very strong resistance overhead in the $78,000–$78,500 area. On the downside, there's an interesting low around $76,000. For me, a break below this low will be a signal to open a short, while a breakout above resistance means a long target toward $80K–$82K.

📉 Market Overview

BTC: $76,801

ETH: $2,098

Fear & Greed Index: 34 (Fear)

BTC Dominance: 60.61%

😎 It's Tuesday, and we're still moving within the sideways range I pointed out yesterday ($76K–$78.5K). Interestingly, the liquidation heatmap highlights the exact same levels where our liquidity of interest is hidden. It looks like there's more liquidity sitting to the upside, but keep in mind that the heatmap only shows rough estimates.

I don't see much point in trading inside this range. The plan remains the same — wait for the price to hit our key support or resistance levels, and look for a reaction from there.

🗓 Headline Ping-Pong: Iran, Trump, and Weekend Magic

The deal of the year is stalling yet again. Right after Trump claimed a peace agreement with Iran was "largely negotiated," Tehran threw cold water on the market, calling the rumors nothing but wishful thinking. To top it off, the US launched preemptive strikes on positions in southern Iran (allegedly for "deterrence"). A real peace is nowhere insight—the sides are just aggressively bargaining.

But why does Trump keep dropping these bombshells on weekends while the markets are closed? It’s a calculated move:

1️⃣ The Pent-up Demand Effect. Over Saturday and Sunday, the crowd has plenty of time to process the news and catch massive FOMO. By Monday morning, futures open with a huge gap up, shorts get squeezed, and the market pumps on pure momentum.
2️⃣ Crushing Oil Prices. Peace talks immediately tank oil prices as soon as Asian markets open. Lower oil signals easing inflation, which automatically drives equities higher.
3️⃣ The Political Show. The news cycle is dead on weekends. Trump captures 100% of global media attention for 48 hours, and by Monday, he can flex: "Look, I just posted a tweet, and the economy grew."

The market is currently surviving on these verbal interventions, but you can't just take politicians at their word. One aggressive tweet, and we'll dump just as fast.

📉 Market Overview

BTC: $75,678

ETH: $2,074

Fear & Greed Index: 25 (Extreme Fear)

BTC Dominance: 60.40%

🤓 And we just keep tumbling down. The next pretty obvious target is the level just below the nearest daily low, specifically around $74K. However, we shouldn't rule out a scenario where we sweep the upside liquidity first before heading further down.

Globally, I'm still expecting a drop toward $70K. The talk of a truce between Iran and the US seems to have turned out to be a dud once again, meaning there are no objective reasons for any explosive growth right now.

😎 History Points to a BTC Drop This Summer

Bitcoin is highly likely to close May in the red, which historically has been a bearish sign for crypto. Data from previous years shows some discouraging numbers:

- A Disastrous June: On average, one month after a "red" May, Bitcoin has lost an additional 10%. If history repeats itself, we could see the price drop toward $68,200 in June.
- A Dull Summer: The three-month average return following a negative May also remains in the red (around -3%). This means we shouldn't expect a quick recovery over the summer months.

📉 Market Overview

BTC: $73,428

ETH: $1,990

Fear & Greed Index: 22 (Extreme Fear)

BTC Dominance: 60.28%

😎 The dump continues, and now we're seeing a reaction from the lower boundary of the ascending channel. All the positive sentiment has been completely wiped from the market. Neither the appointment of the new Fed chair nor Trump's promises seem to please the market anymore.

I'm not going to catch falling knives just yet, as I can't rule out a breakdown below the channel. If that happens, the real "fun" on the market will begin.

↗️ Market Overview

BTC: $73,693

ETH: $2,009

Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear)

BTC Dominance: 60.24%

📈 We neatly touched the lower boundary of the channel and are getting a weak, but still noticeable, reaction. After drops like this, it's best to let the market settle down a bit and decide on its further direction. I won't play the guessing game, but all of this looks highly unpleasant for the bulls.

I think our only chance for continued growth is holding the channel, pushing up, breaking out above the channel once more, and then rallying toward $90K. If we break below the lower boundary now, the bearish momentum will be hard to stop.

⚖️ Polymarket Bets on a BTC Drop

Sentiment on the Polymarket betting platform is highly pessimistic. Smart money and traders are pricing in Bitcoin's 2026 price action as follows:

- Below $55,000 — 54% probability. Buying this outcome right now will yield around 85% net profit (ROI) if it hits.
- Below $45,000 (the average historical drawdown level) — 32% probability. Betting on this scenario offers an impressive 212% ROI.

Consequently, more than half of the players putting up real capital believe in a deep correction down to $55k.

📉 Market Overview

BTC: $72,834

ETH: $1,978

Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear)

BTC Dominance: 59.80%

😎 The weekend didn't bring any resolution, and we are still trading right above our trendline. By all appearances, a downside breakout is the most likely scenario, and in that case, we’ll be closely watching the market's reaction to the $70K area.

❗️ The market could get a boost either from economic data (unemployment figures are out this Friday) or positive news out of Iran. But frankly speaking, I don't really believe in either at the moment.

🥺 Iran has suspended indirect talks with the US due to violations of the truce conditions in Lebanon and Gaza.

😁 Today, many channels are lamenting that Saylor's MicroStrategy has allegedly started selling Bitcoin. However, few bothered to clarify that the company sold a measly 32 coins for a grand total of $2.5 million. Apparently, Saylor was just a bit short on cash for a yacht or a private jet, so he had to resort to desperate measures.

📉 Market Overview

BTC: $70,094

ETH: $1,985

Fear & Greed Index: 23 (Extreme Fear)

BTC Dominance: 58.97%

🤓 Frankly speaking, just yesterday evening I was considering the following scenario: a slowdown in the $70K area, a reversal toward $75K to hunt for short sellers' stops, and then a continued drop. But seeing the market's aggressiveness, I’m starting to doubt it.

Either way, the ascending channel pattern seems to have started playing out, so I won't be surprised if we see Bitcoin hit $60K in the very near future.