Today’s economic news from the U.S. sparked a surge in volatility across currency markets.
Upper are a few screenshots showing how various pairs reacted near the ER levels, followed by an empirical observation regarding the Yen (note: full statistical significance testing is still pending).
The core observation: When price hugs an ER level or repeatedly 'tests' and 'grinds through' it like Yen futures today (whether it’s support or resistance), there is a high probability that the momentum in that same direction will persist over the next few hours—potentially lasting through the subsequent session or sessions
Upper are a few screenshots showing how various pairs reacted near the ER levels, followed by an empirical observation regarding the Yen (note: full statistical significance testing is still pending).
The core observation: When price hugs an ER level or repeatedly 'tests' and 'grinds through' it like Yen futures today (whether it’s support or resistance), there is a high probability that the momentum in that same direction will persist over the next few hours—potentially lasting through the subsequent session or sessions
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Just a quick update: WTI Crude🛢 is retreating on US economic data and has nearly reached the 2nd ER support level.
Since this level aligns with the visible range lower bound, we might see a false breakout followed by a pullback🙅♂️
#WTI
Since this level aligns with the visible range lower bound, we might see a false breakout followed by a pullback🙅♂️
#WTI
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According to Friday's exchange reports for the Euro, a low-cost, short-term $1.3 million Straddle has entered the market.
With an expiration set for this coming Friday, the trade is essentially a bet that the price will remain within a specific range (levels highlighted on the screenshot).
What strengthens this sentiment and validates the trade is today’s ER range (refer to the screenshot from https://clashcharts.com/vitrina-test). This Straddle was purchased specifically tailored to and priced for current volatility levels.
If we see a move toward the Straddle's break-even points today, I will consider entering a long or short position, depending on the actual price action at those levels.
#EUR
With an expiration set for this coming Friday, the trade is essentially a bet that the price will remain within a specific range (levels highlighted on the screenshot).
What strengthens this sentiment and validates the trade is today’s ER range (refer to the screenshot from https://clashcharts.com/vitrina-test). This Straddle was purchased specifically tailored to and priced for current volatility levels.
If we see a move toward the Straddle's break-even points today, I will consider entering a long or short position, depending on the actual price action at those levels.
#EUR
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The Yen has reached the second ER support level, but my point here is something else.
Take a close look at how the price 'worked' the first support level before breaking through.
I suggest you 'take note' of this behavior—use it as a filter to gauge the probability of a breakout whenever the price starts hugging a level. This kind of price action often signals that the level is about to give way
#yen
Take a close look at how the price 'worked' the first support level before breaking through.
I suggest you 'take note' of this behavior—use it as a filter to gauge the probability of a breakout whenever the price starts hugging a level. This kind of price action often signals that the level is about to give way
#yen
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ClashCharts
According to Friday's exchange reports for the Euro, a low-cost, short-term $1.3 million Straddle has entered the market. With an expiration set for this coming Friday, the trade is essentially a bet that the price will remain within a specific range (levels…
The Euro is currently testing the lower break-even boundary of the Straddle we plotted a few days ago. This is a very short-term position, set to expire this coming Friday.
The situation is unique because the options are experiencing aggressive time decay (Theta) due to the approaching expiration. It is critical to observe and evaluate price action in real-time at this specific level.
Will we see offsetting futures buying, typical for a long Straddle with 20+ days to maturity?☹️
I will watch closely and trade accordingly. The risk/reward ratio here is exceptionally tempting😉.
#EURUSD
The situation is unique because the options are experiencing aggressive time decay (Theta) due to the approaching expiration. It is critical to observe and evaluate price action in real-time at this specific level.
Will we see offsetting futures buying, typical for a long Straddle with 20+ days to maturity?☹️
I will watch closely and trade accordingly. The risk/reward ratio here is exceptionally tempting😉.
#EURUSD
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ClashCharts
The Euro is currently testing the lower break-even boundary of the Straddle we plotted a few days ago. This is a very short-term position, set to expire this coming Friday. The situation is unique because the options are experiencing aggressive time decay…
I'd like to see a different quality of rebound, but it is what it is. Everything is right before your eyes..... the level held the price...
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Yesterday’s exchange reports are practically screaming 'bullish' for risk-on currencies and, conversely, 'highly bearish' for the US Dollar.
Specifically, I’m looking at the option trading data for the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP).
The Expiration: April 3, 2026.
The Targets: EUR is eyeing the 1.2250 area, while GBP is targeting 1.4500 (which looks like 'outer space' from current levels).
The cost of these portfolios is negligible, and the Delta is currently tiny. For now, I’m just observing. This doesn't quite feel like 'insider trading' yet, but the unidirectional sentiment across different currencies is certainly catching my eye
In any case, I am staying on the sidelines and waiting for the bearish trend to break on the charts.
Once that happens, I will evaluate other metrics to confirm a potential trend reversal
#EUR #GBP
Specifically, I’m looking at the option trading data for the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP).
The Expiration: April 3, 2026.
The Targets: EUR is eyeing the 1.2250 area, while GBP is targeting 1.4500 (which looks like 'outer space' from current levels).
The cost of these portfolios is negligible, and the Delta is currently tiny. For now, I’m just observing. This doesn't quite feel like 'insider trading' yet, but the unidirectional sentiment across different currencies is certainly catching my eye
In any case, I am staying on the sidelines and waiting for the bearish trend to break on the charts.
Once that happens, I will evaluate other metrics to confirm a potential trend reversal
#EUR #GBP
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clear touch of the 2nd level...Did you have any limits there? I don't have....I have a different view on the current yen position, short the levels rather than buy support.
#Yen
#Yen
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ClashCharts
Yesterday’s exchange reports are practically screaming 'bullish' for risk-on currencies and, conversely, 'highly bearish' for the US Dollar. Specifically, I’m looking at the option trading data for the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP). The Expiration:…
Judging by today's price action in Bitcoin, risk appetite is waking up (likely due to a favorable news backdrop, though I haven't confirmed yet). The key question for me is this: the Euro and other risk-sensitive currencies are showing a 'risk-on' sentiment in the latest reports.
Is this finally the start?
We need to stay patient and watch other filters, as an entry point might be around the corner
#BTC
Is this finally the start?
We need to stay patient and watch other filters, as an entry point might be around the corner
#BTC
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A Non-Obvious Use Case for ER Levels Indicator
To be fair, calling it "non-obvious" might be a stretch—after all, the calculation formula includes the volatility of the at-the-money (ATM) strikes from the two largest option series by open interest.
The attached screenshot shows Crude Oil with ER levels from a few days ago (just a reminder: the indicator is free to use https://clashcharts.com/public/vitrina-test).
Even to the naked eye, the expansion of the volatility corridor is striking—increasing by roughly 1.5 to 2 times.
What’s particularly interesting is that the ER levels expanded a full day before price action actually started "taking off." This provided us a "hidden" warning- It will be "hot"!
What retail traders who rely solely on price charts and standard technical analysis indicators simply don't know (yes, there is a news background, but it's been going on for a couple of months, and a noticeable expansion ER levels has only just occurred)
#WTI #ER
To be fair, calling it "non-obvious" might be a stretch—after all, the calculation formula includes the volatility of the at-the-money (ATM) strikes from the two largest option series by open interest.
The attached screenshot shows Crude Oil with ER levels from a few days ago (just a reminder: the indicator is free to use https://clashcharts.com/public/vitrina-test).
Even to the naked eye, the expansion of the volatility corridor is striking—increasing by roughly 1.5 to 2 times.
What’s particularly interesting is that the ER levels expanded a full day before price action actually started "taking off." This provided us a "hidden" warning- It will be "hot"!
What retail traders who rely solely on price charts and standard technical analysis indicators simply don't know (yes, there is a news background, but it's been going on for a couple of months, and a noticeable expansion ER levels has only just occurred)
#WTI #ER
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A few words on the Ethereum (ETH) options activity on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange).
During the last trading session, a fairly large Straddle appeared — a market-neutral strategy with a portfolio value of $1.3 million. I’ve marked the boundaries of this Straddle with a box on the chart; expiration is set for March 23, 2026.
This portfolio is designed to move away from the point where it was initiated.
Practical application: Set alerts⚠️ slightly beyond the upper and lower boundaries and wait to see which level the price hits first. Upon reaching these levels, one could consider a long or short entry with a tight stop-loss.
What else is happening in ETH portfolios? We’ve seen Puts entering the market (I’ve marked the break-even levels with red lines). Notably, these Puts were opened as the price was rising, which could signal:
📍A lack of confidence in the current rally.
📍 A hedge against long positions (essentially creating a 'synthetic' Straddle).
#ETH
During the last trading session, a fairly large Straddle appeared — a market-neutral strategy with a portfolio value of $1.3 million. I’ve marked the boundaries of this Straddle with a box on the chart; expiration is set for March 23, 2026.
This portfolio is designed to move away from the point where it was initiated.
Practical application: Set alerts⚠️ slightly beyond the upper and lower boundaries and wait to see which level the price hits first. Upon reaching these levels, one could consider a long or short entry with a tight stop-loss.
What else is happening in ETH portfolios? We’ve seen Puts entering the market (I’ve marked the break-even levels with red lines). Notably, these Puts were opened as the price was rising, which could signal:
📍A lack of confidence in the current rally.
📍 A hedge against long positions (essentially creating a 'synthetic' Straddle).
#ETH
Gold in the moment📉. "A safe haven in any situation," they shouted....
Well...that would be too easy..
It’s fascinating to watch how the market responds to key support and resistance levels—and there’s a solid reason behind it.
Right now, the first level only managed to slow things down briefly, and now we’re watching the second level get tested.
What’s really interesting is that this kind of behavior isn’t random or magical—it’s actually driven by how professional operate. Without getting too technical, the same math used to calculate those levels is built into how many funds manage their portfolios and decide when to buy or sell. And that happens consistently, day after day.
Just another reminder that there’s often more logic behind market moves than it seems.
#GOLD
Well...that would be too easy..
It’s fascinating to watch how the market responds to key support and resistance levels—and there’s a solid reason behind it.
Right now, the first level only managed to slow things down briefly, and now we’re watching the second level get tested.
What’s really interesting is that this kind of behavior isn’t random or magical—it’s actually driven by how professional operate. Without getting too technical, the same math used to calculate those levels is built into how many funds manage their portfolios and decide when to buy or sell. And that happens consistently, day after day.
Just another reminder that there’s often more logic behind market moves than it seems.
#GOLD
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