The Hormuz campaign has narrowed to one company's ships
All four vessels struck inside the strait this month belong to Abu Dhabi's national oil company — after none of the crisis's first 24 attacks in Hormuz did.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-18-hormuz-one-owner/
All four vessels struck inside the strait this month belong to Abu Dhabi's national oil company — after none of the crisis's first 24 attacks in Hormuz did.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-18-hormuz-one-owner/
Chokepoint Data
The Hormuz campaign has narrowed to one company's ships
Every ship hit inside the strait this month belongs to one Gulf oil company, after none of the first 24 attacks there did, and with far lighter weapons than in July.
The reopening contracts round-tripped a deal oil never priced
Brent moved +0.21% on the 5 August deal-imminent report — the 6th percentile of crisis days. Polymarket’s year-end leg moved 14 points, and printed an all-time low of 33.5% today.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-17-round-trip-reopening-odds/
Brent moved +0.21% on the 5 August deal-imminent report — the 6th percentile of crisis days. Polymarket’s year-end leg moved 14 points, and printed an all-time low of 33.5% today.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-17-round-trip-reopening-odds/
Chokepoint Data
The reopening contracts round-tripped a deal oil never priced
The reopening markets bought a deal oil never priced, gave back every point of it within twelve days, and now trade below where the rally started.
The war's second strait is at zero, and it died at Hormuz's speed
Russia closed the Kerch Strait on 10 July; thirteen days later its 7-day average fell below one transit. Hormuz took fifteen.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-24-kerch-second-zero/
Russia closed the Kerch Strait on 10 July; thirteen days later its 7-day average fell below one transit. Hormuz took fifteen.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-24-kerch-second-zero/
Chokepoint Data
The war's second strait is at zero, and it died at Hormuz's speed
A strait takes about two weeks to die no matter who closes it or why: Kerch matched Hormuz's collapse curve almost exactly, and its tail is even deader.
Iran's asking price for Hormuz is falling. Nobody is bidding
Tehran's published terms for reopening the strait have gone from five demands to three Washington could grant on its own — while the year-end reopening market halved to a record low.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-21-irans-asking-price/
Tehran's published terms for reopening the strait have gone from five demands to three Washington could grant on its own — while the year-end reopening market halved to a record low.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-21-irans-asking-price/
Chokepoint Data
Iran's asking price for Hormuz is falling. Nobody is bidding
Iran's terms for reopening Hormuz have shrunk to three things Washington could grant on its own, and the reopening market halved anyway: what is missing is a US counterparty, not an Iranian offer.
Washington declared the strait de-mined on Tuesday. Two hours later, Iran and Oman agreed to clear the mines
The all-clear has now been issued twice in eight days, and the only independent count on the record still says roughly 80 mines sit in the main channel.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-26-mines-two-answers/
The all-clear has now been issued twice in eight days, and the only independent count on the record still says roughly 80 mines sit in the main channel.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-26-mines-two-answers/
Chokepoint Data
Washington declared the strait de-mined on Tuesday. Two hours later, Iran and Oman agreed to clear the mines
Nobody has verified that the Strait of Hormuz is clear of mines: the last independent count put roughly 80 in the main channel, and the two sides gave opposite answers two hours apart on Tuesday.
The strait's sixty free days ran out on 16 August. Iran voted the toll into law seven days later
The Islamabad memorandum promised no charge for sixty days only, and an Iranian administration of the strait after that - which is the thing Tehran has spent this week finishing.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-29-sixty-free-days
The Islamabad memorandum promised no charge for sixty days only, and an Iranian administration of the strait after that - which is the thing Tehran has spent this week finishing.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-29-sixty-free-days
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The all-clear lasted five days. Then a supertanker found a mine
Washington said every mine was gone from Hormuz and promised to destroy anything laying new ones. The first ship-versus-mine report in this record arrived five days and fourteen hours later.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-31-all-clear-five-days
Washington said every mine was gone from Hormuz and promised to destroy anything laying new ones. The first ship-versus-mine report in this record arrived five days and fourteen hours later.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-31-all-clear-five-days
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Trump promised a bridge for every ship. Six ships later, the strikes came for a mine
The 22 July rule promised one bridge or power plant for every ship Iran shoots at in Hormuz. Six crossings later, tonight's strike announcement names mines and a base in Jordan instead.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-01-bridge-rule-never-fired
The 22 July rule promised one bridge or power plant for every ship Iran shoots at in Hormuz. Six crossings later, tonight's strike announcement names mines and a base in Jordan instead.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-01-bridge-rule-never-fired
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Both ends of the Hormuz deal went quiet inside three days
Tehran's wire has not mentioned the Oman corridor in any of the fifteen Hormuz items published since the strikes resumed, and the president spent the same days saying he no longer wants a deal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-02-both-ends-went-quiet
Tehran's wire has not mentioned the Oman corridor in any of the fifteen Hormuz items published since the strikes resumed, and the president spent the same days saying he no longer wants a deal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-02-both-ends-went-quiet
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The all-clear now expires before the market can price it
This site put a five-day half-life on the next American all-clear on Hormuz mines. The 1 September one was contradicted in fifteen hours, before any Brent close could price it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-03-all-clear-fifteen-hours
This site put a five-day half-life on the next American all-clear on Hormuz mines. The 1 September one was contradicted in fifteen hours, before any Brent close could price it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-03-all-clear-fifteen-hours
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The only Hormuz news oil still trades is an American airstrike
Deals, ship strikes and the wire have all stopped moving Brent. The ten closes that priced a US airstrike near the strait moved a median 6.3%, and the newest of them is 1 September.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-04-one-hormuz-channel-left
Deals, ship strikes and the wire have all stopped moving Brent. The ten closes that priced a US airstrike near the strait moved a median 6.3%, and the newest of them is 1 September.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-04-one-hormuz-channel-left
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For four months the blockade shot at every flag but Iran's. That ended at Kharg
The last US strike on an Iranian hull in this record was 8 May; the eight since hit Gambian, Palauan and Panamanian ships. Tehran says Saturday's hit an Iranian tanker at its loading terminal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-05-blockade-moved-to-the-berth
The last US strike on an Iranian hull in this record was 8 May; the eight since hit Gambian, Palauan and Panamanian ships. Tehran says Saturday's hit an Iranian tanker at its loading terminal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-05-blockade-moved-to-the-berth
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran finally shot at the US Navy. It picked the hull with nobody on it
Iran had gone 73 recorded attacks without once targeting an American ship. The IRGC says it has now hit one, and that it was remotely operated.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-06-first-shot-no-crew
Iran had gone 73 recorded attacks without once targeting an American ship. The IRGC says it has now hit one, and that it was remotely operated.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-06-first-shot-no-crew
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran's price for Hormuz is down to one item, and it is a paper Tehran tore up
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For six months Iran's blockade named two countries. This week it named a third
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.