Iran's price for Hormuz is down to one item, and it is a paper Tehran tore up
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For six months Iran's blockade named two countries. This week it named a third
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran has claimed four American machines in ten days. None of them had a crew
In its first 73 recorded attacks Iran hit American military targets twice, both fixed bases on the ground; since 31 August its wire has claimed four more, and every one of them is unmanned.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-10-four-machines-no-crew
In its first 73 recorded attacks Iran hit American military targets twice, both fixed bases on the ground; since 31 August its wire has claimed four more, and every one of them is unmanned.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-10-four-machines-no-crew
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Brent has stopped spiking on Hormuz and started climbing
Twenty-two percent in seven sessions with no down day among them — the only week in the crisis's 133 trading days that nobody sold into.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-11-nobody-sold-it
Twenty-two percent in seven sessions with no down day among them — the only week in the crisis's 133 trading days that nobody sold into.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-11-nobody-sold-it
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran has taken the strait to a table Washington is not at
Days after calling an American signature the only route to reopening Hormuz, Tehran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait — a body its wire had not named since the memorandum.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-12-table-washington-is-not-at
Days after calling an American signature the only route to reopening Hormuz, Tehran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait — a body its wire had not named since the memorandum.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-12-table-washington-is-not-at
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For the first time, Iran has announced a Hormuz deal that does not reopen Hormuz
Pezeshkian said on Sunday he plans to sign a navigation agreement in Muscat; his foreign minister spent the day telling all three state agencies it does not mean reopening the strait.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-13-deal-that-opens-nothing
Pezeshkian said on Sunday he plans to sign a navigation agreement in Muscat; his foreign minister spent the day telling all three state agencies it does not mean reopening the strait.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-13-deal-that-opens-nothing
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The Hormuz table that did not need Washington did not convene
Iran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait on Friday; Oman called the meeting off fifty-three hours later, and Tehran says the region itself asked for the delay.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-15-table-that-did-not-convene
Iran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait on Friday; Oman called the meeting off fifty-three hours later, and Tehran says the region itself asked for the delay.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-15-table-that-did-not-convene
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The one lane through Hormuz anyone certified clear is where Iran's mines keep going off
Two supertankers in a fortnight, both reported exploding on the southern route the Joint Maritime Information Center called clear in June - the route Iran calls unauthorised.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-16-cleared-lane-burning-tankers
Two supertankers in a fortnight, both reported exploding on the southern route the Joint Maritime Information Center called clear in June - the route Iran calls unauthorised.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-16-cleared-lane-burning-tankers
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The last time the president named the oil price, it was $75
He wrote that prices were tumbling on 23 June. Brent has risen 73 percent since, and in twenty-two Hormuz posts he has not named a price again.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-17-price-went-unmentioned
He wrote that prices were tumbling on 23 June. Brent has risen 73 percent since, and in twenty-two Hormuz posts he has not named a price again.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-17-price-went-unmentioned
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran stopped calling them mines and named the ship
Ten times since 18 August, Tehran's wire reported a ship struck in the strait and named nobody. This morning the IRGC Navy named the Togo-flagged Trend and said it was stopped for illegal transit.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-18-named-the-ship
Ten times since 18 August, Tehran's wire reported a ship struck in the strait and named nobody. This morning the IRGC Navy named the Togo-flagged Trend and said it was stopped for illegal transit.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-18-named-the-ship
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Brent has added 42 percent on a strait that stopped changing a month ago
Tehran's wire says crude is climbing because Hormuz traffic is falling. On this site's count the traffic stopped falling on 14 August, and the price has risen 42 percent since.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-19-strait-stopped-changing
Tehran's wire says crude is climbing because Hormuz traffic is falling. On this site's count the traffic stopped falling on 14 August, and the price has risen 42 percent since.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-19-strait-stopped-changing
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
A billion barrels are said to have left Hormuz. The ship count finds fewer than five VLCC loads
The figure Tehran's wire attributes to the CENTCOM commander implies Hormuz ran at its full pre-crisis rate; the tanker capacity independently counted through it is one percent of that.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-20-billion-barrel-claim
The figure Tehran's wire attributes to the CENTCOM commander implies Hormuz ran at its full pre-crisis rate; the tanker capacity independently counted through it is one percent of that.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-20-billion-barrel-claim
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Every shot in Hormuz has been the IRGC's. On Sunday the Army claimed one
Across 250 recorded statements the Revolutionary Guard has owned every Iranian action in the strait. Two items an hour apart on Sunday evening gave one to the regular Army.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-21-army-claimed-one
Across 250 recorded statements the Revolutionary Guard has owned every Iranian action in the strait. Two items an hour apart on Sunday evening gave one to the regular Army.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-21-army-claimed-one
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran's price for Hormuz has never gone up before. On Wednesday it did
The security council put the bill for reopening the strait at seven conditions; every earlier count in this record was smaller than the one before it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-23-bill-went-up
The security council put the bill for reopening the strait at seven conditions; every earlier count in this record was smaller than the one before it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-23-bill-went-up
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Every other Brent slide this long came with a deal. This one came with seven conditions
Five lower closes running, 130.80 down to 114.89 - the longest run of selling since the week the Islamabad Memorandum was signed, and the first with no de-escalation anywhere in it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-24-slide-without-a-deal
Five lower closes running, 130.80 down to 114.89 - the longest run of selling since the week the Islamabad Memorandum was signed, and the first with no de-escalation anywhere in it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-24-slide-without-a-deal
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The Red Sea has a busy entrance and no exit
Bab el-Mandeb has printed the ten lowest weeks in seven years of records, all of them since 5 August — and Suez, the same route's other end, has not moved at all.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-25-red-sea-dead-end
Bab el-Mandeb has printed the ten lowest weeks in seven years of records, all of them since 5 August — and Suez, the same route's other end, has not moved at all.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-25-red-sea-dead-end
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran has put a clock on reopening Hormuz. Every earlier clock in this record was an expiry date
Tehran has put a number of days on the strait four times in 278 recorded statements, and every one was a deadline for withdrawing something. Saturday's seven-day plan is the first lead time.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-27-first-clock-on-reopening
Tehran has put a number of days on the strait four times in 278 recorded statements, and every one was a deadline for withdrawing something. Saturday's seven-day plan is the first lead time.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-27-first-clock-on-reopening
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Tehran has made the oil price its proof of control. The proof peaked in April
Iran's parliament speaker now answers American denials by pointing at crude's war premium, which at the last settled close was worth 65 cents on the dollar April paid.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-28-price-changed-sides
Iran's parliament speaker now answers American denials by pointing at crude's war premium, which at the last settled close was worth 65 cents on the dollar April paid.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-28-price-changed-sides
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran's Hormuz conditions have left the security council for the Supreme Leader
Twenty-seven hours after Tehran's wire reported Washington had rejected the seven-day plan, the foreign minister moved the terms for reopening the strait from the council that set them to the Leader.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-29-conditions-changed-owner
Twenty-seven hours after Tehran's wire reported Washington had rejected the seven-day plan, the foreign minister moved the terms for reopening the strait from the council that set them to the Leader.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-29-conditions-changed-owner
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran's president was the only voice on Hormuz on Wednesday. The last time that happened he was signing a deal
Four of the nine presidential statements in this seven-month record arrived on Wednesday morning, and the Revolutionary Guard, the army, the Majlis and the foreign ministry said nothing at all.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-30-president-alone-again
Four of the nine presidential statements in this seven-month record arrived on Wednesday morning, and the Revolutionary Guard, the army, the Majlis and the foreign ministry said nothing at all.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-30-president-alone-again
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.