Iran's asking price for Hormuz is falling. Nobody is bidding
Tehran's published terms for reopening the strait have gone from five demands to three Washington could grant on its own — while the year-end reopening market halved to a record low.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-21-irans-asking-price/
Tehran's published terms for reopening the strait have gone from five demands to three Washington could grant on its own — while the year-end reopening market halved to a record low.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-21-irans-asking-price/
Chokepoint Data
Iran's asking price for Hormuz is falling. Nobody is bidding
Iran's terms for reopening Hormuz have shrunk to three things Washington could grant on its own, and the reopening market halved anyway: what is missing is a US counterparty, not an Iranian offer.
Washington declared the strait de-mined on Tuesday. Two hours later, Iran and Oman agreed to clear the mines
The all-clear has now been issued twice in eight days, and the only independent count on the record still says roughly 80 mines sit in the main channel.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-26-mines-two-answers/
The all-clear has now been issued twice in eight days, and the only independent count on the record still says roughly 80 mines sit in the main channel.
https://chokepointdata.com/analysis/2026-08-26-mines-two-answers/
Chokepoint Data
Washington declared the strait de-mined on Tuesday. Two hours later, Iran and Oman agreed to clear the mines
Nobody has verified that the Strait of Hormuz is clear of mines: the last independent count put roughly 80 in the main channel, and the two sides gave opposite answers two hours apart on Tuesday.
The strait's sixty free days ran out on 16 August. Iran voted the toll into law seven days later
The Islamabad memorandum promised no charge for sixty days only, and an Iranian administration of the strait after that - which is the thing Tehran has spent this week finishing.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-29-sixty-free-days
The Islamabad memorandum promised no charge for sixty days only, and an Iranian administration of the strait after that - which is the thing Tehran has spent this week finishing.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-29-sixty-free-days
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The all-clear lasted five days. Then a supertanker found a mine
Washington said every mine was gone from Hormuz and promised to destroy anything laying new ones. The first ship-versus-mine report in this record arrived five days and fourteen hours later.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-31-all-clear-five-days
Washington said every mine was gone from Hormuz and promised to destroy anything laying new ones. The first ship-versus-mine report in this record arrived five days and fourteen hours later.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-08-31-all-clear-five-days
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Trump promised a bridge for every ship. Six ships later, the strikes came for a mine
The 22 July rule promised one bridge or power plant for every ship Iran shoots at in Hormuz. Six crossings later, tonight's strike announcement names mines and a base in Jordan instead.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-01-bridge-rule-never-fired
The 22 July rule promised one bridge or power plant for every ship Iran shoots at in Hormuz. Six crossings later, tonight's strike announcement names mines and a base in Jordan instead.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-01-bridge-rule-never-fired
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Both ends of the Hormuz deal went quiet inside three days
Tehran's wire has not mentioned the Oman corridor in any of the fifteen Hormuz items published since the strikes resumed, and the president spent the same days saying he no longer wants a deal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-02-both-ends-went-quiet
Tehran's wire has not mentioned the Oman corridor in any of the fifteen Hormuz items published since the strikes resumed, and the president spent the same days saying he no longer wants a deal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-02-both-ends-went-quiet
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The all-clear now expires before the market can price it
This site put a five-day half-life on the next American all-clear on Hormuz mines. The 1 September one was contradicted in fifteen hours, before any Brent close could price it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-03-all-clear-fifteen-hours
This site put a five-day half-life on the next American all-clear on Hormuz mines. The 1 September one was contradicted in fifteen hours, before any Brent close could price it.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-03-all-clear-fifteen-hours
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The only Hormuz news oil still trades is an American airstrike
Deals, ship strikes and the wire have all stopped moving Brent. The ten closes that priced a US airstrike near the strait moved a median 6.3%, and the newest of them is 1 September.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-04-one-hormuz-channel-left
Deals, ship strikes and the wire have all stopped moving Brent. The ten closes that priced a US airstrike near the strait moved a median 6.3%, and the newest of them is 1 September.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-04-one-hormuz-channel-left
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For four months the blockade shot at every flag but Iran's. That ended at Kharg
The last US strike on an Iranian hull in this record was 8 May; the eight since hit Gambian, Palauan and Panamanian ships. Tehran says Saturday's hit an Iranian tanker at its loading terminal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-05-blockade-moved-to-the-berth
The last US strike on an Iranian hull in this record was 8 May; the eight since hit Gambian, Palauan and Panamanian ships. Tehran says Saturday's hit an Iranian tanker at its loading terminal.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-05-blockade-moved-to-the-berth
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran finally shot at the US Navy. It picked the hull with nobody on it
Iran had gone 73 recorded attacks without once targeting an American ship. The IRGC says it has now hit one, and that it was remotely operated.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-06-first-shot-no-crew
Iran had gone 73 recorded attacks without once targeting an American ship. The IRGC says it has now hit one, and that it was remotely operated.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-06-first-shot-no-crew
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran's price for Hormuz is down to one item, and it is a paper Tehran tore up
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
After eight days in which no item on Tehran's wire mentioned a deal, Iran's terms for reopening the strait are a single condition: that Washington go back to the memorandum Iran suspended on 18 July.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-08-price-down-to-one-item
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For six months Iran's blockade named two countries. This week it named a third
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Tehran's rule has always been 'the US, Israel and their allies' — a category it never once filled in. Two items 89 minutes apart on 7 September filled it in with South Korea.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-09-allies-clause-gets-a-name
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran has claimed four American machines in ten days. None of them had a crew
In its first 73 recorded attacks Iran hit American military targets twice, both fixed bases on the ground; since 31 August its wire has claimed four more, and every one of them is unmanned.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-10-four-machines-no-crew
In its first 73 recorded attacks Iran hit American military targets twice, both fixed bases on the ground; since 31 August its wire has claimed four more, and every one of them is unmanned.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-10-four-machines-no-crew
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Brent has stopped spiking on Hormuz and started climbing
Twenty-two percent in seven sessions with no down day among them — the only week in the crisis's 133 trading days that nobody sold into.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-11-nobody-sold-it
Twenty-two percent in seven sessions with no down day among them — the only week in the crisis's 133 trading days that nobody sold into.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-11-nobody-sold-it
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran has taken the strait to a table Washington is not at
Days after calling an American signature the only route to reopening Hormuz, Tehran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait — a body its wire had not named since the memorandum.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-12-table-washington-is-not-at
Days after calling an American signature the only route to reopening Hormuz, Tehran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait — a body its wire had not named since the memorandum.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-12-table-washington-is-not-at
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
For the first time, Iran has announced a Hormuz deal that does not reopen Hormuz
Pezeshkian said on Sunday he plans to sign a navigation agreement in Muscat; his foreign minister spent the day telling all three state agencies it does not mean reopening the strait.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-13-deal-that-opens-nothing
Pezeshkian said on Sunday he plans to sign a navigation agreement in Muscat; his foreign minister spent the day telling all three state agencies it does not mean reopening the strait.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-13-deal-that-opens-nothing
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The Hormuz table that did not need Washington did not convene
Iran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait on Friday; Oman called the meeting off fifty-three hours later, and Tehran says the region itself asked for the delay.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-15-table-that-did-not-convene
Iran convened the Gulf's littoral states to manage the strait on Friday; Oman called the meeting off fifty-three hours later, and Tehran says the region itself asked for the delay.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-15-table-that-did-not-convene
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The one lane through Hormuz anyone certified clear is where Iran's mines keep going off
Two supertankers in a fortnight, both reported exploding on the southern route the Joint Maritime Information Center called clear in June - the route Iran calls unauthorised.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-16-cleared-lane-burning-tankers
Two supertankers in a fortnight, both reported exploding on the southern route the Joint Maritime Information Center called clear in June - the route Iran calls unauthorised.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-16-cleared-lane-burning-tankers
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
The last time the president named the oil price, it was $75
He wrote that prices were tumbling on 23 June. Brent has risen 73 percent since, and in twenty-two Hormuz posts he has not named a price again.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-17-price-went-unmentioned
He wrote that prices were tumbling on 23 June. Brent has risen 73 percent since, and in twenty-two Hormuz posts he has not named a price again.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-17-price-went-unmentioned
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Iran stopped calling them mines and named the ship
Ten times since 18 August, Tehran's wire reported a ship struck in the strait and named nobody. This morning the IRGC Navy named the Togo-flagged Trend and said it was stopped for illegal transit.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-18-named-the-ship
Ten times since 18 August, Tehran's wire reported a ship struck in the strait and named nobody. This morning the IRGC Navy named the Togo-flagged Trend and said it was stopped for illegal transit.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-18-named-the-ship
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.
Brent has added 42 percent on a strait that stopped changing a month ago
Tehran's wire says crude is climbing because Hormuz traffic is falling. On this site's count the traffic stopped falling on 14 August, and the price has risen 42 percent since.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-19-strait-stopped-changing
Tehran's wire says crude is climbing because Hormuz traffic is falling. On this site's count the traffic stopped falling on 14 August, and the price has risen 42 percent since.
https://chokepointdata.com/#analysis/2026-09-19-strait-stopped-changing
Chokepoint Data
Chokepoint Data — the Strait of Hormuz crisis, computed
Every major event of the crisis pinned to Brent crude, daily transit data, attacks, official statements, and prediction-market odds — computed, not asserted.