한국투자증권_기타_20220103181518.pdf
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한투 정호윤
게임
[블록체인 게임, 올해가 본게임]
2022년은 게임사 전반에 대한 관심이 필요
따라서 올해는 게임사 전반에 대한 관심이 필요하다는 게 당사의 생각이다
이유는 두 가지이다 우선 국내 게임사들이 글로벌 게임사들과 비교했을 때 빠르게 P2E 게임들의 출시를 진행할 예정이며 앞서 언급한 것처럼 현재 게임 시장은 P2E 게임들이 흥행 측면에서 두각을 드러낼 가능성이 높은 상황이기 때문이다
따라서 P2E 게임의 출시를 준비하고 있는 게임사 전반에 대해 출시일정 등 뉴스 플로우를 면밀히 체크할 필요가 있다. 특히 장르적으로 MMORPG 와 P2E를 결합하거나 혹은 자체적으로 토큰 개발을 통해 블록체인 게임 플랫폼화를 준비하는 기업들에는 더욱 더 깊은 관심을 기울일 필요가 있다
MMORPG는 토큰의 수요와 공급이라는 밸런스 측면에서 안정적인 토큰 이코노미 가격 관점을 유지해나가기 비교적 용이한 장르라는 이점이 있으며 블록체인 게임 플랫폼은 가상자산의 가치 및 플랫폼이라는 측면에서 밸류에이션 프리미엄을 부여 받을 가능성이 높기 때문이다
엔씨소프트 , 컴투스 컴투스홀딩스 카카오게임즈 네오위즈홀딩스 등의 기업들이 이러한 조건에 부합하며 이들 기업들에는 특히 더 관심을 기울일 필요가 있다고 판단한다
게임
[블록체인 게임, 올해가 본게임]
2022년은 게임사 전반에 대한 관심이 필요
따라서 올해는 게임사 전반에 대한 관심이 필요하다는 게 당사의 생각이다
이유는 두 가지이다 우선 국내 게임사들이 글로벌 게임사들과 비교했을 때 빠르게 P2E 게임들의 출시를 진행할 예정이며 앞서 언급한 것처럼 현재 게임 시장은 P2E 게임들이 흥행 측면에서 두각을 드러낼 가능성이 높은 상황이기 때문이다
따라서 P2E 게임의 출시를 준비하고 있는 게임사 전반에 대해 출시일정 등 뉴스 플로우를 면밀히 체크할 필요가 있다. 특히 장르적으로 MMORPG 와 P2E를 결합하거나 혹은 자체적으로 토큰 개발을 통해 블록체인 게임 플랫폼화를 준비하는 기업들에는 더욱 더 깊은 관심을 기울일 필요가 있다
MMORPG는 토큰의 수요와 공급이라는 밸런스 측면에서 안정적인 토큰 이코노미 가격 관점을 유지해나가기 비교적 용이한 장르라는 이점이 있으며 블록체인 게임 플랫폼은 가상자산의 가치 및 플랫폼이라는 측면에서 밸류에이션 프리미엄을 부여 받을 가능성이 높기 때문이다
엔씨소프트 , 컴투스 컴투스홀딩스 카카오게임즈 네오위즈홀딩스 등의 기업들이 이러한 조건에 부합하며 이들 기업들에는 특히 더 관심을 기울일 필요가 있다고 판단한다
블룸버그의 각 기관별 BASE CASE 2022년 전망 요약입니다 (ABC 순)
Amundi Asset Management
Global growth will return to potential after the peak, as cyclical stimulus fades. Inflation will prove to be permanent and uncertain, fueled by supply shortages and scarcity all around. Desynchronization within growth and inflation trends are back with a vengeance, and globalization will take a hit.
AXA Investment Managers
While Covid will remain an issue, the increase in inflation rates around the world is likely to be the key concern. Central banks have been trying to increase inflation in recent years and are now faced with potentially having to reduce it. To do that, interest rates will need to go up in several economies and that will have very different implications for bond and equity market returns, and economic growth.
Bank of America
We’re market bearish; “rates shock” in 2022 to follow “inflation shock” of 2021 and “growth shock” of 2020. Financial conditions set to tighten via Wall Street and/or policy action. Asset prices driven by rates and profits. Capital preservation will grow as a theme in the year ahead.
Barclays Private Bank
As the world moves on from the pandemic, 2022 is likely to be characterized by slower economic growth, higher inflation, elevated volatility, and ultimately outperformance of equities over bonds. But in this uncertain environment, proper diversification and active management remain key to improve portfolio performance.
BCA Research
Economic growth will be above trend in developed markets in 2022. A China recovery is much more likely in the second half of the year than going into 2022. We see 60% chance of above trend growth and inflation, a 30% chance of mild stagflation and a 10% chance of recession.
BlackRock Investment Institute
We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful restart of economic activity will be delayed (but not derailed) due to new virus strains, in our view. Central banks will start to raise rates but remain more tolerant of inflation. We see inflation settling above pre-Covid trends – we’re going to be living with inflation. We have dialed back our risk-taking given the wide range of potential outcomes.
BNP Paribas
While many see a risk of stagflation, we are more bullish. We expect global growth to exceed both consensus expectations and its trend rate in 2022 and 2023. Our bullishness does not apply across all regions, notably not to China, where we see risks to our 5.3% 2022 growth forecast as remaining to the downside, despite policy support.
BNY Mellon Wealth Management
We believe we are in the mid-cycle of the recovery, which brings slower economic and earnings growth compared with levels earlier in the cycle, slightly higher inflation and an unwinding of central banks’ accommodative policies. We believe these factors can still be positive for risk assets in the coming year, albeit with more modest expectations for returns.
Citi
We see lower growth and inflation momentum next year, globally. However, allthough a sharp slowdown from 2021, the world economy will still enjoy a growth rate of around 4.2%—that should be considered exceptionally strong against a background where average global growth over the past 30 years has been close to 3.5%.
Citi Global Wealth Investments
The economic recovery and bull market are maturing, with moderate growth expected ahead. We believe portfolios should evolve to provide exposure to more defensive sectors, quality firms and dividend growth strategies.
Columbia Threadneedle
Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change and the economic backdrop may present opportunities for investment. We expect the recent divergence of performance of growth versus value companies will become more modest.
Amundi Asset Management
Global growth will return to potential after the peak, as cyclical stimulus fades. Inflation will prove to be permanent and uncertain, fueled by supply shortages and scarcity all around. Desynchronization within growth and inflation trends are back with a vengeance, and globalization will take a hit.
AXA Investment Managers
While Covid will remain an issue, the increase in inflation rates around the world is likely to be the key concern. Central banks have been trying to increase inflation in recent years and are now faced with potentially having to reduce it. To do that, interest rates will need to go up in several economies and that will have very different implications for bond and equity market returns, and economic growth.
Bank of America
We’re market bearish; “rates shock” in 2022 to follow “inflation shock” of 2021 and “growth shock” of 2020. Financial conditions set to tighten via Wall Street and/or policy action. Asset prices driven by rates and profits. Capital preservation will grow as a theme in the year ahead.
Barclays Private Bank
As the world moves on from the pandemic, 2022 is likely to be characterized by slower economic growth, higher inflation, elevated volatility, and ultimately outperformance of equities over bonds. But in this uncertain environment, proper diversification and active management remain key to improve portfolio performance.
BCA Research
Economic growth will be above trend in developed markets in 2022. A China recovery is much more likely in the second half of the year than going into 2022. We see 60% chance of above trend growth and inflation, a 30% chance of mild stagflation and a 10% chance of recession.
BlackRock Investment Institute
We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful restart of economic activity will be delayed (but not derailed) due to new virus strains, in our view. Central banks will start to raise rates but remain more tolerant of inflation. We see inflation settling above pre-Covid trends – we’re going to be living with inflation. We have dialed back our risk-taking given the wide range of potential outcomes.
BNP Paribas
While many see a risk of stagflation, we are more bullish. We expect global growth to exceed both consensus expectations and its trend rate in 2022 and 2023. Our bullishness does not apply across all regions, notably not to China, where we see risks to our 5.3% 2022 growth forecast as remaining to the downside, despite policy support.
BNY Mellon Wealth Management
We believe we are in the mid-cycle of the recovery, which brings slower economic and earnings growth compared with levels earlier in the cycle, slightly higher inflation and an unwinding of central banks’ accommodative policies. We believe these factors can still be positive for risk assets in the coming year, albeit with more modest expectations for returns.
Citi
We see lower growth and inflation momentum next year, globally. However, allthough a sharp slowdown from 2021, the world economy will still enjoy a growth rate of around 4.2%—that should be considered exceptionally strong against a background where average global growth over the past 30 years has been close to 3.5%.
Citi Global Wealth Investments
The economic recovery and bull market are maturing, with moderate growth expected ahead. We believe portfolios should evolve to provide exposure to more defensive sectors, quality firms and dividend growth strategies.
Columbia Threadneedle
Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change and the economic backdrop may present opportunities for investment. We expect the recent divergence of performance of growth versus value companies will become more modest.
Credit Suisse
Global economic growth looks set to be above trend again in 2022 at 4.3%. As social distancing rules are relaxed further, consumption of services such as restaurants or travel should pick up, supporting the services part of the economy. Strong goods demand should result in a pickup in production once supply chain problems start to ease. As a result, industrial production looks set to increase as well.
DWS
DWS expects strong growth and declining inflationary pressure in 2022.
Federated Hermes
In our baseline macro scenario for 2022, the economic recovery from the Covid-induced recession will continue, although at a slower and less volatile pace than in 2021. The slowdown will likely largely reflect a physiological normalization in growth rates, as the initial impact from the re-opening of the economies and the sugar rush from fiscal and monetary stimulus start to fade.
Fidelity
The coming year will be defined by a number of key decisions taken by policymakers around the globe. The major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect. Their choices will be especially tricky given growth momentum is starting to slow rapidly.
Franklin Templeton
Over a longer-term horizon, we believe global stocks still have greater performance potential than global bonds, reflecting only slightly slower growth expectations. With interest rates starting from relatively low levels in developed markets, overall return expectations from all fixed-income assets remain relatively low, which would drag down asset returns generally.
Generali Investments
A fifth global wave rises as we enter the third year of the pandemic, yet we retain a positive view on the economic recovery. The tail risk of a dangerous variant remains, as vaccines have not been a circuit breaker; but they have successfully reduced the risk of severe cases. New drugs are also on the way, and we assume our social and economic lives will slowly normalize in 2022. This recovery has legs, namely consumer spending and capex.
Goldman Sachs
We expect less impressive returns for risky assets in line with a more mature cycle, with the best opportunities in macro divergence and cycle longevity after the synchronized rapid rebound in 2021. Our economists expect inflation to moderate and our rates strategists expect only a modest rise in long-term rates through 2022.
HSBC
Contrary to the risks in 2021, investors will be confronted with much more fundamental headwinds: 1) peak macro, 2) declining credit impulse, 3) fiscal drag, 4) over-optimistic growth expectations, 5) valuation headwinds from less liquidity provision, 6) higher input prices, but 7) also fading inflationary base effects.
HSBC Asset Management
The prevailing combination of booming goods demand and hamstrung supply chains is set to continue as we head into 2022. Demand/supply imbalances, reinforced by gradual policy normalization, will weigh on GDP. For the main economies, our scenario is that growth will be in a 4% to 5% range, with the U.K. and China towards the top, and the U.S. and Europe towards the bottom. That implies we should expect high single-digit profits growth, even with rising costs pressuring margins.
HSBC Global Private Bank
As we move into 2022, the economy has moved from the reopening to the mid-cycle stage. In the mid-cycle, equity market returns typically slow but remain respectable, and volatility picks up.
JPMorgan
Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. We believe this will produce a strong cyclical recovery, a return of global mobility, and strong growth in consumer and corporate spending, within the backdrop of still-easy monetary policy.
Global economic growth looks set to be above trend again in 2022 at 4.3%. As social distancing rules are relaxed further, consumption of services such as restaurants or travel should pick up, supporting the services part of the economy. Strong goods demand should result in a pickup in production once supply chain problems start to ease. As a result, industrial production looks set to increase as well.
DWS
DWS expects strong growth and declining inflationary pressure in 2022.
Federated Hermes
In our baseline macro scenario for 2022, the economic recovery from the Covid-induced recession will continue, although at a slower and less volatile pace than in 2021. The slowdown will likely largely reflect a physiological normalization in growth rates, as the initial impact from the re-opening of the economies and the sugar rush from fiscal and monetary stimulus start to fade.
Fidelity
The coming year will be defined by a number of key decisions taken by policymakers around the globe. The major central banks will have to decide what to do about higher inflation, which we believe will be stickier than they currently expect. Their choices will be especially tricky given growth momentum is starting to slow rapidly.
Franklin Templeton
Over a longer-term horizon, we believe global stocks still have greater performance potential than global bonds, reflecting only slightly slower growth expectations. With interest rates starting from relatively low levels in developed markets, overall return expectations from all fixed-income assets remain relatively low, which would drag down asset returns generally.
Generali Investments
A fifth global wave rises as we enter the third year of the pandemic, yet we retain a positive view on the economic recovery. The tail risk of a dangerous variant remains, as vaccines have not been a circuit breaker; but they have successfully reduced the risk of severe cases. New drugs are also on the way, and we assume our social and economic lives will slowly normalize in 2022. This recovery has legs, namely consumer spending and capex.
Goldman Sachs
We expect less impressive returns for risky assets in line with a more mature cycle, with the best opportunities in macro divergence and cycle longevity after the synchronized rapid rebound in 2021. Our economists expect inflation to moderate and our rates strategists expect only a modest rise in long-term rates through 2022.
HSBC
Contrary to the risks in 2021, investors will be confronted with much more fundamental headwinds: 1) peak macro, 2) declining credit impulse, 3) fiscal drag, 4) over-optimistic growth expectations, 5) valuation headwinds from less liquidity provision, 6) higher input prices, but 7) also fading inflationary base effects.
HSBC Asset Management
The prevailing combination of booming goods demand and hamstrung supply chains is set to continue as we head into 2022. Demand/supply imbalances, reinforced by gradual policy normalization, will weigh on GDP. For the main economies, our scenario is that growth will be in a 4% to 5% range, with the U.K. and China towards the top, and the U.S. and Europe towards the bottom. That implies we should expect high single-digit profits growth, even with rising costs pressuring margins.
HSBC Global Private Bank
As we move into 2022, the economy has moved from the reopening to the mid-cycle stage. In the mid-cycle, equity market returns typically slow but remain respectable, and volatility picks up.
JPMorgan
Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. We believe this will produce a strong cyclical recovery, a return of global mobility, and strong growth in consumer and corporate spending, within the backdrop of still-easy monetary policy.
JPMorgan Asset Management
Our message is optimistic: Despite low return expectations in public markets, we see plentiful opportunities for investors. Avoid the tendency to focus exclusively on a negative outcome; concentrate instead on building portfolios that capture today’s above-trend growth and are nimble enough to adapt as the environment evolves. Above all, investors will want to avoid assets that are serial losers.
Kempen Capital Management
We are reasonably optimistic about economic growth prospects in 2022. Our forecast is for above-trend growth in the U.S., euro zone and Japan, although we expect China to struggle to achieve its target of 5.5% next year. The reason for our optimism is that many countries have not yet fully recovered from the pandemic.
Mizuho
Mizuho’s big picture macro view is that 2022 will be a year of two halves. The first half will center on dollar strength and a risk asset correction in the second quarter, which will ultimately mean that Fed hikes do not get delivered as quickly as priced.
Morgan Stanley
Growth improves and inflation moderates, but central bank buying slows and rates rise. Own equities in Europe and Japan, securitized credit, the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, and resist buying Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and emerging-market assets until more is in the price.
Morgan Stanley Wealth
2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes. The stock market seems to discount a scenario in which the winners of the past cycle will repeat. Bond market pricing suggests accelerated interest rate hikes in 2022 and that unchecked inflation will be destructive to the cycle. We suggest a third scenario: a robust global recovery; a moderation of U.S. growth and inflation; and more balanced monetary and fiscal policies.
NatWest
As we look ahead to 2022, we feel optimistic once again, and this time with greater belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us – with most economies in some stage of reopening or having reopened. But the outlook is by no means more certain than it was a year ago, and big questions remain over what the global post-pandemic economy will look like.
Ned Davis Research
The year ahead should include plenty of reversals. Several major central banks will send interest rates higher. Global economic growth will head lower. Earnings growth will roll over. Market valuations will start to worsen. The uncertainty surrounding these changes should make for a more volatile year. But not all of them will be bearish for equities. If the world continues to make progress in the battle against Covid, supply chain constraints should reverse, helping to turn around the trend of rising inflation.
Neuberger Berman
We are moving from the recovery phase of the current cycle to its middle phase. We believe that the willingness of fiscal and monetary authorities to support the cycle is even greater today. Inflation and new redundancies built into supply chains could introduce more business-cycle and market volatility, but we think we could be in for another long expansion.
Northern Trust
We expect it to be a year of transitions—in Fed policy, fiscal spending, inflation and pandemic management. But for the key underpinnings of stock and bond prices—corporate earnings and interest rates—we see continued strong earnings growth alongside anchored long-term interest rates. We expect a good combination of positive growth and tamer inflation, and expect central bank policy to remain dovish in 2022.
Nuveen
2021 provided close to ideal conditions for economic growth and risk assets like equities, but we see the environment as more balanced heading into 2022. Households are saving less now than they were a year ago and government stimulus is likely tapped out, but underlying fundamentals continue to strengthen, pointing to positive performance from credit markets, infrastructure investments, private real assets and cyclical parts of the global equity market.
Our message is optimistic: Despite low return expectations in public markets, we see plentiful opportunities for investors. Avoid the tendency to focus exclusively on a negative outcome; concentrate instead on building portfolios that capture today’s above-trend growth and are nimble enough to adapt as the environment evolves. Above all, investors will want to avoid assets that are serial losers.
Kempen Capital Management
We are reasonably optimistic about economic growth prospects in 2022. Our forecast is for above-trend growth in the U.S., euro zone and Japan, although we expect China to struggle to achieve its target of 5.5% next year. The reason for our optimism is that many countries have not yet fully recovered from the pandemic.
Mizuho
Mizuho’s big picture macro view is that 2022 will be a year of two halves. The first half will center on dollar strength and a risk asset correction in the second quarter, which will ultimately mean that Fed hikes do not get delivered as quickly as priced.
Morgan Stanley
Growth improves and inflation moderates, but central bank buying slows and rates rise. Own equities in Europe and Japan, securitized credit, the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, and resist buying Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and emerging-market assets until more is in the price.
Morgan Stanley Wealth
2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes. The stock market seems to discount a scenario in which the winners of the past cycle will repeat. Bond market pricing suggests accelerated interest rate hikes in 2022 and that unchecked inflation will be destructive to the cycle. We suggest a third scenario: a robust global recovery; a moderation of U.S. growth and inflation; and more balanced monetary and fiscal policies.
NatWest
As we look ahead to 2022, we feel optimistic once again, and this time with greater belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us – with most economies in some stage of reopening or having reopened. But the outlook is by no means more certain than it was a year ago, and big questions remain over what the global post-pandemic economy will look like.
Ned Davis Research
The year ahead should include plenty of reversals. Several major central banks will send interest rates higher. Global economic growth will head lower. Earnings growth will roll over. Market valuations will start to worsen. The uncertainty surrounding these changes should make for a more volatile year. But not all of them will be bearish for equities. If the world continues to make progress in the battle against Covid, supply chain constraints should reverse, helping to turn around the trend of rising inflation.
Neuberger Berman
We are moving from the recovery phase of the current cycle to its middle phase. We believe that the willingness of fiscal and monetary authorities to support the cycle is even greater today. Inflation and new redundancies built into supply chains could introduce more business-cycle and market volatility, but we think we could be in for another long expansion.
Northern Trust
We expect it to be a year of transitions—in Fed policy, fiscal spending, inflation and pandemic management. But for the key underpinnings of stock and bond prices—corporate earnings and interest rates—we see continued strong earnings growth alongside anchored long-term interest rates. We expect a good combination of positive growth and tamer inflation, and expect central bank policy to remain dovish in 2022.
Nuveen
2021 provided close to ideal conditions for economic growth and risk assets like equities, but we see the environment as more balanced heading into 2022. Households are saving less now than they were a year ago and government stimulus is likely tapped out, but underlying fundamentals continue to strengthen, pointing to positive performance from credit markets, infrastructure investments, private real assets and cyclical parts of the global equity market.
Pictet Asset Management
For all the fears that markets are at a turning point, next year is likely to result in a continuation of 2021’s trends, albeit with “less of the same.” The economic and market recovery triggered by the removal of Covid lockdown measures is intact, if in its final phases.
Pimco
Looking to 2022, we expect positive global economic growth and elevated inflation that moderates over the course of the year, though we see upside risks to our inflation forecast. As we believe the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk.
Principal Global Investors
In 2022, with global vaccinations set to hit key thresholds, the pandemic should no longer monopolize headlines. Even so, while not significantly impacting global demand, continued progress toward Covid-19 vaccination will be vital in resolving supply-chain bottlenecks and, in turn, unwinding elevated price pressures.
Robeco
Equities and commodities remain the favored asset classes. Our central case for expected returns is based on moderate inflation and transitory inflationary pressure and reasonable growth; the stagflation scenario is very unlikely.
Societe Generale
2022 looks set to be a challenging year, in which there is likely to be more normalization in fiscal and monetary policy. We remain positive on equities. We also seek exposure to real assets that may perform well in a context of higher inflation and potentially lower real yields.
State Street
As the market moves past peak momentum and accommodation, the current economic recovery, which will likely be uneven and multi-layered, will continue to deliver above-potential global growth in 2022. Although markets should continue to climb, certain issues and challenges do warrant an evaluation of asset allocations and investment strategies for downside protection.
TD Securities
We think 2022 will be a function, ultimately, of the unwind of central bank accommodation. The speed of the exit will be different across central banks and relative to what’s priced in now. The year is likely to be marked by volatility across the economic outlook globally.
Truist Wealth
We have conviction that the global economy is on solid footing and will grow well-above trend. We expect the economy, earnings, and stock prices to make fresh highs in 2022, but at a moderating pace. We are realistic that Covid-19 challenges remain and that access to vaccines and advanced medical care has created a bifurcated global economic recovery.
UBS
2022 is expected to be a year of two halves, with high rates of economic growth and inflation in the first half, giving way to lower growth and inflation in the second.
UBS Asset Management
We believe the expansion is poised to deliver stronger nominal growth than investors have become accustomed to. However, in the near term, the new omicron variant is causing mobility restrictions that may weigh on activity, particularly in Europe. Though there is much uncertainty, we do not anticipate that this variant will cause a deeper or more prolonged drag on growth compared to previous waves of the virus.
UniCredit
We are lowering our global GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 4.2%, as supply bottlenecks and higher inflation last for longer than anticipated. The U.S. will likely recover its pre-pandemic GDP trend by the fourth quarter of 2022, while the euro zone might get there a year later. Monetary policy will gradually normalize. We expect the Fed to hike rates. The ECB’s QE will likely continue at a slower pace into 2023, with no change in policy rates.
Vanguard
Although the Covid-19 pandemic will remain a critical factor in 2022, the outlook for macroeconomic policy will likely be more crucial. Our outlook for the global economy will be shaped by how the support and stimulus enacted to combat the pandemic are withdrawn - a new challenge for policymakers and a source of risk for financial markets.
For all the fears that markets are at a turning point, next year is likely to result in a continuation of 2021’s trends, albeit with “less of the same.” The economic and market recovery triggered by the removal of Covid lockdown measures is intact, if in its final phases.
Pimco
Looking to 2022, we expect positive global economic growth and elevated inflation that moderates over the course of the year, though we see upside risks to our inflation forecast. As we believe the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk.
Principal Global Investors
In 2022, with global vaccinations set to hit key thresholds, the pandemic should no longer monopolize headlines. Even so, while not significantly impacting global demand, continued progress toward Covid-19 vaccination will be vital in resolving supply-chain bottlenecks and, in turn, unwinding elevated price pressures.
Robeco
Equities and commodities remain the favored asset classes. Our central case for expected returns is based on moderate inflation and transitory inflationary pressure and reasonable growth; the stagflation scenario is very unlikely.
Societe Generale
2022 looks set to be a challenging year, in which there is likely to be more normalization in fiscal and monetary policy. We remain positive on equities. We also seek exposure to real assets that may perform well in a context of higher inflation and potentially lower real yields.
State Street
As the market moves past peak momentum and accommodation, the current economic recovery, which will likely be uneven and multi-layered, will continue to deliver above-potential global growth in 2022. Although markets should continue to climb, certain issues and challenges do warrant an evaluation of asset allocations and investment strategies for downside protection.
TD Securities
We think 2022 will be a function, ultimately, of the unwind of central bank accommodation. The speed of the exit will be different across central banks and relative to what’s priced in now. The year is likely to be marked by volatility across the economic outlook globally.
Truist Wealth
We have conviction that the global economy is on solid footing and will grow well-above trend. We expect the economy, earnings, and stock prices to make fresh highs in 2022, but at a moderating pace. We are realistic that Covid-19 challenges remain and that access to vaccines and advanced medical care has created a bifurcated global economic recovery.
UBS
2022 is expected to be a year of two halves, with high rates of economic growth and inflation in the first half, giving way to lower growth and inflation in the second.
UBS Asset Management
We believe the expansion is poised to deliver stronger nominal growth than investors have become accustomed to. However, in the near term, the new omicron variant is causing mobility restrictions that may weigh on activity, particularly in Europe. Though there is much uncertainty, we do not anticipate that this variant will cause a deeper or more prolonged drag on growth compared to previous waves of the virus.
UniCredit
We are lowering our global GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 4.2%, as supply bottlenecks and higher inflation last for longer than anticipated. The U.S. will likely recover its pre-pandemic GDP trend by the fourth quarter of 2022, while the euro zone might get there a year later. Monetary policy will gradually normalize. We expect the Fed to hike rates. The ECB’s QE will likely continue at a slower pace into 2023, with no change in policy rates.
Vanguard
Although the Covid-19 pandemic will remain a critical factor in 2022, the outlook for macroeconomic policy will likely be more crucial. Our outlook for the global economy will be shaped by how the support and stimulus enacted to combat the pandemic are withdrawn - a new challenge for policymakers and a source of risk for financial markets.
Wells Fargo
Central banks tighten policy, making us say goodbye to the punch bowl. We expect many developed market central banks to raise policy rates in 2022.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
We believe 2022 is poised to be a transition year with unsynchronized global growth led by the U.S. We see opportunities in U.S. assets over international ones. U.S leadership should support a stronger dollar—a negative for international asset returns.
Central banks tighten policy, making us say goodbye to the punch bowl. We expect many developed market central banks to raise policy rates in 2022.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
We believe 2022 is poised to be a transition year with unsynchronized global growth led by the U.S. We see opportunities in U.S. assets over international ones. U.S leadership should support a stronger dollar—a negative for international asset returns.
미 시장은 새해 첫 개장일에 상승세를 나타냈습니다
다우 +0.68%, S&P500 +0.6%, 나스닥 +1.2%
애플이 2%이상 상승 하면서 미 사상 최초로 장중 시총 3조달러를 돌파 했고 테슬라가 4분기 인도량이 애널리스트 예상치를 웃돌면서 13%대 급등하면서 시장을 주도 했습니다
3% 상승한 골드만삭스를 비롯한 은행업종도 올해 금리인상에 대한 기대감으로 강한 상승을 했는데 웰스파고는 바클레이의 의견상향으로 5%대 강세 마감 했습니다
골드만삭스가 톱픽으로 선정한 AMD가 4%대 상승한 것을 비롯해 마이크론 마블등 반도체 업체들의 강세가 이어졌으며 TSMC는 7% 넘게 상승했습니다
제이피모건은 1분기부터 인플레이션이 완화될 것이라고 밝혔습니다
우리시장은 어제 양호한 상승 마감을 했으나 종목별로 변동성이 커지는 모습이었습니다
금일은 미국 시장의 영향으로 반도체를 비롯한 은행주들이 양호한 출발을 할 것으로 보이고
어제 급락 했던 일부 종목들인 컴투스홀딩스 네오위즈홀딩스등도 반등을 시도할 것으로 보입니다
올해의 기대감 업종 중 하나인 우주산업 관련주들도 주목해야 할 것이며 2차전지 관련주들도 테슬라의 영향으로 일부 반등 시도 할 것으로 보이나 전체적으로는 LG에너지솔루션 기관 수요예측이 끝날 때 까지는 조심스러운 상황으로 보입니다
어제 금융투자의 매도압력은 생각보다는 다소 줄었으나 기대했던 개인들의 순매수 역시 예상보다는 다소 약한 모습이면서 코스닥은 외국인의 매물에 시달리는 시장이었습니다
금일도 성투 하시기 바랍니다
다우 +0.68%, S&P500 +0.6%, 나스닥 +1.2%
애플이 2%이상 상승 하면서 미 사상 최초로 장중 시총 3조달러를 돌파 했고 테슬라가 4분기 인도량이 애널리스트 예상치를 웃돌면서 13%대 급등하면서 시장을 주도 했습니다
3% 상승한 골드만삭스를 비롯한 은행업종도 올해 금리인상에 대한 기대감으로 강한 상승을 했는데 웰스파고는 바클레이의 의견상향으로 5%대 강세 마감 했습니다
골드만삭스가 톱픽으로 선정한 AMD가 4%대 상승한 것을 비롯해 마이크론 마블등 반도체 업체들의 강세가 이어졌으며 TSMC는 7% 넘게 상승했습니다
제이피모건은 1분기부터 인플레이션이 완화될 것이라고 밝혔습니다
우리시장은 어제 양호한 상승 마감을 했으나 종목별로 변동성이 커지는 모습이었습니다
금일은 미국 시장의 영향으로 반도체를 비롯한 은행주들이 양호한 출발을 할 것으로 보이고
어제 급락 했던 일부 종목들인 컴투스홀딩스 네오위즈홀딩스등도 반등을 시도할 것으로 보입니다
올해의 기대감 업종 중 하나인 우주산업 관련주들도 주목해야 할 것이며 2차전지 관련주들도 테슬라의 영향으로 일부 반등 시도 할 것으로 보이나 전체적으로는 LG에너지솔루션 기관 수요예측이 끝날 때 까지는 조심스러운 상황으로 보입니다
어제 금융투자의 매도압력은 생각보다는 다소 줄었으나 기대했던 개인들의 순매수 역시 예상보다는 다소 약한 모습이면서 코스닥은 외국인의 매물에 시달리는 시장이었습니다
금일도 성투 하시기 바랍니다
삼성증권_주식_이슈전략_20220103210230.pdf
1.7 MB
삼성증권 김용구
2022년 1분기 주식시장 전망과 전략
시소 (Seesaw)
▶️ 1분기 KOSPI 2,850(12M Fwd P/E 10.5배) ~ 3,150pt(12M Fwd P/E 11.5배)의 중립수준 주가흐름 전개를 예상
• 월별 Index Target: 1월 2,850 ~ 3,050pt, 2월 2,900 ~ 3,100pt, 3월 2,950 ~ 3,150pt
▶️ 국내외 증시 초점은 익히 알려진 확정적 악재와 기대를 넘어서는 가변적 호재간 시소(Seesaw) 게임 구도에 집중될 것
• 악재: 1) Hawkish Fed + Stagflation + 오미크론 삼중고, 2) 금융투자 PR 매수차익잔고의 1분기 청산 가능성, 3) LG에너지솔루션 상장에 따른 수급 공동화 우려
• 호재: 1) 양회 전후 중국의 공세적 정책부양 기대, 2) 경구용 치료제(화이자 ‘팍스로비드’, 머크 ‘몰누피라비르’)의 코로나 게임 체인저 가능성
Top 10 picks: 삼성전자/삼성바이오로직스/현대차/SK이노베이션/하이브/CJ ENM/이마트/천보/한미반도체/현대건설
2022년 1분기 주식시장 전망과 전략
시소 (Seesaw)
▶️ 1분기 KOSPI 2,850(12M Fwd P/E 10.5배) ~ 3,150pt(12M Fwd P/E 11.5배)의 중립수준 주가흐름 전개를 예상
• 월별 Index Target: 1월 2,850 ~ 3,050pt, 2월 2,900 ~ 3,100pt, 3월 2,950 ~ 3,150pt
▶️ 국내외 증시 초점은 익히 알려진 확정적 악재와 기대를 넘어서는 가변적 호재간 시소(Seesaw) 게임 구도에 집중될 것
• 악재: 1) Hawkish Fed + Stagflation + 오미크론 삼중고, 2) 금융투자 PR 매수차익잔고의 1분기 청산 가능성, 3) LG에너지솔루션 상장에 따른 수급 공동화 우려
• 호재: 1) 양회 전후 중국의 공세적 정책부양 기대, 2) 경구용 치료제(화이자 ‘팍스로비드’, 머크 ‘몰누피라비르’)의 코로나 게임 체인저 가능성
Top 10 picks: 삼성전자/삼성바이오로직스/현대차/SK이노베이션/하이브/CJ ENM/이마트/천보/한미반도체/현대건설
유진투자증권_기타_20220104073005.pdf
18.1 MB
유진 코스닥벤처팀
2021년 국내 IPO시장 분석 및
2022년 시장 전망
169페이지입니다
2021년 국내 IPO시장 분석 및
2022년 시장 전망
169페이지입니다
신한금융투자_산업_제약_20220104073533.pdf
1.9 MB
신한 제약
정부 마이크로바이옴 산업 육성 코멘트
과학기술정보통신부, 1.2조원 규모 마이크로바이옴 사업 추진 계획 발표
2026년까지 마이크로바이옴 의약품 시장 규모 연평균 93% 성장 전망
글로벌에서는 세레스 가장 앞서, 국내는 지놈앤컴퍼니, 고바이오랩 대표적
정부 마이크로바이옴 산업 육성 코멘트
과학기술정보통신부, 1.2조원 규모 마이크로바이옴 사업 추진 계획 발표
2026년까지 마이크로바이옴 의약품 시장 규모 연평균 93% 성장 전망
글로벌에서는 세레스 가장 앞서, 국내는 지놈앤컴퍼니, 고바이오랩 대표적
미래에셋증권_이녹스첨단소재_20220104073642.pdf
140.7 KB
미래 김철중
이녹스첨단소재
[4Q도 서프라이즈 전망, 성장성 대비 저평가]
목표주가 65,000원으로 상향(기존 55,000원, 무상증자 반영)
4Q21 매출액 1,340억원(+57% YoY), 영업이익 306억원(+153% YoY) 예상
21년 실적 성장 동력, 22년에도 여전히 유효
이녹스첨단소재
[4Q도 서프라이즈 전망, 성장성 대비 저평가]
목표주가 65,000원으로 상향(기존 55,000원, 무상증자 반영)
4Q21 매출액 1,340억원(+57% YoY), 영업이익 306억원(+153% YoY) 예상
21년 실적 성장 동력, 22년에도 여전히 유효
하나금융투자_KCC_20220103170404.pdf
1.7 MB
하나 윤재성
KCC
[실리콘의 영업가치가 전혀 반영되지 않은 시총]
4Q21 영업이익 컨센 13% 상회, 2022년 사상 최대 실적 전망
적용 어플리케이션 증가: 2022년은 EV향 매출 확대에 주목
목표가 60만원 상향 현재가 30만9천원
KCC
[실리콘의 영업가치가 전혀 반영되지 않은 시총]
4Q21 영업이익 컨센 13% 상회, 2022년 사상 최대 실적 전망
적용 어플리케이션 증가: 2022년은 EV향 매출 확대에 주목
목표가 60만원 상향 현재가 30만9천원
유안타증권_롯데정보통신_20220104073219.pdf
1.3 MB
유안타 이창영
롯데정보통신
[세가지의 새로운 성장 엔진 장착]
전기차 충전 사업
메타버스 플랫폼 사업
자율주행 셔틀버스
좋은건 다 하는건가요
롯데정보통신
[세가지의 새로운 성장 엔진 장착]
전기차 충전 사업
메타버스 플랫폼 사업
자율주행 셔틀버스
좋은건 다 하는건가요
NH투자증권_산업_반도체_및_관련장비_20220104073238.pdf
237.1 KB
NH 도현우
반도체산업
[GaN 수요 증가]
DB하이텍이 8인치 기반 GaN 공정 화합물 반도체 생산을 계획. 최근 GaN 반도체에 대한 신뢰성이 입증되고 가격이 하락. Apple 등 메이저테크 업체가 GaN 반도체 사용을 시작
GaN은 항상 관심에 둬야 합니다
반도체산업
[GaN 수요 증가]
DB하이텍이 8인치 기반 GaN 공정 화합물 반도체 생산을 계획. 최근 GaN 반도체에 대한 신뢰성이 입증되고 가격이 하락. Apple 등 메이저테크 업체가 GaN 반도체 사용을 시작
GaN은 항상 관심에 둬야 합니다
흥국증권_강스템바이오텍_20220104080543.pdf
678.3 KB
흥국 최종경
강스템바이오
[임상과 실적 개선 동시 본격화]
줄기세포 치료제 개발/제조, 비임상 CRO 사업
아토피, 류마티스 관절염, 골관절염 임상 개발 중
탈모증상완화 기능성 샴푸, 비임상 CRO 실적 기여
강스템바이오
[임상과 실적 개선 동시 본격화]
줄기세포 치료제 개발/제조, 비임상 CRO 사업
아토피, 류마티스 관절염, 골관절염 임상 개발 중
탈모증상완화 기능성 샴푸, 비임상 CRO 실적 기여
CLSA
하이브 51만원 매수 유지
네이버 56만2천원 매수 유지
현대모비스 32만원 매수 유지
SK하이닉스 17만5천원 매수 유지
삼성전자 10만5천원 매수 유지
하이브 51만원 매수 유지
네이버 56만2천원 매수 유지
현대모비스 32만원 매수 유지
SK하이닉스 17만5천원 매수 유지
삼성전자 10만5천원 매수 유지