contrarian move: applying behaviorial finance, im now long equity and crypto markets against fear of bubble and crash. i no longer see dotcom repeating.

the only thing i see is a normal market retracement and consolidation from digesting capex driven margin compression landscape on equities especially ai and its adjacent industries.

anyway, we all know when the real bull cycle will be at. my June 20 post (replied) here says it all. we will be in a long boring market before the real run up. your mind will tell you about opportunity cost, thesis not stacking up, to quit, and whatnot which is normal coz thats why we dont have a lot of retail left in the market when the real crypto bull market arrives and $BTC runs up. retail is all exhausted by then.

gn friends

im avoiding hype and sui coz of supply overhang.

so far, i only meddle with btc and eth indirectly thru digital asset treasuries.

gm friends

for geographic and emerging market diversification, i find $KSPI (Kazakhstan’s super app) attractive.

Kazakhstan sits directly on the China-Europe trade corridor, 85% of land-based China-Europe rail freight already passes through Kazakhstan. China–Kazakhstan trade reached $32.4B in the first seven months of 2026, +24.1% YoY. Trade corridor economic impact on middle class population comes from >2M jobs additional by 2040.

They expanded into Turkey by acquiring an e-commerce platform and a bank. In home country, Kaspi has 70% marketshare. Turkey is their base to serve EU and Middle East. Expect more cannibalizing investment expense for growth which may translate to compression in next few years. i see that as opportunity to accumulate albeit only a low single digit allocation for any portfolio.

Kaspi is currently in investment mode for growth but revenue growth is 15% yoy. Balance sheet has no leverage problem. Buying the stock here means we are paying premium on regulatory risk and geopolitics.

in my eyes, it looks like one of the biggest mispriced companies alongside GRAB where market compressed them on nearterm capex and overall macro noise.

point 1 to 7 all are happening at the same time.

gm

if you wanna look into subsectors, we have network, optics, quantum tech, thermal management, software. optics and quantum arent making headlines as much as the rest.

i dont like datacenter coz those are infra. infra tends to boom one time and stabilize into grand dad stocks.

$BTC levels (1M chart)
a friend pointed out 76k support based on structure
we have 76k support across 4 month trend from july on fib 0.382 which is the support below currently level but the candle still can cling onto current 80.2k support.

edit: added additional info

oil looks toppy on the othe rhand

one thing to note, btc has rallied post midterm in the past. i believe in market behavioral patterns. there’s a lot of fear in the market. cnn fear and greed is in extreme fear. btc usually took from 13 days to 3 months post midterm election before rallying. i will accumulate while i can. oil is bound to go back below 100 based on technical. why technical? macro looks like its getting tired and going to fade in behind the curtain as every war narrative did in the past. market usually stops caring when one thing keeps influencing it too frequently with short intervals. i believe the pattern will repeat.

credit risk is still below alert levels and no risk of being contagious atm albeit private credit shows a little crack but it’s still below the banks as they are managing fine while remaining profitable.

what are the levels for if btc is going up? well, knowing downside risk makes it easier to hold, accumulate, manage risk and expectations. every dip is not end of the world.

dotcom bubble and 2008 financial crisis canceled? this pullback sent us deeper into the trenches than those 2 crises in the past.

i never use this but people seem to like it. $BTC

my port for crypto btc, eth, hype exposure thru asst, bmnr, purr

gm friends

i figure i should cover how i plan to work with these treasury stocks in case some of you enter similar positon in the market and wait for underlying asset to peak as sell signal.

my exit from that port is on the 2 consecutive days of divergence. for example, if $ETH closes daily high on the first day and another high or range at the same lev on second day while $BMNR closes lower on the first day and fails to catch up or closes another daily low on the second day, that’s my exit and i’m gone regardless of how much high it can still go. full clip.

i think there’s nothing much left for me to say except accumulate while it lasts, dont go all in at every opportunity, dont fall for media’s fearmongering, and remember not every alt in single digit or sub $1 price is a 10x opportunity.

learn from my mistake of assuming large caps cant do multibag upsides - i thought $NVDA hit the ceiling when it was almost 1T but later, it touched 5T. now it’s above 5T. in the market, there’s no assumption. there’s only quantifiable data, evidence back outlook for upside and downside. things wont go our way just coz we like it.

numbers first, psychology second, then for the most part waiting for entry 90% of the time before actual execution. execution can be both letting go coz thesis got invalidated or the price never came to your level and ranging at the top without a meaningful pullback or actually buying the ticker and entering position coz it came to your level and thesis remains intact.

that’s everything for now. you guys got discussion chat to discuss and help each other in meaningful way. i read every single thing you guys say about the market.

i will be out for a while, about 2 weeks or so.

you can still tag me in discussion chat (comment room) for anything but wont be as active.

gm and see you all in future

edit: added some words i missed out to type