A fire has broken out at the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez (PNOS) refinery in Perm following a Ukrainian strike. Geolocation data from ASTRA and Dnipro OSINT confirms the facility was hit.
As one of Russia’s largest refineries, processing over 13 million tonnes of crude annually, PNOS produces aviation fuel, high-octane petrol, and lubricating oils for both the domestic market and export contracts. The complex is regarded as one of the most technologically advanced refining facilities in the Russian Federation.
Initial reports indicate damage to process trestles near the hydro-treatment unit. The operation targeted both the refinery and the linear production and dispatch station (LPDS). ASTRA notes this is the second strike on the facility within the last eight days.
Local authorities confirmed a hit on “one of the industrial facilities” but declined to name the target.
As one of Russia’s largest refineries, processing over 13 million tonnes of crude annually, PNOS produces aviation fuel, high-octane petrol, and lubricating oils for both the domestic market and export contracts. The complex is regarded as one of the most technologically advanced refining facilities in the Russian Federation.
Initial reports indicate damage to process trestles near the hydro-treatment unit. The operation targeted both the refinery and the linear production and dispatch station (LPDS). ASTRA notes this is the second strike on the facility within the last eight days.
Local authorities confirmed a hit on “one of the industrial facilities” but declined to name the target.
"Red Square is less important to us than the lives of the Ukrainian prisoners of war whom we can bring home," stated President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine and Russia have reached an agreement for a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, mediated by the United States. The deal includes a ceasefire scheduled for May 9, 10, and 11.
Zelenskyy has instructed operational teams to initiate the necessary exchange procedures. Expressing gratitude to the U.S. President and the administration for their diplomatic efforts, Kyiv now looks to Washington to ensure Moscow's full compliance with the terms of the agreement.
Ukraine and Russia have reached an agreement for a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, mediated by the United States. The deal includes a ceasefire scheduled for May 9, 10, and 11.
Zelenskyy has instructed operational teams to initiate the necessary exchange procedures. Expressing gratitude to the U.S. President and the administration for their diplomatic efforts, Kyiv now looks to Washington to ensure Moscow's full compliance with the terms of the agreement.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a decree regarding the organization of the Moscow parade on 9 May 2026. Following consultations with the United States and citing humanitarian grounds, the document authorizes the event to proceed.
“I hereby authorize the holding of a parade in Moscow (Russian Federation) on 9 May 2026.
Reflecting numerous appeals and humanitarian considerations identified during discussions with the American side, the Red Square area is excluded from Ukrainian strike plans for the duration of the parade, effective 8 May 2026. This exclusion applies from 10:00 Kyiv time on 9 May 2026.
Red Square coordinates: 55.754413 37.617733 55.755205 37.619181 55.753351 37.622854 55.752504 37.621538
This decree enters into force on the date of its signing.”
“I hereby authorize the holding of a parade in Moscow (Russian Federation) on 9 May 2026.
Reflecting numerous appeals and humanitarian considerations identified during discussions with the American side, the Red Square area is excluded from Ukrainian strike plans for the duration of the parade, effective 8 May 2026. This exclusion applies from 10:00 Kyiv time on 9 May 2026.
Red Square coordinates: 55.754413 37.617733 55.755205 37.619181 55.753351 37.622854 55.752504 37.621538
This decree enters into force on the date of its signing.”
Donald Trump has announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, alongside a reciprocal exchange of 1,000 prisoners.
President Donald J. Trump: “I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine. The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II. This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country. This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War. Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day. Thank you for your attention to this matter! “.
The truce spans May 9, 10, and 11, incorporating the 48-hour window requested by the Ukrainian side. Negotiation dynamics indicate that Vladimir Putin failed to secure a unilateral ceasefire through threats alone. To reach an agreement, the Kremlin required Donald Trump’s mediation, signaling the failure of Russia’s strategy of diktat and escalation.
The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap is the largest such operation in years. This development represents a clear diplomatic success for Kyiv. The remaining question is the extent to which the Russian Federation will actually adhere to the ceasefire terms.
President Donald J. Trump: “I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine. The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II. This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country. This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War. Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day. Thank you for your attention to this matter! “.
The truce spans May 9, 10, and 11, incorporating the 48-hour window requested by the Ukrainian side. Negotiation dynamics indicate that Vladimir Putin failed to secure a unilateral ceasefire through threats alone. To reach an agreement, the Kremlin required Donald Trump’s mediation, signaling the failure of Russia’s strategy of diktat and escalation.
The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap is the largest such operation in years. This development represents a clear diplomatic success for Kyiv. The remaining question is the extent to which the Russian Federation will actually adhere to the ceasefire terms.
Ritual Emptiness: Red Square Prepares for a Parade Without Armor
Moscow’s preparations for the May 9, 2026, Victory Day parade reveal a military facade in visible decline. For the first time in decades, the central ritual of the Russian state is expected to feature zero mechanized equipment. This is a stark collapse from 2021, when nearly 200 units of heavy weaponry rolled across Red Square.
The absence of T-14 Armata tanks, T-90Ms, and Yars missile systems is not merely a security precaution against long-range strikes. It marks the total exhaustion of Russia's "parade reserve." Every modern platform is either committed to the front lines or too vulnerable to be showcased. Instead of a demonstration of power, the capital has been transformed into a defensive outpost, ringed by over 130 anti-aircraft positions, including S-400 and Pantsir systems stationed on rooftops.
The hollowed-out nature of the event has triggered a wave of anxiety and criticism within the Russian pro-war community. As strikes reach deeper into regions like Cheboksary and Perm, Z-channels are increasingly vocal about the state's inability to protect the rear, describing the current situation as a "war of attrition" that the Kremlin can no longer hide behind propaganda.
The 2026 parade represents the end of an era. The ritual remains, but the armor is gone, leaving behind a regime that prioritizes security theater over the image of an invincible empire.
Read the full investigation into the military and political degradation of the Russian army on our portal.
https://www.blacksky.info/en/the-anatomy-of-ritual-emptiness-the-exhaustion-of-the-russian-army-during-the-2026-parade/
Moscow’s preparations for the May 9, 2026, Victory Day parade reveal a military facade in visible decline. For the first time in decades, the central ritual of the Russian state is expected to feature zero mechanized equipment. This is a stark collapse from 2021, when nearly 200 units of heavy weaponry rolled across Red Square.
The absence of T-14 Armata tanks, T-90Ms, and Yars missile systems is not merely a security precaution against long-range strikes. It marks the total exhaustion of Russia's "parade reserve." Every modern platform is either committed to the front lines or too vulnerable to be showcased. Instead of a demonstration of power, the capital has been transformed into a defensive outpost, ringed by over 130 anti-aircraft positions, including S-400 and Pantsir systems stationed on rooftops.
The hollowed-out nature of the event has triggered a wave of anxiety and criticism within the Russian pro-war community. As strikes reach deeper into regions like Cheboksary and Perm, Z-channels are increasingly vocal about the state's inability to protect the rear, describing the current situation as a "war of attrition" that the Kremlin can no longer hide behind propaganda.
The 2026 parade represents the end of an era. The ritual remains, but the armor is gone, leaving behind a regime that prioritizes security theater over the image of an invincible empire.
Read the full investigation into the military and political degradation of the Russian army on our portal.
https://www.blacksky.info/en/the-anatomy-of-ritual-emptiness-the-exhaustion-of-the-russian-army-during-the-2026-parade/
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An unprecedented march took place during the Victory Day parade in Chita. For the first time, the procession included the widows of killed invaders, alongside the wives and mothers of Russian soldiers deployed in the invasion of Ukraine.
On the evening of May 9, Vladimir Putin addressed the media regarding the "low-key" nature of the parade and the current frontline situation. He attributed the absence of heavy military equipment from Red Square to security concerns and a desire to maintain focus on the “Special Military Operation.” Notably, he acknowledged that the Kremlin had consulted with China, India, and the U.S. regarding the risk of Ukrainian strikes during the holiday.
Key points of the statement:
Putin justified the lack of heavy armor on both security grounds and the need to prioritize focus on the “special military operation.” He disclosed consultations with Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington concerning potential Ukrainian attacks on May 9 and the projected Russian retaliatory strikes. He characterized the foreign leaders in attendance as demonstrating “a certain courage.”
Regarding Armenia, Putin suggested the possibility of a referendum on EU accession. He framed potential public support as the basis for a “civilized divorce,” while linking the Ukraine conflict’s origins to European integration processes.
He emphasized that for Russia, May 9 is a “holy day,” rather than a “comedic show featuring keyboard instruments.” He declared a readiness to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy—in Moscow or a neutral venue—while insisting that any talks must focus exclusively on signing a final agreement.
Putin claimed the United States is seeking an end to the conflict, though he maintained the issue remains primarily a bilateral matter between Russia and Ukraine. He asserted that the situation is trending toward de-escalation. He also referenced a 2022 conversation with Emmanuel Macron, claiming the French president appealed for a troop withdrawal from the outskirts of Kyiv to ensure Ukraine did not negotiate in Istanbul “with a gun to its head.” Putin identified Gerhard Schröder as the ideal candidate to mediate between the EU and Russia.
The Ministry of Defense reported no provocations on Victory Day.
Following the celebrations, Putin is to receive a detailed military report on the frontline situation.
The “globalist wing of Western elites” is fighting Russia through Ukrainian proxies.
He cited the West’s failure to honor promises regarding NATO eastward expansion as the conflict's root cause.
Europe is escalating tensions while ignoring the resulting strategic costs.
He attributed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory to Western technological support and European equipment assembly.
The creation of a “security zone” is intended to insulate Russia from external threats.
Putin accused Ukraine of sabotaging the prisoner swap, claiming a list of 500 soldiers was submitted to Kyiv on May 5, but the Ukrainian side subsequently “disappeared from the radar.”
Russian military power serves to deter attempts to diminish the USSR’s role in defeating Nazism.
Historical revisionism in Europe was labeled “stupidity leading to misery.”
The West anticipated a Russian collapse within six months of the 2022 invasion.
Putin characterized Finland’s NATO accession as a bid to seize Russian territory following a potential state collapse.
He signaled restraint regarding Helsinki’s actions while expressing hope for a future restoration of relations with the West.
Key points of the statement:
Putin justified the lack of heavy armor on both security grounds and the need to prioritize focus on the “special military operation.” He disclosed consultations with Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington concerning potential Ukrainian attacks on May 9 and the projected Russian retaliatory strikes. He characterized the foreign leaders in attendance as demonstrating “a certain courage.”
Regarding Armenia, Putin suggested the possibility of a referendum on EU accession. He framed potential public support as the basis for a “civilized divorce,” while linking the Ukraine conflict’s origins to European integration processes.
He emphasized that for Russia, May 9 is a “holy day,” rather than a “comedic show featuring keyboard instruments.” He declared a readiness to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy—in Moscow or a neutral venue—while insisting that any talks must focus exclusively on signing a final agreement.
Putin claimed the United States is seeking an end to the conflict, though he maintained the issue remains primarily a bilateral matter between Russia and Ukraine. He asserted that the situation is trending toward de-escalation. He also referenced a 2022 conversation with Emmanuel Macron, claiming the French president appealed for a troop withdrawal from the outskirts of Kyiv to ensure Ukraine did not negotiate in Istanbul “with a gun to its head.” Putin identified Gerhard Schröder as the ideal candidate to mediate between the EU and Russia.
The Ministry of Defense reported no provocations on Victory Day.
Following the celebrations, Putin is to receive a detailed military report on the frontline situation.
The “globalist wing of Western elites” is fighting Russia through Ukrainian proxies.
He cited the West’s failure to honor promises regarding NATO eastward expansion as the conflict's root cause.
Europe is escalating tensions while ignoring the resulting strategic costs.
He attributed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory to Western technological support and European equipment assembly.
The creation of a “security zone” is intended to insulate Russia from external threats.
Putin accused Ukraine of sabotaging the prisoner swap, claiming a list of 500 soldiers was submitted to Kyiv on May 5, but the Ukrainian side subsequently “disappeared from the radar.”
Russian military power serves to deter attempts to diminish the USSR’s role in defeating Nazism.
Historical revisionism in Europe was labeled “stupidity leading to misery.”
The West anticipated a Russian collapse within six months of the 2022 invasion.
Putin characterized Finland’s NATO accession as a bid to seize Russian territory following a potential state collapse.
He signaled restraint regarding Helsinki’s actions while expressing hope for a future restoration of relations with the West.
Russia and the United States have concluded two days of negotiations regarding a Victory Day ceasefire in Ukraine. “Putin is prepared to receive Zelenskyy in Moscow. Let him come,” stated Yuri Ushakov, an adviser to the Russian dictator.
“One hopes, perhaps believes—why not? Trump’s expectations for an extended truce are not supported by the current situation and conflict with the Kyiv regime’s inability to observe the ceasefire,” Ushakov remarked, addressing the U.S. President’s proposal to extend the truce beyond 11 May.
Ushakov also reported that work on the prisoner exchange lists continues. “Relevant services are actively verifying the data. If an agreement is finalized, the exchange between the Russian Federation and Ukraine will commence,” he added.
“One hopes, perhaps believes—why not? Trump’s expectations for an extended truce are not supported by the current situation and conflict with the Kyiv regime’s inability to observe the ceasefire,” Ushakov remarked, addressing the U.S. President’s proposal to extend the truce beyond 11 May.
Ushakov also reported that work on the prisoner exchange lists continues. “Relevant services are actively verifying the data. If an agreement is finalized, the exchange between the Russian Federation and Ukraine will commence,” he added.
U.S. concerns regarding the security of its diplomatic mission in Kyiv were reportedly leveraged to pressure President Zelenskyy into a ceasefire. Putin argued that a massive missile strike would jeopardize the embassy, citing its purported location in the city center. In fact, the U.S. Embassy is situated outside of Kyiv’s central district.
Yuri Ushakov, senior adviser to Vladimir Putin, has articulated Russia’s position on the current ceasefire and the prospects for negotiations. The Kremlin maintains that any resolution remains deadlocked unless the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraw from the Donbas—a demand Moscow insists is non-negotiable.
Key points from the statement:
U.S. Mission: Ushakov announced an upcoming visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. This confirms intensive dialogue with Donald Trump’s inner circle conducted through backchannels outside traditional diplomatic tracks.
Ceasefire Origins: The three-day truce (May 9–11) was secured following hours of telephone consultations with Washington, which acted as the intermediary for Kyiv.
Status of the Truce: The ceasefire is set to expire on May 11. Ushakov emphasized that no decisions regarding an extension have been reached.
Dismissal of Kyiv’s Decree: Putin’s adviser characterized President Zelenskyy’s decree “authorizing” a parade on Red Square as a “frivolous” move, given the complexity of the ongoing negotiations.
Russia is holding firm on its territorial demands while signaling that the involvement of U.S. envoys is central to any attempt at stabilizing the situation.
Key points from the statement:
U.S. Mission: Ushakov announced an upcoming visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. This confirms intensive dialogue with Donald Trump’s inner circle conducted through backchannels outside traditional diplomatic tracks.
Ceasefire Origins: The three-day truce (May 9–11) was secured following hours of telephone consultations with Washington, which acted as the intermediary for Kyiv.
Status of the Truce: The ceasefire is set to expire on May 11. Ushakov emphasized that no decisions regarding an extension have been reached.
Dismissal of Kyiv’s Decree: Putin’s adviser characterized President Zelenskyy’s decree “authorizing” a parade on Red Square as a “frivolous” move, given the complexity of the ongoing negotiations.
Russia is holding firm on its territorial demands while signaling that the involvement of U.S. envoys is central to any attempt at stabilizing the situation.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reviewed the current ceasefire, stating that Ukraine withheld long-range strikes as Russia abstained from large-scale missile attacks. Kyiv intends to maintain this "mirror" strategy moving forward.
Despite the absence of air raids in the rear, the frontline remains volatile. Zelenskyy emphasized that Russian forces are not observing the truce and have made no effort to do so:
Over 150 assault operations recorded in the past 24 hours.
More than 100 artillery barrages.
Nearly 10,000 kamikaze drone strikes targeting Ukrainian positions.
The President warned that if Russia resumes large-scale attacks, Ukraine’s response will be immediate and severe, regardless of the target's location. “Distance is becoming increasingly irrelevant—we have already proven our reach,” the Ukrainian leader added.
Despite the absence of air raids in the rear, the frontline remains volatile. Zelenskyy emphasized that Russian forces are not observing the truce and have made no effort to do so:
Over 150 assault operations recorded in the past 24 hours.
More than 100 artillery barrages.
Nearly 10,000 kamikaze drone strikes targeting Ukrainian positions.
The President warned that if Russia resumes large-scale attacks, Ukraine’s response will be immediate and severe, regardless of the target's location. “Distance is becoming increasingly irrelevant—we have already proven our reach,” the Ukrainian leader added.
For the first time in nearly three years, the strategic initiative appears to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor. Data from The Economist and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that over the past 30 days, Russia has lost 113 km² of territory. The Kremlin’s spring offensive has effectively failed, with the aggressor’s net territorial balance turning negative for the first time since August 2024.
Key drivers of this shift:
A new generation of Ukrainian UAVs—utilizing AI and fiber-optic guidance—is silent and effectively immune to Russian electronic warfare. FPV drones now account for up to 80% of Russian losses.
Russian logistics have been forced into convoys of no more than two vehicles. On the "last mile," casualty rates among supply operators have reached 90%.
Monthly Russian casualties average 35,000 soldiers. Total losses since the start of the invasion are nearing 1.4 million killed or seriously wounded.
Sir Lawrence Freedman [Corrected from Friedman] views the current situation as a potential point of no return, likely to lead to localized breakthroughs in Russian defenses. Seth Jones [Corrected from Set] of CSIS emphasizes that deep-strike operations—which in March saw Ukraine surpass Russia in long-range drone volume for the first time—are undermining both oil export potential and Russian domestic morale.
“It is difficult to foresee an improvement in the situation for Russia. The picture is exceptionally bleak,” the analysts conclude.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/05/10/russia-is-stumbling-on-the-battlefield
Key drivers of this shift:
A new generation of Ukrainian UAVs—utilizing AI and fiber-optic guidance—is silent and effectively immune to Russian electronic warfare. FPV drones now account for up to 80% of Russian losses.
Russian logistics have been forced into convoys of no more than two vehicles. On the "last mile," casualty rates among supply operators have reached 90%.
Monthly Russian casualties average 35,000 soldiers. Total losses since the start of the invasion are nearing 1.4 million killed or seriously wounded.
Sir Lawrence Freedman [Corrected from Friedman] views the current situation as a potential point of no return, likely to lead to localized breakthroughs in Russian defenses. Seth Jones [Corrected from Set] of CSIS emphasizes that deep-strike operations—which in March saw Ukraine surpass Russia in long-range drone volume for the first time—are undermining both oil export potential and Russian domestic morale.
“It is difficult to foresee an improvement in the situation for Russia. The picture is exceptionally bleak,” the analysts conclude.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/05/10/russia-is-stumbling-on-the-battlefield
The Economist
Russia is stumbling on the battlefield
As casualties soar in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin looks ever more beleaguered at home
Der Spiegel reports on a contentious proposal emerging from Berlin: President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is reportedly endorsing Gerhard Schröder as the EU’s lead negotiator for talks with Vladimir Putin. The initiative, currently under discussion within the German governing coalition, has sparked a fierce international backlash.
Key aspects of the proposal:
▪️ According to the weekly’s sources, Putin is personally demanding Schröder’s presence at the negotiating table.
▪️ The German President would provide the necessary diplomatic weight and experience from his tenure in the Trilateral Contact Group, serving as a substantive counterweight to the controversial former chancellor.
▪️ EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has criticized the move, noting that Schröder’s deep ties to Moscow would effectively place him “on both sides of the table.”
▪️ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Kyiv categorically rejects the candidacy, emphasizing the requirement for mediators who command absolute trust.
Key aspects of the proposal:
▪️ According to the weekly’s sources, Putin is personally demanding Schröder’s presence at the negotiating table.
▪️ The German President would provide the necessary diplomatic weight and experience from his tenure in the Trilateral Contact Group, serving as a substantive counterweight to the controversial former chancellor.
▪️ EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has criticized the move, noting that Schröder’s deep ties to Moscow would effectively place him “on both sides of the table.”
▪️ Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Kyiv categorically rejects the candidacy, emphasizing the requirement for mediators who command absolute trust.