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πŸ’ NHL

Vegas Golden Knights - Vancouver Canucks
Pick - Over 6.5 (OT incl.)
Odds - 1.94 (-106)
Stake - 2.5% /u

This is a spot where Vegas needs to respond and push hard after some chaotic performances. A coaching change should eventually stabilize things, but for now it can still lead to open hockey. The Canucks are out of the race, so they can play freely. I see good value on goals here.

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πŸ’ DEL

Bremerhaven - Adler Mannheim
Pick - Bremerhaven ML
Odds - 2.36 (+136)
Stake - 1.5% /u

I don’t think this series ends 0-4. Adler are the better team and should advance, but Bremerhaven deserve at least one win here. The odds on the home side should be lower, so I see great value.

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πŸ€ NBA

Rockets - Knicks
Pick: Jabari Smith Jr. over 14.5 points
Odds: 1.90
Stake: 2.5 units

The Rockets are facing the Knicks, a team against which Smith already scored 21 points about a month ago. New York limits scoring in the paint, which should push more opportunities to the perimeter - a good setup for Smith. When factoring in all current Rockets starters, his expected minutes, and matchups against teams that allow a high volume of threes and catch-and-shoot looks, he has gone over this line in 9 of 12 games, averaging 18.2 points. In one of the unders, he still scored 12 points despite shooting just 1 of 6 from three.

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⚾️ MLB

Diamondbacks - Tigers
Pick: Tigers ML
Odds: 1.99
Stake: 2.5 units

The Tigers are in a strong position to win because they have the edge on the mound and a favorable matchup for their offense. Arizona’s starter struggled last season, allowing a lot of runs and not generating many strikeouts, which can create scoring chances. On top of that, the Diamondbacks have one of the weaker bullpens, so Detroit should have opportunities to produce runs throughout the game.

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πŸ’ NHL

Washington Capitals - Philadelphia Flyers
Pick - Philadelphia Flyers ML
Odds - 2.14 (+114)
Stake - 2% /u

The Capitals are coming off a three-game road trip, while the Flyers are in very solid form right now. In my opinion, Philly should be favorites here, so getting plus money is definitely value.

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⚾️ MLB

Reds - Pirates
Pick: Andrew Abbott under 5.5 strikeouts
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 3 units

In his career, Abbott has gone under this line in nearly 62% of his starts. He also opened this season with just 4 strikeouts against the Red Sox, and the Pirates profile as a mid-tier team in terms of strikeout rate. When facing teams ranked between 12th and 20th in strikeout percentage, Abbott has stayed under in 13 of 18 games, averaging 4.61 strikeouts. He also recorded 5 strikeouts against the Pirates last season, a lineup that was performing even worse than it is now.

On top of that, the ballpark is more hitter-friendly, which can further reduce strikeout potential and support the under.

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πŸ€ NBA

Rockets - Bucks
Pick: Kevin Durant under 24.5 points
Odds: 1.90
Stake: 2.5 units

I just don’t see Durant playing heavy minutes tonight. The spread is already at 17 points, and there’s a strong chance Milwaukee rests players like Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, and Kyle Kuzma as they fall out of playoff contention. If that happens, Houston could take control early and turn this into a blowout. In games where his team wins by at least 15 points against bottom-10 defenses, Durant has gone under in 8 of 9 games, averaging just 20.3 points.

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πŸ’ NHL

San Jose Sharks - Anaheim Ducks
Pick - Over 6.5 (OT incl.)
Odds - 1.81 (-123)
Stake - 3% /u

Another good spot for goals in a Ducks game. Their defense hasn’t been great lately, so the Sharks’ offense should be able to take advantage. San Jose’s young talents can generate scoring chances, and I expect a productive game here. Good value on the over.

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