ArbLense Market Desk - 12h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 3 08:00-May 3 20:00 PT

Desk note: No qualifying dislocations or whale prints made the public brief.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

ArbLense Market Desk - 12h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 3 08:00-May 3 20:00 PT

Best dislocations
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - $2,546.25 peak net, 0.60% ROI at May 3 18:51 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.60c/contract
2. Elise Stefanik - $2,430.34 peak net, 0.70% ROI at May 3 08:28 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.70c/contract
3. Greg Abbott - $1,426.53 peak net, 0.40% ROI at May 3 15:10 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.40c/contract

Market movement
1. Cleveland Cavaliers on Polymarket: +1.25c to 4.75c
2. Oklahoma City Thunder on Polymarket: -1.00c to 56.50c
3. New York Knicks on Polymarket: -0.40c to 8.25c

Desk note: The cleanest signal came from cross-venue pricing dislocations.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

ArbLense Market Desk - 12h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 3 22:00-May 4 10:00 PT

Best dislocations
1. Elise Stefanik - $2,426.84 peak net, 0.70% ROI at May 4 02:46 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.70c/contract
2. John Thune - $1,461.73 peak net, 0.50% ROI at May 4 05:25 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.50c/contract
3. Greg Abbott - $1,426.53 peak net, 0.40% ROI at May 3 22:07 PT
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket | Edge: 0.40c/contract

Market movement
1. Above $3,500.00 on Polymarket: +33.25c to 39.50c
2. Above $119,999.99 on Polymarket: +14.35c to 18.50c
3. Above $4,000.00 on Polymarket: +13.00c to 26.50c

Desk note: The cleanest signal came from cross-venue pricing dislocations.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

Scanner: https://arblense.com/arbs

ArbLense Market Desk - 24h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 3 20:00-May 4 20:00 PT

Best dislocations
1. Minnesota
Peak net / contract: +0.5c
Total profit: $4,287 at May 4 19:55 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=TRACKED%3A%3AKXNBA-26-MIN&open=1
2. Elise Stefanik
Peak net / contract: +0.7c
Total profit: $2,427 at May 4 02:46 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Apolitics-republican-presidential-nominee-2028%3A%3Aelise-stefanik&open=1
3. John Thune
Peak net / contract: +0.5c
Total profit: $1,462 at May 4 15:41 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Apolitics-republican-presidential-nominee-2028%3A%3Ajohn-thune&open=1

Desk note: The cleanest signal came from cross-venue pricing dislocations.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

Arb opportunity: Oklahoma City
Board: Will the Oklahoma City win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
Route: Buy YES on Kalshi / Buy NO on Polymarket
Current net: $2436.34
Peak net (tracked 6m): $2436.34 at 2026-05-05 03:56
ROI: 2.04%
Capital: $119380.63
Size: 121817
Per contract: gross 2.00c / fees 0.00c / net 2.00c

Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=TRACKED%3A%3AKXNBA-26-OKC&open=1

ArbLense Market Desk - 24h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 4 20:00-May 5 20:00 PT

Best dislocations
1. Oklahoma City
Peak net / contract: +3.0c
Total profit: $10,508 at May 4 22:04 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=TRACKED%3A%3AKXNBA-26-OKC&open=1
2. Minnesota
Peak net / contract: +1.9c
Total profit: $5,056 at May 4 22:29 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=TRACKED%3A%3AKXNBA-26-MIN&open=1
3. Detroit
Peak net / contract: +1.1c
Total profit: $5,012 at May 5 18:52 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Asports-2026-nba-champion%3A%3Adetroit-pistons&open=1

Desk note: The cleanest signal came from cross-venue pricing dislocations.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

Arb opportunity: Los Angeles L
Board: Will the Los Angeles L win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
Route: Buy YES on Polymarket / Buy NO on Kalshi
Current net: $2469.11
Peak net (tracked 1350m): $2469.11 at 2026-05-06 03:26
ROI: 1.52%
Capital: $162138.12
Size: 164607
Per contract: gross 1.50c / fees 0.00c / net 1.50c

Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Asports-2026-nba-champion%3A%3Alos-angeles-lakers&open=1

Big Polymarket print: Hike 0bps
Board: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Side: SELL
Notional: $54,907
Price: 95.0c
Time: May 6 03:18 PT

Context: large public tape print on Polymarket.

Verify live depth before routing; prints are not execution advice.

Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Afinance-fed-decision-june-2026%3A%3Afed-maintains-rate&open=1

ArbLense Market Desk - 24h Cross-Venue Brief
Window: May 5 20:00-May 6 20:00 PT

Best dislocations
1. Detroit
Peak net / contract: +1.4c
Total profit: $6,378 at May 5 20:21 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Asports-2026-nba-champion%3A%3Adetroit-pistons&open=1
2. Los Angeles L
Peak net / contract: +1.5c
Total profit: $2,469 at May 5 20:07 PT
Route: Polymarket YES / Kalshi NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Asports-2026-nba-champion%3A%3Alos-angeles-lakers&open=1
3. John Thune
Peak net / contract: +0.5c
Total profit: $1,462 at May 6 01:15 PT
Route: Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO
Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=ODDPOOL%3A%3Apolitics-republican-presidential-nominee-2028%3A%3Ajohn-thune&open=1

Desk note: The cleanest signal came from cross-venue pricing dislocations.
Verify live depth before routing; spreads can move quickly.

Arb opportunity: Minnesota
Board: Will the Minnesota win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?
Route: Buy YES on Polymarket / Buy NO on Kalshi
Current net: $1069.82
Peak net (tracked 472m): $1123.31 at 2026-05-07 03:59
ROI: 2.04%
Capital: $52421.29
Size: 53491
Per contract: gross 2.00c / fees 0.00c / net 2.00c

Open: https://arblense.com/arbs?market_id=TRACKED%3A%3AKXNBA-26-MIN&open=1