Ukrainian Su/24/MiG-29s are airborne over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. There is a threat of Storm Shadow Cruise Missile launches for Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai.

Another angle of the Houthi ballistic missile strike in the vicinity of Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv.

They flew away from the potential launch lines. The threat has been lifted.

The crater at the impact site

Ukrainian Su-24/MiG-29s are airborne again, flying towards the launch lines. There is a threat of Storm Shadow Cruise missile launches again.

Palestinian sources report that 19 people were killed and 15 others wounded after an Israeli airstrike targeted the top three floors of a residential building sheltering displaced families in northwestern Gaza City, Northern Gaza.

Footage showing six Russian Geran-2 drone strikes on the villages of Andriivka and Vesela Hora (Donetsk Oblast) and the city of Shostka (Sumy Oblast).

They reportedly targeted workshops for the production of ammunition and explosives, a forward deployment point of the 117th Heavy Mechanised Brigade and a warehouse for the 117th brigade.

Here's the video of the Iskander-M strike I reported on yesterday. It targeted two Ukrainian HIMARS GMLRS near the village of Chereshen'ky, Kherson Oblast.

A Russian reconnaissance drone monitored the systems firing rockets towards Russian-controlled Kherson Oblast, and watched as they were moved to a new firing position. They then sent the coordinates of this second position to Russian OTRK crews who launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile from the vicinity of Hvardiivske, Crimea, targeting the HIMARS.

The explosion was so strong that it could be heard from Mykolaiv City, 40km away.

Sirens are sounding in the settlement of Ariel, West Bank due to the threat of militant infiltrations.

False alarm

(Part one)

Further thoughts regarding the Kostyantynivka direction and where I think it is going:

First off, it is important to remember that just because Russia is making important progress in the direction of Kostyantynivka, it doesn't necessarily mean that they will keep pushing until they level out that whole big salient.

Russia's tactic is pushing in one area, pulling Ukrainian forces away from another part of the frontline to the section where they are pushing, and then push in either that area where the Ukrainian forces were brought from, or in another critical or weak area. It's a game of whack-a-mole for Ukraine as they attempt to plug gaps in their defence, while Russia pushes where they choose.

Does this mean Russia won't make an exception for this salient? No, of course not. In fact, it's entirely plausible that Russia will choose to employ this stretching and probing tactic, but instead of it being theatre-wide, it focuses on a lower level only inside the salient, pushing and stretching the frontline at various smaller points, with the general goal of capturing key positions, tactical heights and settlements, and the overall goal being collapsing the salient to the northwest in the direction of Kostyantynivka.

This will obviously take some time as Ukraine realises the critical situation of their units defending the area, but as long as Russia applies enough pressure in the right points and keeps up their strikes on the rear, a Ukrainian collapse on the tactical level is inevitable (think of something like the collapse of the salient which formed around Krasnohorivka, Hirnyk and Ukrainsk in mid-late 2024 as an example of what this future collapse which I am predicting could be vaguely reminiscent of).

But we must not assume that just because they made quick gains here, that it will be forever. The longevity of the attacks and the success that Russia enjoys will depend on a number of factors, including Ukrainian redeployments, morale, mobilisation efforts, coordination, and much, much more. Russia will also have to ensure that they are attacking in a coordinated and overall intelligent manner, (e.g. not conducting massive and suicidal mechanised assaults across huge fields), but rather employing tactics which have worked for them in the past, such as what I have previously talked about with the situation around the village of Troitske (Novopavlivka direction) where Russian forces are encountering fierce resistance but are still managing to attack with minimal casualties.

Of course, there is also the effect that progress (or even territorial losses) on other fronts will ultimately have on the overall success and efficiency of this offensive. Chasiv Yar is the most obvious, with Russian forces halting most of the assault operations in the city itself due to heavy Ukrainian drone usage, no significant Ukrainian shortages of manpower and extremely fortified positions, trenches, and strongpoints. Russian forces have instead opted for attacks on the heavily fortified village of Stupochky in order to secure the southern flank and pressure the remaining tactical heights south of Chasiv Yar. Due to Chasiv Yar's strategic placement on the top of the tactical heights, it is vital to a Russian assault on Kostyantynivka and eventually Druzhkivka. The sector also overlooks its own mini-salient north of Toretsk, basically a salient within a salient. This will need to be eliminated, but once again, Ukraine has very dug-in positions, this time along the Siverksy Donets Canal, which will require extensive clearing operations and aerial bombardment to dislodge the units stationed there which have had years to prepare. This explains Russia's attacks on the nearby villages of Dyliivka and Druzhba.

The Pokrovsk direction on the other-hand will have less of an effect due to the positioning of it and how the Russian's have postured themselves in the area of the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka highway.

(Part two)

Overall, it is important not to underestimate or overestimate the Russian or Ukrainian militaries. Both are very capable fighting forces. While Russia has the upper hand in almost every part of this war, this does not mean that Ukraine won't fight fiercely for parts of their country such as Kostyantynivka. Just because it's clear how this offensive will end up, it is not clear how it will be conducted, the effect it will have on the strategic situation, and what losses either side will endure.

Let's be realistic. Russia will collapse this salient, but it won't be a walk in the park. Ukraine understands how important it is to hold this area and will do whatever they can to hold back and prolong an eventual Russian offensive on Kostyantynivka. They don't want a repeat of Bakhmut where they fell back towards the city quickly, not giving enough time for adequate fortifications to be constructed, for the civilian population to be evacuated, and for other preparatory measures to be taken.