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"Alien" technical and fundamental analysis to dominate the markets.

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πŸ“’ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial.
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Why is this trade on GU invalid even though it has taken two TPs so far?

The reason is that the price is above the blue median. Therefore, it should not be taken into consideration.

Even though it is a Buy and Sell indicator that filters out false signals as much as possible, it is always important to contextualize the market and follow its indications.
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πŸ“Š MARKET REVIEW – GEOPOLITICAL BREAKTHROUGH

The diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reshapes the markets: stocks rally as oil plummets!

πŸš€ Stocks Soar:
Milan (FTSE MIB): Closes up +0.72% (at 51,860 points). Stellantis (+6.06%) and Ferrari (+4.19%) surge, the latter boosted by a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Eni tanks (-4.95%), dragged down by crude oil.
Europe & Asia: Frankfurt gains over 1.3%. In Asia, the Nikkei skyrockets (+4.99%). Wall Street futures point to a strong green opening.

πŸ›’ Commodities:
Oil Collapses: Crude drops a massive -5.4%, sliding down toward $80 a barrel.
Gold Records: Defying the trend, gold jumps +2.6%, trading above $4,350.

πŸͺ™ Crypto:
Risk-on sentiment is back: Bitcoin (+1.8%) holds steady above $65,700. Stronger moves for XRP (+4%) and Ethereum (+3%).

πŸ“° In short: Fox launches a massive €19.1 billion bid for Roku. US regulators keep the spotlight on OpenAI over pre-IPO security concerns.

Stay tuned for new updates!
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πŸ“Š MARKET REVIEW TIMELINE – UPDATE 19/06/2026

A two-speed day on the markets, characterized by major technical expirations ("Triple Witching") and a geopolitical focus on the delayed US-Iran talks.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Wall Street Closed: US financial markets (NYSE, Nasdaq, and bonds) remained fully closed today in observance of the Juneteenth federal holiday. Global trading volumes were lower in the afternoon as a result.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί European Stocks Positive: Without New York's guidance, Europe consolidated its weekly gains.
Milan (FTSE MIB): Closes up +0.56%, nearing the 53,000 mark.

Top & Flop in Piazza Affari: Oil stocks rebound strongly with Saipem (+2.56%) and Eni (+2.39%). Leonardo (+1.58%) also performs well. A tough day for luxury, with Brunello Cucinelli dropping -3.69%.

Frankfurt (DAX): Closes up +0.4% (above 25,100 points).

πŸ›’ Commodities & Forex:
Oil Steady: Following recent volatility, Brent crude stabilizes just under $80 a barrel ($79.60) due to postponed US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Switzerland.
Gold & Euro: Gold holds strong at $4,170 per ounce. The EUR/USD pair remains stable around 1.146.

πŸͺ™ Crypto:
Bitcoin moves into consolidation, trading around the $63,000 level.

Have a great weekend! Global trading will resume regularly on Monday, June 22.
πŸ“Š MARKET UPDATE β€” June 29, 2026

🏦 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL

The Fed maintains a hawkish tone under new Chairman Warsh: markets are currently pricing in three rate hikes in 2026, with a 62% probability for September. The May PCE came in line with expectations (4.1%), leading investors to slightly reduce their aggressive rate hike bets.

πŸ’΅ DXY

The Dollar Index is trading around 101.30, down slightly for the second consecutive session after the PCE data, but remains positive on a weekly basis thanks to the Fed's dovish tone. The 100–101 zone is a key support to monitor.

🟑 XAUUSD

Gold is trading at ~$4,067, down 9% in the last month but still up 23% year-over-year. Technical analysis signals bearish pressure with the price below a descending trendline and recovery attempts rebuffed. The $3,920 area is critical support; resistance is at $4,320–4,380.

πŸ“ˆ INDICES

Wall Street closed mixed: Dow Jones +0.35%, S&P 500 -0.10%, Nasdaq -0.43%. European stocks were pressured by tech. Milan was the worst performer of the week (-3%), partly due to the collapse of the defense sector.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS

The conflict in the Middle East escalated with Iran striking ships in the Gulf and bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, followed by US retaliation. However, both sides agreed to suspend attacks ahead of peace negotiations in Doha this week.

πŸ“Œ WEEKLY FOCUS

US employment data (NFP), ISM Manufacturing PMI, and developments in the Iran-US talks in Doha. High volatility expected.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
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πŸ“Š MARKET UPDATE β€” July 1, 2026

🏦 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL

A busy day of data. The June ADP came out at +98,000, below expectations of 118,000 β€” a sign of moderation in the labor market. Tomorrow is the key day with the June NFP (consensus at around 115,000, unemployment expected to remain stable at 4.3%). The June ISM Manufacturing Index disappointed slightly at 53.3 vs. the estimated 54.0. The Fed remains hawkish: markets are pricing in three more hikes in 2026, with the earliest possible in September. Investinglive + 2

πŸ’΅ DXY

The DXY is trading around 101.2, on track for a second consecutive month of gains, supported by expectations of a Fed hike. The weak ADP has given the euro some respite, but the underlying trend remains favorable to the dollar. Key resistance is at 101.6 (a 15-month high).

🟑 XAUUSD

Gold is trading around $4,030, at an eight-month low, with Q2 set to close with its worst quarter in decades (-11%). Pressure is coming from high Treasury yields and the deterioration of the dollar debasement trade. The $3,950–$3,970 zone is the critical support to defend; below that, the path to $3,820 opens up.

πŸ“ˆ INDICES

S&P 500 is trading at ~7,354, Nasdaq at ~25,297, Dow at ~51,876. Wall Street is still trading at elevated levels despite macroeconomic pressure. Europe is more cautious: DAX around 24,683, CAC40 around 8,295.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS

US-Iran negotiations continue with hopes of an agreement in Doha, but Iran has denied direct talks. Trump is pushing for minimum tariffs of 15–20% on EU goods, a factor that weighed on EUR/USD this morning.

πŸ“Œ FOCUS TOMORROW

June NFP (2:30 PM CET) β€” key data for Fed expectations. High volatility expected on the dollar, gold, and indices.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
πŸ“Š MARKET UPDATE β€” July 2, 2026

🏦 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL


A day to mark in red on the calendar. The June NFP came out weaker than expected, causing the dollar to retrace and giving markets a breather. The DXY rose to 101.6, a 15-month high, after the ADP showed +98,000 jobsβ€”below expectations of 118,000β€”but still with a labor market that remains strong. Fed Chair Warsh reiterated the focus on inflation, ruling out explicit forward guidance.

πŸ’΅ DXY

The dollar index returned to around 101.3, supported by rising Treasury yields and expectations of at least one Fed hike by the end of the year. Post-NFP disappointment, the DXY fell, with EUR/USD recovering above 1.1450, hitting a new multi-day high. GBP/USD rebounded towards 1.3340. JPY remains under pressure: USD/JPY extended to its highest level since 1986.

🟑 XAUUSD

Gold stabilized around $4,050 in the Asian session, awaiting the NFP for direction. After the weak data, the metal surpassed $4,100 with good upside momentum, supported by the dollar's retracement. The $3,950–$3,970 zone confirmed as solid support; key resistance remains at $4,120–$4,140. Markets closed Friday (July 4) for Independence Day: session congested, liquidity reduced.

πŸ“ˆ INDICES

USD/JPY is at its highest level since 1986, with markets on edge over possible intervention by the Japanese authorities. Wall Street rises post-NFP: the soft data reduces the risk of aggressive increases. Europe follows suit. The S&P 500 is in the 7,350+ area, the DAX above 24,700.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS

Iran-US negotiations are at a standstill in the Gulf, with residual tensions limiting risk-on despite Trump's positive signals about a possible agreement. Trump is pushing for 15–20% tariffs on EU goods, a factor that continues to weigh on the euro and risk-off flows.

πŸ“Œ FOCUS

Shortened session today due to the US pre-holiday. US markets are closed on Friday, July 4th. Next catalyst: Fed meeting on July 29th.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
πŸ“Š WEEKLY RECAP β€” Week of June 30 / July 4, 2026

🏦 MACRO β€” HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

The undisputed star of the show was the June NFP: only +57,000 jobs were created versus the 110,000 expected, with downward revisions in previous months bringing the combined April-May figure to -74,000 compared to estimates. The market reduced the probability of a Fed hike in September to 50%, from 66% pre-estimate. A significant change in the scenario in just a few minutes.

πŸ’΅ DXY

The week began with the dollar on the rise: the DXY hit a 15-month high of 101.6, supported by hawkish expectations and a below-expected but resilient ADP. After the NFP, a sharp reversal occurred: the dollar is headed for its worst weekly decline since April. EUR/USD recovered above 1.1450. USD/JPY remains broad in the 162 area, its highest level since the 1980s.

🟑 XAUUSD

Gold closed the week at around $4,170, up 2% on the week, breaking four consecutive weeks of decline. The metal had started out struggling, compressed below the major moving averages, but then the NFP opened the door to a rebound. Technically, it broke the 100-period SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci line of the April-June decline, with the RSI near 68. Key resistance now stands at the 38.2% Fibonacci line.

πŸ“ˆ INDICES

S&P 500 up 1.8% weekly, Nasdaq up 2.1%, Dow up 2%. However, the week was split in two: strong pressure on tech throughout the first half (AI valuations in question, Meta and chips under sell-off), then the weak NFP put fuel back into the engine. The Dow hit a new all-time high on Thursday. US markets closed on Friday for Independence Day.

🌍 GEOPOLITICS

Timid but concrete progress was made in the US-Iran negotiations in Doha. Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal, easing pressure on oil prices and easing inflation fears. WTI crude oil fell for the fourth consecutive week, closing around $68. US-EU tariffs remain on the table, with Trump threatening 100% tariffs on countries with digital services taxes.

πŸ“Œ NEXT WEEK

Focus on: FOMC Minutes (July 8), US June CPI (July 14), and the July 29 Fed meeting. With the disappointing NFP, the market will now have to decide whether this is a structural signal or a technical rebound in the labor market.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Alien_Pips pinned Β«πŸ“Š WEEKLY RECAP β€” Week of June 30 / July 4, 2026 🏦 MACRO β€” HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK The undisputed star of the show was the June NFP: only +57,000 jobs were created versus the 110,000 expected, with downward revisions in previous months bringing the combined…»
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