Algocrat AI
1.77K subscribers
117 photos
84 links
Where long-term proven strategies, meet next-gen crypto trading algorithms:

www.algocrat.ai
Download Telegram
🚀 Introducing Algocrat AI: The Future of Crypto Algo-Trading

Hi
there,

We are thrilled to finally introduce Algocrat AI, a game-changing crypto trading solution designed with you in mind.

Here's what you need to know, for now:

📈 Extraordinary Returns: Experience the power of a top-performing crypto trading system, which has averaged a 100-180% return per year since 2019, trading BTC and ETH pairs while protecting the capital with traditional Take-Profit and Stop-Loss parameters.


👔 Institutional-Grade: Trusted with over $5 million in assets under management, our proprietary trading system has been the secret sauce for consistently and exponentially growing our own accounts, those of hedge funds, and a group of selected private investors – and now, it's your turn.


⚙️ Customized for Your Comfort: Whether you're inclined towards low, medium, or high-risk strategies, our platform seamlessly adapts. Plus, it's compatible with both MetaTrader brokers and top-tier crypto exchanges, ensuring a personalized trading experience that aligns with your specific desires and requirements.

and much more!

In the coming weeks, we'll share more exciting features and details..

Soon, you’ll have the opportunity to access this elite crypto trading solution that's been exclusive to a privileged inner circle until now.

Stay tuned!

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
📈 Witness Algocrat's World-Class Results [MyFxBook]

Hey there,

In our last update, we mentioned Algocrat AI's impressive track record of 100-180% average annual returns over 5 years.

But, as you know, in the world of trading and finance, seeing is believing.

As the famous saying goes: “trust, but verify”.

That's why we're excited to present verified track records from MyFxBook, offering you a concrete, 3rd party proof of our trading system’s performance over the years:

🔗 Click here to access our MyFxBook track record

🔥Here's the exciting part for you:

These results come from a groundbreaking trading system composed of 9 diverse systems and algorithms, incorporating AI and other advanced technologies, all weighing into each trade decision.

By joining Algocrat AI, you’ll not just copy trades from a proven trading system that has been performing exceptionally well since 2020,

You’ll also position yourself ahead of time, at the forefront of trading innovation.

Are you ready?

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
💸 Bitcoin vs Algocrat AI - Breaking Down the Numbers

Hello!

As you may be aware, Bitcoin has been one of the fastest-growing investments for the last 18 months to 2 years, reaching a new all-time high just a few days ago. This might lead you to question why you should consider investing in Algocrat AI instead of Bitcoin.

To shed some light on this, let's compare their growth during this period:

Imagine you invested in Bitcoin at its lowest possible point based on Binance spot data, November 2022, which was 15,476. Holding onto it until now would have resulted in a growth of 301.4%

However, If you had chosen to invest in Algocrat AI around the same time, with a single investment in November 2022 and no further action, our track records show your account would have grown 395.8%, outperforming the best possible investment in Bitcoin.

Is Algocrat AI a risk-free investment? Of course not.

Like Bitcoin, it involves risks and has its ups and downs, positive and negative months, peaks, and troughs.

Is it a long-term profitable investment? Historical data shows consistent growth over more than five years, proving its ability to perform across different market conditions, including bear, sideways, and bull markets.

Why is this important for you? Because it removes the (practically impossible) challenge of timing the market.

While finding good entry and exit points for Bitcoin investments can provide significant profits, buying Bitcoin at a peak could result in prolonged periods of waiting and enduring painful drawdowns. For example, if you invested in Bitcoin in November 2021 at 69,000, you'd be at around a -10% loss today, compared to Algocrat AI's staggering 911% growth.

Despite Bitcoin being one of fastest growing investments for the last years, Algocrat AI has proved to be not only more profitable but also reliable across various market conditions and not only on bull runs, and that's why you may find it to be a better option.

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🛡 Control your funds & pay only if you profit

Hello there,

Along these weeks, we've been gradually revealing Algocrat AI, highlighting its potential to revolutionize your crypto trading experience.

Yet, the specifics of accessing and using it have been under wraps - until now.

It's time to fully disclose what sets it apart and how you can harness its capabilities for serious crypto trading.

Here’s what makes Algocrat AI your perfect partner:

🪄 Tailored Copytrading: Enjoy effortless trading by connecting your account, be it MetaTrader 4/5 or Binance Futures, to our master account and replicate our trades in real time, with your desired risk profile.


🛡 Your Funds, Your Terms: Feel secure as your funds always remain in your own MetaTrader or Binance account. Keep total control at all times.


💎 Fair and Transparent Pricing: Our philosophy is simple - you only pay when you make profits. With no setup costs or management fees, our interests are perfectly aligned with yours.

How are our system and model unique?

Algocrat AI was originally designed and developed by expert crypto traders for their personal use.

Through the years, our track record got noticed, and we’ve allowed selected investors, including hedge funds, to become clients.

You’ll be able to access the same systems we’ve been using to trade our own and our client’s accounts for years with unparalleled success.

Algocrat AI is not just another massive copytrading platform, but a private, battle-tested system which main goal is to profit from the crypto markets.

We’re so confident in it that we’ll allow you to join without any costs, keep the funds in your control at all times, and pay us a profit-share fee only when you make money.

Sounds good?

Then stay tuned for our next update, detailing the specifics of joining this elite trading circle.

Best wishes,
The Algocrat AI Team
Scalability, Availability & Minimum Requirements

Hi there,

As we approach the launch of Algocrat AI, it's essential to address the scalability aspects of our proprietary trading system.

In the world of trading, even when you find a strategy that is able to maintain an edge over the market consistently for several years, not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

There are limits.

The very nature of crypto market liquidity sets a cap on the capital volume we can effectively manage while keeping performing at the level we’ve been at so far.

For the first quarter from the moment of release, we're limiting the total assets under management at $20 million, of which over $5 million is already committed.

Our aim is continuous improvement, enhancing the strategy to expand scalability each quarter. However, there's a practical limit to how much we can scale, ensuring the quality and effectiveness of trades.

There's no limit per client, so it's not about the number of connected accounts but the speed at which the capital availability is taken.

That said - there are minimum requirements per client:

At Algocrat AI, we believe in partnering with serious investors who are committed to achieving their financial goals, while understanding profitable trading is a long-term game, where success is not guaranteed every month or quarter.

To ensure that our clients are fully invested, both figuratively and literally, we have set a minimum investment requirement of $25.000 per account.

By setting a minimum investment threshold, we ensure that our services and comprehensive infrastructure, including our high-end investor portal are efficiently utilized for your benefit.

If you want to make sure you don’t miss out, stay tuned for the next update.

In a few days, we will introduce a priority list.

By signing up, you'll get early access once we launch, securing your spot in this exclusive trading opportunity.

Best wishes,
The Algocrat AI Team.
✍🏻 Priority List Now Open [Secure Your Spot]

Hey,

Being just a few days away from Algocrat's AI official launch, we're thrilled to announce the opening of our priority list, as promised in our last update.

As you know by now, there’s a limit to the amount of capital we can manage with our proprietary trading system, so this is your chance to ensure access.

Simply visit our website, sign up with your name and email, and gain a privileged position once we launch.

By securing your spot, you're taking a crucial step towards a game-changing crypto trading experience.

🔗 Click here to access the priority list now

Best wishes,
The Algocrat AI Team.
📚Investors Deck [Access Now]

Hello,

The countdown to the Algocrat AI launch has begun, and your journey towards transforming how you engage with crypto trading is about to take a giant leap forward.

In anticipation of this momentous occasion, we're offering a detailed, insider's view into the revolutionary world of Algocrat AI with our meticulously prepared Investors Deck.

This PDF document is a 22-page deep dive detailing the nuances of Algocrat AI's ecosystem and of opportunities it presents.

From the bedrock of our pioneering private CopyTrading solution to our commitment to fairness and transparency, the Investors Deck lays bare the foundations of our proprietary trading system and its verified success.

More than just facts, this deck is about showing you the future of crypto trading and how it can align with your financial aspirations. It highlights our profit-share commission model, ensuring that we only succeed when you do, and gives you a glimpse into our exclusive investor portal where every transaction is transparent.

Dive into the pages of our Investors Deck to uncover:

- The essence of Algocrat AI and its transformative potential for your trading journey.
- An overview of the unparalleled technology that could redefine your approach to crypto investment.
- Insight into how our platform is designed with your success and security in mind.

🔗 Click here to access the Investors Deck

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
Algocrat AI Now Available [Official Launch]

Hey,

The moment you've been eagerly awaiting is finally here.. Algocrat AI is officially launched.

We understand the anticipation and excitement that comes with this announcement, and we're thrilled to inform you that applications to become a part of Algocrat AI are now open.

Additionally, our official website and YouTube channel are now live, offering you detailed insights about Algocrat AI as well as step-by-step walkthroughs.

Here's how to apply:

1. Fill out a simple form on our website in 5 minutes or less
2. Give our team 24-48 business hours to process your application and get back to you

🔗 Click here to apply now

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team

P.S. - Availability is limited. We're committed to prioritizing quality over quantity, so if you want to join the future of crypto algo-trading, do not let this opportunity pass.
🕐 High Volume Of Applications

Hello,

Since Algocrat AI's official launch on April 1st, we've received a volume of applications that have exceeded our forecasts, with several hundred account applications landing in our inbox in just a few hours.

While we anticipated significant interest, the amount of requests has surpassed our initial preparations. This demand is a testament to the trust and interest you've placed in Algocrat AI, and for that, we are thankful.

Our team is currently working intensively to review each application with the attention and care it deserves. We will be in touch with updates on your application status as soon as possible.

Thank you for your patience and for the incredible interest you've shown in Algocrat AI.

We're excited to embark on this journey with you and look forward to sharing many successes together.

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
Questions? Find Answers Here

Since our launch last week, we've received numerous inquiries. We realized many of your questions weren't directly addressed in our investor deck or help center.

To ensure clarity and transparency, we've compiled this general post to answer some of the most frequently asked questions:

Do You Apply the High Water Mark Principle?

Yes, Algocrat AI adheres to the high water mark rule when calculating the profit share fee. Here’s a breakdown of how it works:

1. During Negative Months: If your account incurs a loss in any month, no profit share fee is charged. Our objective is to encourage profitable management of your funds.
2. Recovery and New Peaks: Profit-share fees are only applied after your account recovers past losses and reaches a new high water mark—the peak value your account has achieved after deducting all fees. Only net profits beyond this new peak are subject to the profit share fee.

This ensures you’re charged a profit share fee solely on net profits, aligning our incentives with your success.

What Risk Level Is Displayed on the MyFxBook Track Record?

The MyFxBook track record showcases the high-risk setting. Here's how risk levels have been correlating with performance on live accounts since the inception of our trading strategy in 2019:

1. High Risk: Average monthly results are around 9-10%, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 47%.
2. Medium Risk: Halves the high-risk figures to 4.5-5% monthly gains, with about 24% maximum drawdown.
3. Low Risk: Further reduces to 2.25-2.5% monthly gains and approximately 12% maximum drawdown.

These figures illustrate the approximate balance between risk and reward at various levels, allowing you to make informed decisions.

Does Algocrat Use Grid Trading? How Is Risk Managed?

Algocrat AI does not use grid or martingale strategies. Our approach includes:

1. Stop-loss & Take-profit: Each position is safeguarded with predefined take-profit and stop-loss parameters.
2. Risk and Money Management: We apply comprehensive risk and money management practices to protect your and our capital.

By focusing on traditional and proven risk management techniques, Algocrat AI ensures a balanced and protected investment environment.

We hope these questions and answers clear your doubts and help you in deciding to join us in the future of crypto algorithmic trading.

If you're ready, you can do so right now:

🔗 Click here to apply now

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
💰Over $8,000,000 in Assets Under Management [Milestone]

While we're diligently processing the hundreds of applications received, we're thrilled to share a significant milestone achieved.

Thanks to the trust you've placed in us, and the speed with which some of our new clients have connected their accounts, we've witnessed a remarkable growth in our assets under management (AUM):

From an approximate initial $5,000,000 at launch, today, we proudly announce that our AUM has soared to over $8,000,000.

This +50% increase in just two weeks is a testament to the confidence and excitement surrounding Algocrat AI.

Your support fuels our commitment to delivering the exceptional crypto trading experience Algocrat AI intends to, and for that, we're deeply grateful.

Please remember our AUM limit for Q2 of 2024 is set at $20,000,000.

With only approximately $12,000,000 left available and the current pace of growth, we could be reaching our full capacity within weeks.

If your application has been accepted, we encourage you to secure your place in the Algocrat by connecting your Binance, MetaTrader or ByBit account without delay.

If you haven't applied yet, there's still a chance to join us this quarter. Submit your application now, and we'll endeavor to process it as swiftly as possible:

🔗 Click here to apply now and secure your spot

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team

P.S. - The future of crypto trading is happening now, and it's happening here. Don't miss your chance to be a part of it.
📈 April 2024 Results [Monthly Performance]

Hello!

April has flown by, and it's time to reflect on another successful month at Algocrat AI.

We're excited to share our latest performance figures and what they could mean for your trading journey.

This April, our high-risk setting yielded a robust account growth of 9.87%, accompanied by a maximum drawdown of 12.83%.

These figures aren't just numbers – they represent our commitment to driving strong results while managing risks effectively.

Check out our verified MyFxBook track record to see the details of this month's results:

🔗 Click Here To Access Our MyFxBook Track Record

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
💰$10,000,000 in Assets Under Management [Milestone]

Just one month after our official launch, we're thrilled to announce that Algocrat AI has crossed a significant milestone, reaching over $10,000,000 in assets under management (AUM).

This swift increase in AUM is a clear indicator of the trust you place in our capabilities and the effectiveness of our crypto trading solutions.

We are deeply grateful for your support, which continues to inspire our commitment to excellence.

As we progress, remember that our AUM limit for Q2 of 2024 is set at $20,000,000, meaning more than 50% of our availability has been already taken.

To ensure you don't miss out on being part of Algocrat AI's growth, link your Binance, MetaTrader, or ByBit accounts today.

Here’s how you can connect:

- Binance: Connect Your Binance Account
- MetaTrader: Connect Your MetaTrader Account
- ByBit: Connect Your ByBit Account

If you're not yet on board, now is the time to apply and secure your spot in the future of crypto trading:

🔗 Apply Now and Secure Your Spot

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
📈 May 2024 [Monthly Performance]

Hey there,

As we wrap up another month, we're excited to share the latest results from Algocrat AI.

May has been remarkable, with our high-risk setting achieving an account growth of 10.18%.

However, we also faced a maximum drawdown of 20.05%.

For a detailed look at our performance, visit our verified MyFxBook track record:

🔗 Click Here To Access Our MyFxBook Track Record

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
✍🏼 Clear All Your Doubts Here [Frequently Asked Questions]

Hi,

Since Algocrat AI's launch over two months ago, several important questions have come up repeatedly. Most of these have been covered in our help center, but some haven't. Let's go through them in detail:

1. What happens if I close trades manually?

Over time, manually closing trades often results in lower profits. Approximately 90% of our clients who intervene manually achieve lower returns compared to those who do not intervene manually over the course of a year. The remaining 10% might succeed occasionally, but this is largely due to chance. After evaluating hundreds of algorithms for closing trades, we have selected the most effective one for each system.

Frequent underperformance due to manual interventions might lead us to disconnect your account, as continued trading under these conditions often results in minimal profits, which are not viable for either party since our compensation is tied to profit sharing, not fixed fees or management charges.

Regarding potential technical issues, these depend on the platform you use. If you trade using MT4 or MT5, you shouldn't encounter technical problems. However, Binance operates differently, handling positions instead of trades. For instance, if you decide to close a 1.0 BTC buy trade, you would place a corresponding 1.0 BTC sell order. When our systems later determine it's optimal to close the trade, another 1.0 BTC sell order will be issued, leaving you with an open 1.0 BTC sell position until you close it manually. If you're prepared to manage this, then it should not be an issue.

Please note that we only factor in the profits from Algocrat's trades when calculating the performance fee. Any manual trades are solely your responsibility. Even if manual trades result in losses, but Algocrat's trades end the month profitably above the previous high watermark, you will still be required to pay the performance fee on the profits.

2. Why did I get different results from yours last month?

As you already know, the crypto market, as well as the Forex market, isn’t centralized. There is no single data source for it (unlike stock exchanges, as Nasdaq). That’s why quotes, trading conditions, and execution are often very different across brokers and exchanges. Plus, there are various server-side issues that we have no control over. Just recently, we experienced a brief Binance server outage (the first time in the last 2 years), which affected execution. For a few minutes, we could not send any orders. This also happens with all brokers, as no server has a 100% uptime. Due to these factors and the various differences between exchanges and brokers, it is impossible to have the same results across different brokers and exchanges. That’s why your results will always be at least a little bit different. If you want to have almost exactly the same results as our public Pepperstone track record, you should use the same broker. If you wish to have the best risk-adjusted return in the long run, you should use Binance, as it offers the best liquidity with the lowest expenses on the market, which generally results in better performance.

3. I just had a negative month. Is it normal?

Yes, it is normal. As you can see on our public Algocrat account, having 4-5 negative months in a year is a normal part of our strategy. Our main goal is not maximizing the number of positive months (which can be optimized, but it’s a completely different optimization criterion) but optimizing returns in the long run. After all, long-term profits are what a sensible trader should care about. We understand that this may be a concern, but it's a natural part of the trading process.

Hope you find this useful,

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
🔍 Understanding Crypto & Equities Correlation [Market Analysis]

There have been some interesting developments in the crypto market recently. As long-time readers probably know, we write market analysis posts every once in a while. This time around, we decided to focus on a topic that we haven't seen well covered in the mainstream media: the nature of BTC's correlation to equities.

Not too long ago, in 2018-2019, Bitcoin was virtually uncorrelated with equities. Its correlation oscillated between -0.2 and 0.3, frequently transitioning between positive and negative zones. This lack of correlation was a key factor in Bitcoin's appeal as a diversification tool. The primary investors in Bitcoin at that time were early adopters and retail investors, not the institutional investors who typically invest in the S&P 500. This explains the absence of correlation during these early years.

During the initial phase of the pandemic, there was a flight to liquidity, with investors selling off assets across the board to raise cash. This behavior caused simultaneous declines in both Bitcoin and equities, which were quite predictable. This also led the systems, which now evolved into the Algocrat AI portfolio, to have several very good months in a row. Basically, every time there is a 'fight or flight' event on the markets, there are good trending movements to capture significant profits.

However, even a few months after that, the correlation remained positive. Initially, this likely resulted from massive monetary stimulus measures by central banks around the world. Both the stock market and Bitcoin benefited from these measures, leading to rising prices and increased correlation. Subsequently, the main factors in play have been the trend of institutional investment, integrating Bitcoin more closely with traditional financial markets, and broader economic factors, such as inflation expectations, interest rate changes, and fiscal policies, impacting both equities and cryptocurrencies.

Interestingly, we saw an upward spike in correlation after the BTC ETF approval in January of this year. Given current macroeconomic trends, continued institutional adoption, and the market integration of cryptocurrencies, it's plausible that we will see a higher correlation between these assets in the coming months and years.

What does this mean for the Algocrat AI portfolio? Since it is designed to work well with Bitcoin during periods of both high and low correlation with equities, it doesn't mean anything specific. We have considered various correlation metrics when developing the systems comprising the portfolio and haven't found anything that can increase their edge.

Still, the Algocrat portfolio scored good gains on our public Algocrat AI account during recent months, and recent Binance results are even better than that (and they are, on average, better since Binance is still the biggest crypto exchange out there). Algocrat AI is designed specifically to take advantage of crypto market trends "on autopilot," regardless of the market context.

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
📈 June 2024 [Monthly Performance]

Hello everyone,

As we close out another month, we're eager to share the latest performance results from Algocrat AI.

June was solid, with our high-risk setting achieving an account growth of 6.41%.

On the flip side, we also experienced a maximum drawdown of 11.01%.

As always, for a comprehensive overview of our performance, you can visit our verified MyFxBook track record:

🔗 Click Here To Access Our MyFxBook Track Record

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
🚀 How We Made 37.8% In 5 Days [Performance Analysis]

Recently, Algocrat AI's proprietary trading system did what it does best: it caught a large trend in the crypto market, outperforming most investors who primarily hold BTC and ETH, achieving an account growth of 37.8% in just 5 days.

Let’s take a closer look at what happened:

First, a quick note: we will be discussing the Algocrat AI portfolio results on this public Pepperstone account. Due to the varying crypto quotes, execution, and expenses across different brokers and exchanges, results will differ between platforms. However, long-term performance and overall trends remain consistent. Accounts on Binance and other Forex brokers we work with have also seen substantial profits recently. Those using the same broker (Pepperstone) achieved results almost identical to ours.

So, what happened? In 2014, hackers breached the now-famous and defunct Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange, which at the time handled about 70% of the total trading volume. They stole 850,000 bitcoins, which the exchange has been trying to recover ever since.

Mt. Gox recovered 141,868 bitcoins, which it will distribute among its clients. The total value of the returning BTC is $7.7 billion. For comparison, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, one of the main drivers of the crypto bull market, amounted to $14.6 billion.

Market participants fear that the exchange's clients will sell the cryptocurrency, as Bitcoin has risen by 12,100% since then. Combined with the large volume of funds being returned, this could create strong downward pressure on the price.

Consequently, BTC fell by about 7% over the last week, dragging the entire market down with it. Almost all altcoins, including Ethereum, experienced even steeper declines, as is typical in such scenarios.

Was this unexpected? Not really. It was known in advance that Mt. Gox would start repaying its customers. So why the market reaction? Typically, such volatility arises from unexpected news.

The crypto market is still immature and, therefore, susceptible to manipulation. Large market participants often use such events to create volatility, allowing them to capitalize on the panic. By triggering a sell-off, they can profit from the downward movements. Additionally, the start of payments was likely to push the market even further down. This is precisely what has happened over the last few days and weeks.

By looking at the charts, one can understand that some large market participants likely positioned themselves ahead of this movement. This pattern of manipulation and exploitation is something Algocrat AI anticipated and strategically navigated, thereby outperforming the broader market. And while we are not whales by any metric, we can align our positions with some of these whales, capturing robust profits as a result.

We hope this was interesting and insightful.

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team

PS - 57% of all Algocrat AI's capital availability has already been taken. If you'd like to secure your spot as an Algocrat AI client before it's too late, click here and apply right now.
💰When To Join Algocrat AI For Maximum Returns [Entry Point Strategies Analysis]

After our last post, we received many questions about the best point of entry. After all, Algocrat AI just reached an all-time high, and it's usually not the best time to start investing, right? Well, as usual, financial reality is a little more complicated than that.

There are two equally valid ways of thinking to tackle this question. First, if there was a straightforward way to maximize profits, such as through more precise market timing or refraining from trading after reaching an all-time high, Algocrat AI would have already adopted it. This is why its equity curve appears random to an outside observer. In other words, it's nearly impossible to predict whether there will be a drawdown or another really good month after reaching an all-time high.

Secondly, since Algocrat AI's performance is not really predictable in the short run, it's very similar to the age-old question of market timing: When is it best to enter the S&P 500? Market theorists have studied this question extensively for decades and have concluded that it is best summarized by a well-known Chinese proverb: "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now". On average, it’s usually more profitable to invest everything at once.

That said, just like with stocks, a drawdown sometimes occurs after reaching an all-time high with the Algocrat AI portfolio. If you encounter this drawdown soon after starting to invest, it may mean nothing from the system's standpoint, but it can be psychologically challenging. If you decide to invest a certain amount, you can invest a part of it now while saving a part for later to reduce psychological discomfort in case of encountering a drawdown soon after joining the Algocrat AI.

Additionally, you may start by thinking about what you want to maximize: your overall potential returns or your psychological comfort. Due to loss aversion embedded in our psyche, one of the best ways to minimize psychological discomfort is to wait for a drawdown. This is not the most profitable decision, as you will often miss good returns by doing so, but if you are seeking comfort first and foremost, you can invest a part now and wait for a drawdown to invest the rest.

So, that’s it — a quick overview of popular ways to time your investments.

Hope you find it useful.

Best regards,
The Algocrat AI
🧪 The Science Behind Timing The Markets [Market Theory Deep Dive]

The last two posts attracted attention, and we’ve received requests asking for details about market timing, as our proprietary trading systems shorted Bitcoin with perfect precision, getting out at the very end of the movement, achieving an account growth of 37.8% in just 5 days.

This is a very important question that applies equally well to stock market, crypto, and Algocrat AI investments. That’s why we decided to make a more in-depth continuation of this post.

First of all, it’s well-known that phrasing the question in a meaningful way is often the most difficult part of any research. So, let’s phrase the question correctly first. Suppose we have a portfolio of growing assets to invest in — stocks, bonds, crypto, and effective trading strategies. What’s the best way to do it on average?

The most important thing here is what exactly we are trying to maximize. We have not clearly stated what “the best way” means above, and that’s for a reason. When designing a trading system, a trader can optimize various metrics: maximize overall return, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, minimize drawdown, and so on. By choosing the metric to optimize, we decide what is the most important thing for us.

This should be easy — just maximize returns, right? Well, not quite. As it turns out, for many people, psychological comfort is actually more important than the returns they see per se. Since most people perceive losses to be more painful than the satisfaction from returns of the same magnitude, people often prioritize their psychological comfort over gaining more money. Another important metric to consider is whether the proposed solution is easy to manage. If it needs constant attention and frequent calculations, investors are less likely to consider it.

Having all of this in mind, let’s go through the different options:

💰 Lump-sum investing: Studies have shown that, historically, lump-sum investing tends to outperform dollar-cost averaging (DCA) about two-thirds of the time. This is because markets generally trend upward over time, so the sooner the investment is made, the more time it has to grow. This is confirmed by a Vanguard study conducted in 2023 and similar studies by other researchers over the years. Vanguard analyzed U.S., U.K., and Australian markets and found that lump-sum investing outperformed DCA in 68% of cases over a 10-year period. That said, this paper also compares these two strategies using 10,000 simulated-return scenarios that tested various types of portfolios and CA period lengths. Consistent with findings from the historical analysis, LS in most cases yielded greater wealth after one year than CA, but also greater losses in some of the worst market environments. So, if we aim at maximum returns on average and the easiest solution (keeping in mind the Occam’s razor principle), we should choose LS investment. However, if we optimize for the psychological comfort of the investor, DCA can actually be more advantageous since it does not produce such losses as LS would in falling markets

💸 Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): As mentioned above, DCA is often recommended for investors who are risk-averse or who are concerned about market volatility. By spreading out the investment, the investor reduces the risk of entering the market at a peak. DCA can help mitigate the psychological impact of market volatility. It prevents the regret associated with investing a lump sum right before a market decline. At the same time, it is also a way to get a risk-averse investor into the market, as markets tend to outperform cash about 70% of the time. Apart from the above-mentioned Vanguard study, Leggio and Lien (2003) found that while DCA might reduce risk, it also often results in lower returns compared to lump-sum investing due to the market’s general upward trend. For people willing to have a sound but unorthodox view on this subject, we highly recommend reading the “Explaining the Riddle of Dollar-Cost Averaging” paper by Simon Hayley