🔓 How Access to Nova Will Work [Upcoming Portfolio]
Over the past few posts, we’ve introduced Nova, our upcoming portfolio at Algocrat AI.
We explained its strategy, its verified track record, and how it adapts to the current crypto market conditions.
Now, it’s time to explain how this new portfolio will be accessible:
Nova will be introduced as a new product within Algocrat AI, operating independently from the portfolio that has been running until today.
Our existing portfolio will continue trading as usual, and all connected accounts will remain active — unless you choose to disconnect or switch portfolio.
For clarity moving forward, this existing portfolio will now be referred to as 'Legacy'.
The 'Legacy' portfolio will continue to run separately.
To connect a new account:
When connecting an account through the Algocrat dashboard, you will soon be able to select which portfolio to connect to.
Just like you already select your preferred risk level.
A new dropdown menu will display both options,
‘Legacy’ (the existing portfolio) and ‘Nova’ (the new one).
To connect an existing account:
There will also be a “Change Portfolio” in case you wish to keep using your existing account but migrate to the new portfolio.
Thanks to our recent system upgrades, all new connections and switches will be handled automatically, with no delays or waiting periods.
In our next post, we’ll share important details about accessing Nova — stay tuned.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
Over the past few posts, we’ve introduced Nova, our upcoming portfolio at Algocrat AI.
We explained its strategy, its verified track record, and how it adapts to the current crypto market conditions.
Now, it’s time to explain how this new portfolio will be accessible:
Nova will be introduced as a new product within Algocrat AI, operating independently from the portfolio that has been running until today.
Our existing portfolio will continue trading as usual, and all connected accounts will remain active — unless you choose to disconnect or switch portfolio.
For clarity moving forward, this existing portfolio will now be referred to as 'Legacy'.
The 'Legacy' portfolio will continue to run separately.
To connect a new account:
When connecting an account through the Algocrat dashboard, you will soon be able to select which portfolio to connect to.
Just like you already select your preferred risk level.
A new dropdown menu will display both options,
‘Legacy’ (the existing portfolio) and ‘Nova’ (the new one).
To connect an existing account:
There will also be a “Change Portfolio” in case you wish to keep using your existing account but migrate to the new portfolio.
Thanks to our recent system upgrades, all new connections and switches will be handled automatically, with no delays or waiting periods.
In our next post, we’ll share important details about accessing Nova — stay tuned.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
📊 +4.21% / November 2025 [Monthly Performance]
We’re happy to report another positive month for Algocrat AI, with +4.21% account growth and a maximum drawdown of 6.23% in November.
Our systems remained adaptive throughout the month, managing risk effectively and capturing opportunities despite shifting market conditions.
Looking Ahead:
Our team has been working nonstop behind the scenes all year long, and we’re genuinely excited to show you everything we’ve been building — very soon.
From an upcoming new portfolio, Nova, to broader user experiece improvements, there’s a lot on the way that we believe will take Algocrat to the next level in 2026.
For full transparency, you can always check our verified MyFxBook track record:
🔗 Click Here To Check Our Track Record Now
Thank you to all our clients for your continued trust — let’s finish the year strong!
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
We’re happy to report another positive month for Algocrat AI, with +4.21% account growth and a maximum drawdown of 6.23% in November.
Our systems remained adaptive throughout the month, managing risk effectively and capturing opportunities despite shifting market conditions.
Looking Ahead:
Our team has been working nonstop behind the scenes all year long, and we’re genuinely excited to show you everything we’ve been building — very soon.
From an upcoming new portfolio, Nova, to broader user experiece improvements, there’s a lot on the way that we believe will take Algocrat to the next level in 2026.
For full transparency, you can always check our verified MyFxBook track record:
🔗 Click Here To Check Our Track Record Now
Thank you to all our clients for your continued trust — let’s finish the year strong!
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
🏃➡️ Nova Launches Soon — and Spots Are Almost Gone [Limited Capacity]
We’re getting close to the official launch of Nova, the new portfolio at Algocrat AI.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve received an overwhelming number of messages and applications from both existing and new clients.
The excitement around this release has exceeded all expectations.
As always, at Algocrat AI, we operate with a client-first philosophy.
That means we intentionally limit the total trading capital allocated behind our systems.
To maintain performance integrity, protect execution quality, and ensure we can continue providing high-level support to you.
How the capacity limits work:
As of today, the capital limit for Algocrat AI is set at $30,000,000 USD.
Out of this, almost $25,000,000 are already allocated — leaving only $5,000,000, or less than 20% of the total capacity still available.
Once this limit is reached, applications will be paused until we evaluate the impact of the new capital inflow and decide whether to expand the limit further.
If you’re planning to join Nova and want to secure your spot, make sure your Algocrat AI application is complete and that you’re ready to send your connection request as soon as the portfolio becomes available.
Secure your spot now:
👉 Click here to apply
Access will be granted on a first-come, first-served basis, with priority given to existing Algocrat clients who already have connected accounts.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
We’re getting close to the official launch of Nova, the new portfolio at Algocrat AI.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve received an overwhelming number of messages and applications from both existing and new clients.
The excitement around this release has exceeded all expectations.
As always, at Algocrat AI, we operate with a client-first philosophy.
That means we intentionally limit the total trading capital allocated behind our systems.
To maintain performance integrity, protect execution quality, and ensure we can continue providing high-level support to you.
How the capacity limits work:
As of today, the capital limit for Algocrat AI is set at $30,000,000 USD.
Out of this, almost $25,000,000 are already allocated — leaving only $5,000,000, or less than 20% of the total capacity still available.
Once this limit is reached, applications will be paused until we evaluate the impact of the new capital inflow and decide whether to expand the limit further.
If you’re planning to join Nova and want to secure your spot, make sure your Algocrat AI application is complete and that you’re ready to send your connection request as soon as the portfolio becomes available.
Secure your spot now:
👉 Click here to apply
Access will be granted on a first-come, first-served basis, with priority given to existing Algocrat clients who already have connected accounts.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
🎄 Holiday Trading Pause: Dec 22 – Jan 4
We’ve decided to pause trading on all Algocrat AI master accounts from December 22 to January 4.
This decision is driven by reduced technical support across many brokers during the Christmas and New Year holidays. If any broker-side issues occur during this period, resolution times can be significantly longer than usual.
By pausing the master accounts, all connected accounts are automatically protected — no action is required on your end.
While this may result in missing some short-term trading opportunities, we believe the downside risk during this period outweighs the potential upside.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
We’ve decided to pause trading on all Algocrat AI master accounts from December 22 to January 4.
This decision is driven by reduced technical support across many brokers during the Christmas and New Year holidays. If any broker-side issues occur during this period, resolution times can be significantly longer than usual.
By pausing the master accounts, all connected accounts are automatically protected — no action is required on your end.
While this may result in missing some short-term trading opportunities, we believe the downside risk during this period outweighs the potential upside.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
⏳ Nova: 24 Hours Until Launch [New Portfolio]
In 24 hours, our new portfolio, Nova, goes live at Algocrat AI.
Over the past months, we’ve introduced the logic behind it, the live track record, and how access will work.
What started as a quiet internal redevelopment is now about to become publicly available.
Limited capacity reminder:
Nova is launching with a strict capital limit.
Once capacity is reached, access will be paused until we assess the impact and decide whether to expand further.
If you’re planning to connect or switch to Nova, now is the time to be ready:
- Make sure your Algocrat AI application is complete
- Ensure your account is prepared for connection
- Be ready to act as soon as Nova becomes available
Access will be granted on a first-come, first-served basis, with priority given to existing connected clients.
This isn’t a countdown to hype.
It’s a transition to the next phase of Algocrat AI.
24 hours to go.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
In 24 hours, our new portfolio, Nova, goes live at Algocrat AI.
Over the past months, we’ve introduced the logic behind it, the live track record, and how access will work.
What started as a quiet internal redevelopment is now about to become publicly available.
Limited capacity reminder:
Nova is launching with a strict capital limit.
Once capacity is reached, access will be paused until we assess the impact and decide whether to expand further.
If you’re planning to connect or switch to Nova, now is the time to be ready:
- Make sure your Algocrat AI application is complete
- Ensure your account is prepared for connection
- Be ready to act as soon as Nova becomes available
Access will be granted on a first-come, first-served basis, with priority given to existing connected clients.
This isn’t a countdown to hype.
It’s a transition to the next phase of Algocrat AI.
24 hours to go.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
🚀 Nova Is Now Available [Get Access Now]
The wait is finally over.
Nova, our new trading portfolio at Algocrat AI, is now live and available.
Here’s how to get access now:
You can connect to Nova directly from your user dashboard — either by:
- Connecting a new trading account, or
- Switching portfolios on an existing account
All connections and portfolio switches are now fully automated.
There are no waiting times, no manual approvals, and no delays.
If you're ready:
👉 Click here to get access to Nova now
Welcome to the next phase of Algocrat AI.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
The wait is finally over.
Nova, our new trading portfolio at Algocrat AI, is now live and available.
Here’s how to get access now:
You can connect to Nova directly from your user dashboard — either by:
- Connecting a new trading account, or
- Switching portfolios on an existing account
All connections and portfolio switches are now fully automated.
There are no waiting times, no manual approvals, and no delays.
If you're ready:
👉 Click here to get access to Nova now
Welcome to the next phase of Algocrat AI.
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
✨ New Website & Dashboard [Major Update]
Over the past year, our team has been working extensively behind the scenes on a major upgrade to Algocrat AI.
Today, we’d like to share what’s new — and what this unlocks for you moving forward.
1. Updated website:
We’ve rolled out an improved version of our website with,
- Cleaner, more intuitive UI/UX
- Better structured information and documentation
- Clearer explanations around portfolios, risk levels, and access
The goal is simple: to make it easier to understand how everything works — before and after you join.
2. Revamped User Dashboard:
The user dashboard has been significantly upgraded, with a strong focus on multi-account visibility and automation. You can now,
- View aggregated data across multiple accounts, not just one
- Add or remove accounts from charts with one click, and visually compare them side by side
- Automatically connect, pause or disconnect accounts as well as switching portfolios and changing risk levels, with one click
All of these actions are now processed within seconds, with no manual handling and no waiting times.
This represents a major step forward in terms of transparency, control, and user experience.
3. Access to Nova:
As part of these system upgrades, access is now available to Nova, our new trading portfolio.
More improvements are already in progress, and we’ll continue rolling them out step by step.
We’ll share further updates soon.
Ready to see what's new with your own eyes?
👉 Click here to check the new website now
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
Over the past year, our team has been working extensively behind the scenes on a major upgrade to Algocrat AI.
Today, we’d like to share what’s new — and what this unlocks for you moving forward.
1. Updated website:
We’ve rolled out an improved version of our website with,
- Cleaner, more intuitive UI/UX
- Better structured information and documentation
- Clearer explanations around portfolios, risk levels, and access
The goal is simple: to make it easier to understand how everything works — before and after you join.
2. Revamped User Dashboard:
The user dashboard has been significantly upgraded, with a strong focus on multi-account visibility and automation. You can now,
- View aggregated data across multiple accounts, not just one
- Add or remove accounts from charts with one click, and visually compare them side by side
- Automatically connect, pause or disconnect accounts as well as switching portfolios and changing risk levels, with one click
All of these actions are now processed within seconds, with no manual handling and no waiting times.
This represents a major step forward in terms of transparency, control, and user experience.
3. Access to Nova:
As part of these system upgrades, access is now available to Nova, our new trading portfolio.
More improvements are already in progress, and we’ll continue rolling them out step by step.
We’ll share further updates soon.
Ready to see what's new with your own eyes?
👉 Click here to check the new website now
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
🦾 We Expanded the 'Legacy' Portfolio. Here’s Why. [Strategy Update]
Over the past year, we've been working hard behind the scenes to improve all aspects of our cryptocurrency trading at Algocrat AI.
This includes determining optimal points of entry and exit, selecting assets and their proportions, understanding how execution varies across venues, and analyzing market changes over the last 1-3 years to identify the most likely trends and the adaptations to them.
After analyzing extensive data, we've decided to add a different version of the systems to our Legacy portfolio.
Why we decided to expand it:
This version generally performs better in low-volatility, choppy ranges, like what we've experienced in 2023 and 2025, but may underperform in more dynamic conditions, which have been typical in most other years.
Since markets are cyclical in many aspects of their behavior, and it's impossible to predict which cycle we'll see next, we decided not to replace our entire logic but to expand our portfolio to include both approaches.
This effectively doubles the number of systems in the portfolio, combining the best of both worlds.
What exactly has been changed?
First, we've significantly revised entry conditions, now focusing on rarer, higher-quality setups.
Second, a larger share of our trading activity will target Ethereum rather than Bitcoin, which makes sense given Ethereum's historically stronger performance.
Ethereum accounts for about 25% of our volume but nearly 50% of our profits.
While we already shifted our portfolio toward Ethereum earlier last year, we're now emphasizing this shift even more.
Lastly, we've started exiting the market more quickly, requiring smaller relative movements to do so.
Although we made similar changes earlier last year, after reviewing the entirety of 2025 data, we've decided to reinforce this approach.
How will this affect the 'Legacy' portfolio:
From this point forward, the Legacy portfolio will have two variations: a "true" Legacy portion that performs better outside tight ranges, and a "range-bound" portfolio that, on average, performs better during tight ranges.
Of course, this is an oversimplification, and each option has its own pros and cons.
For example, by exiting trades earlier, we reduce trade expectancy, making systems more prone to execution issues and higher expenses.
Also, with fewer independent entries, the sample size is smaller, forcing us to rely on heuristics even more than before.
However, we wouldn't be who we are now if we weren't adaptive to the markets' non-stationary nature.
These changes, while significant, make logical sense and allow us not only to follow the market's movements but also to anticipate changes in advance, based on the trends we can already observe.
We've prepared an illustration of what this looks like in practice.
What you need to do:
No action is required from existing Legacy users — the portfolio expansion is handled automatically on our side.
New users can apply for access through the platform and, once approved, connect their accounts to Legacy directly from the dashboard.
👉 Click here to access now
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
Over the past year, we've been working hard behind the scenes to improve all aspects of our cryptocurrency trading at Algocrat AI.
This includes determining optimal points of entry and exit, selecting assets and their proportions, understanding how execution varies across venues, and analyzing market changes over the last 1-3 years to identify the most likely trends and the adaptations to them.
After analyzing extensive data, we've decided to add a different version of the systems to our Legacy portfolio.
Why we decided to expand it:
This version generally performs better in low-volatility, choppy ranges, like what we've experienced in 2023 and 2025, but may underperform in more dynamic conditions, which have been typical in most other years.
Since markets are cyclical in many aspects of their behavior, and it's impossible to predict which cycle we'll see next, we decided not to replace our entire logic but to expand our portfolio to include both approaches.
This effectively doubles the number of systems in the portfolio, combining the best of both worlds.
What exactly has been changed?
First, we've significantly revised entry conditions, now focusing on rarer, higher-quality setups.
Second, a larger share of our trading activity will target Ethereum rather than Bitcoin, which makes sense given Ethereum's historically stronger performance.
Ethereum accounts for about 25% of our volume but nearly 50% of our profits.
While we already shifted our portfolio toward Ethereum earlier last year, we're now emphasizing this shift even more.
Lastly, we've started exiting the market more quickly, requiring smaller relative movements to do so.
Although we made similar changes earlier last year, after reviewing the entirety of 2025 data, we've decided to reinforce this approach.
How will this affect the 'Legacy' portfolio:
From this point forward, the Legacy portfolio will have two variations: a "true" Legacy portion that performs better outside tight ranges, and a "range-bound" portfolio that, on average, performs better during tight ranges.
Of course, this is an oversimplification, and each option has its own pros and cons.
For example, by exiting trades earlier, we reduce trade expectancy, making systems more prone to execution issues and higher expenses.
Also, with fewer independent entries, the sample size is smaller, forcing us to rely on heuristics even more than before.
However, we wouldn't be who we are now if we weren't adaptive to the markets' non-stationary nature.
These changes, while significant, make logical sense and allow us not only to follow the market's movements but also to anticipate changes in advance, based on the trends we can already observe.
We've prepared an illustration of what this looks like in practice.
What you need to do:
No action is required from existing Legacy users — the portfolio expansion is handled automatically on our side.
New users can apply for access through the platform and, once approved, connect their accounts to Legacy directly from the dashboard.
👉 Click here to access now
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
📊 +52.76% / January 2026 [Monthly Performance]
After a challenging 2025 at Algocrat AI, a year where we worked nonstop behind the scenes to improve our systems, launch new strategies, and enhance the overall user experience—we’re excited to report that 2026 has started in the best possible way.
Here’s how both portfolios performed this month:
🌪 Legacy Portfolio
+41.34% growth
8.70% maximum drawdown
Achieved a new all-time high after 6 years of live trading
☀️ Nova Portfolio
+11.42% growth
3.84% maximum drawdown
Between both portfolios, we've achieved an extraordinary +52.76% growth in just one month.
A few words from our team:
We want to take a moment to celebrate these results—and to thank and congratulate all of you who stayed with us during 2025.
Your patience, trust, and long-term mindset are now being rewarded.
This is exactly why Algocrat AI is built for serious, long-term traders: because navigating the tougher phases makes moments like this possible.
As always, our live MyFxBook track records remains public for you to verify:
🔗 Click Here To Check Our Track Record Now
Here’s to a powerful 2026 — and more milestones to come.
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
After a challenging 2025 at Algocrat AI, a year where we worked nonstop behind the scenes to improve our systems, launch new strategies, and enhance the overall user experience—we’re excited to report that 2026 has started in the best possible way.
Here’s how both portfolios performed this month:
+41.34% growth
8.70% maximum drawdown
Achieved a new all-time high after 6 years of live trading
+11.42% growth
3.84% maximum drawdown
Between both portfolios, we've achieved an extraordinary +52.76% growth in just one month.
A few words from our team:
We want to take a moment to celebrate these results—and to thank and congratulate all of you who stayed with us during 2025.
Your patience, trust, and long-term mindset are now being rewarded.
This is exactly why Algocrat AI is built for serious, long-term traders: because navigating the tougher phases makes moments like this possible.
As always, our live MyFxBook track records remains public for you to verify:
🔗 Click Here To Check Our Track Record Now
Here’s to a powerful 2026 — and more milestones to come.
Best regards,
The Algocrat AI Team
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Recently, the cryptocurrency market tanked, while Algocrat AI systems reached an all-time high, delivering 52.76% returns in January.
Just before that, we saw a significant drop in capital behind our systems as our clients were losing confidence.
But is it a coincidence?
First, let's see what happened:
Our systems generated 52.76% overall account growth this month.
We've had profitable trades from mid-January through the end of the month.
The market moved back and forth, and we made money on both long and short positions.
You can see examples of our trading decisions in the screenshots attached to this post.
It's well-known that financial markets are cyclical: periods of mania and euphoria are followed by periods of panic, fear, and corrections.
The same is true with trading systems:
As soon as any trading edge starts making serious money (like Algocrat AI did in 2024, offering whopping 300%+ yearly gross returns),
People from all over the world often rush to that edge, hoping the same high returns will continue.
This can make the edge less pronounced, resulting in a period of lower returns (as we saw in 2025).
That period of lower returns prompts people to reallocate resources to other edges, perhaps even to different markets.
And this, in turn, allows the edge to thrive again.
Is that always the case?
Of course, this doesn't happen exactly this way every time, but the pattern is consistent enough to be worth paying attention to.
And it's partly responsible for a phenomenon we've observed: withdrawals followed by periods of good performance.
That said, this month we've been doing the same thing we've done publicly for the last 6 years: boring, systematic trading.
It's probably not the most profitable way to trade, but it has been consistent for years and has kept risks under control.
That's the most important thing in trading: keep risks controlled, follow a good system, and profits come as a result.
The kind of profits you could be getting if you joined Algocrat AI.
If you're ready to join the winning side:
🔗 Click here to apply now and secure your spot
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
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"Why aren't you trading the latest trends at Algocrat AI?"
That's the question we've been asked most recently.
Why everyone's asking that:
After reaching an all-time high just a week ago for both the Algocrat AI's Legacy and Nova portfolios, we witnessed wild market movements unlike anything we've seen in a long time.
We've seen a generation of market participants grow up without ever experiencing such a daily sell-off.
For referece, we've compared it to other historical precedents.
You can see an overview of the results in the attached screenshot.
The sell-off:
In short, this has been the 5th-largest daily drop in Binance Futures' history and the largest in the last 3 years.
The last time we saw such a drop was in November 2022, during the FTX collapse.
That said, it was nowhere near the largest drop ever recorded by Binance Futures - almost -40% during the 2020 COVID crash, as shown in the charts attached to this post
Why we stayed out:
Intraday trading in such high volatility is often a gamble.
With overall market volatility reduced, such events are becoming increasingly rare.
The last time such a sell-off occurred was more than 3 years ago.
In other words, if one waits for such events to occur, they'll lose more money trying to catch them and failing than by simply staying on the sidelines.
Why sometimes the best trades are the ones you do not take:
One of the hardest yet most important skills for a trader is recognizing which market conditions are favorable and which aren't.
Our research suggests that periods of extreme volatility are unfavorable for most forms of intraday trading.
That's why we haven't had much trading activity in the last few days.
Have we turned off our systems?
Absolutely not.
Staying out does not mean the systems are idle.
They are always actively monitoring the market.
Nova even had a few profitable trades
But they know, on average, when it's a good time to trade, so they can enter the market with higher conviction and ultimately achieve better results over the long run.
Moreover:
We've recently developed a new system designed for high-volatility conditions.
It made its first trade during this drop, a winning one.
After completing additional testing, we'll likely add it to the Nova portfolio.
If you want to get access while you still can:
🔗 Click here to apply now
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
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📉 What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis]
After the last post, many people wondered: what does BTC usually do after a move like this?
Nobody can fully predict the future, but we can look for similar historical events and see what happened next.
For reference: we'll use Binance Futures data for the purposes of this research post.
Futures are useful here because liquidation-driven moves often show up clearly in perp data.
What happened on February 5
February 5 was a classic "capitulation day": a large daily drop, heavy intraday selling, a close near the day's low, and a major activity spike.
There were at least 5 similar historical events in the Bitcoin Futures data.
These were 2020-03-12 (COVID crash), 2022-01-21, 2022-05-09, 2022-06-13, and 2022-11-09 (FTX collapse).
For robustness, we'll also look at a broader sample of 13 historical days where the close-to-close daily return was lower than -10% (and where we have a full 30-day window after the event).
The short-term bounce pattern
One of the main insights: a short-term bounce is common.
Across those 13 -10%+ crash days, the median next-day return is +2.8% (mean +3.7%). So, mean reversion often happens.
But the "second dip" base rate is even higher.
Within the next 30 days after a -10% crash day, BTC traded below the crash-day low at least once in 92% of cases (12/13).
That's why crash-day mean reversion can be profitable but dangerous: the market often bounces first, then retests (and sometimes breaks) the low later.
Why the market can bounce and still go lower
This seems counterintuitive: if a rollback is likely, how can the market usually go lower?
The distribution of outcomes after the crash is two-sided: BTC can rebound sharply and still print a lower low inside the next week/month.
A "risk/opportunity map" makes this obvious: many crash episodes include both +5…+15% upside and -5…-15% downside within the same week.
The February 6 V-bounce
One more nuance: Feb 6 was a strong V-bounce.
In the Binance Futures dataset, the pattern "-10% crash day + next day >= +5%" happened only 4 times historically.
In those cases, the probability of a deep second leg (=5% below the crash low) fell to 25% (1/4), but big pullbacks from the bounce were still common (-11%-24% within 30 days).
The trading takeaway
We've seen numerous analyses predicting both outcomes over the last few days.
However, the statistical evidence doesn't provide a clear answer.
It says: expect a bounce and respect the high retest/volatility risk.
If you trade the rebound, do so with a plan for tails. If you missed the rebound, chasing is usually worse than waiting for pullbacks.
If you don't want to guess and would like to automate the whole process with a time-tested, proven algorithmic approach,
It's as easy as signing up with Algocrat AI:
🔗 Click here to apply now
Best,
The Algocrat AI Team
After the last post, many people wondered: what does BTC usually do after a move like this?
Nobody can fully predict the future, but we can look for similar historical events and see what happened next.
For reference: we'll use Binance Futures data for the purposes of this research post.
Futures are useful here because liquidation-driven moves often show up clearly in perp data.
What happened on February 5
February 5 was a classic "capitulation day": a large daily drop, heavy intraday selling, a close near the day's low, and a major activity spike.
There were at least 5 similar historical events in the Bitcoin Futures data.
These were 2020-03-12 (COVID crash), 2022-01-21, 2022-05-09, 2022-06-13, and 2022-11-09 (FTX collapse).
For robustness, we'll also look at a broader sample of 13 historical days where the close-to-close daily return was lower than -10% (and where we have a full 30-day window after the event).
The short-term bounce pattern
One of the main insights: a short-term bounce is common.
Across those 13 -10%+ crash days, the median next-day return is +2.8% (mean +3.7%). So, mean reversion often happens.
But the "second dip" base rate is even higher.
Within the next 30 days after a -10% crash day, BTC traded below the crash-day low at least once in 92% of cases (12/13).
That's why crash-day mean reversion can be profitable but dangerous: the market often bounces first, then retests (and sometimes breaks) the low later.
Why the market can bounce and still go lower
This seems counterintuitive: if a rollback is likely, how can the market usually go lower?
The distribution of outcomes after the crash is two-sided: BTC can rebound sharply and still print a lower low inside the next week/month.
A "risk/opportunity map" makes this obvious: many crash episodes include both +5…+15% upside and -5…-15% downside within the same week.
The February 6 V-bounce
One more nuance: Feb 6 was a strong V-bounce.
In the Binance Futures dataset, the pattern "-10% crash day + next day >= +5%" happened only 4 times historically.
In those cases, the probability of a deep second leg (=5% below the crash low) fell to 25% (1/4), but big pullbacks from the bounce were still common (-11%-24% within 30 days).
The trading takeaway
We've seen numerous analyses predicting both outcomes over the last few days.
However, the statistical evidence doesn't provide a clear answer.
It says: expect a bounce and respect the high retest/volatility risk.
If you trade the rebound, do so with a plan for tails. If you missed the rebound, chasing is usually worse than waiting for pullbacks.
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Best,
The Algocrat AI Team