Die Anzeichen verdichten sich:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/war-preparations-under-way-in-iran-as-hormuz-tensions-with-us-escalate

Ui:

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2026/05/04/uae-issues-alert-for-potential-missile-threats-

Sieht so aus, dass auch Israel die Hilfe der Ukraine bei der Drohnenabwehr braucht:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hunted-by-drones-it-should-have-seen-coming-israels-lebanon-strategy-is-now-at-risk/

Da kommt was auf uns zu:

"The energy stockpile question is the one that’s been on my mind since February. When the Iran war broke out, Asia kept running on inventories. Those were drawn down. Hard. These pools are now basically tapped as I understand it (If you’re from Asia ex-China, please join the comments to tell me if the news I’m reading is wrong or not).
Same picture in the west. The way I see it is that through SPR releases they just buy some time for the global picture to stabilise. But these releases won’t manufacture actual barrels. They’re your storage cabinet that you’re eating into. Once it’s bare, you don’t have a buffer anymore.
And then you’ll move onto demand destruction because of higher oil prices. Which leads to corporate margin compression and consumer spending shocks. Think 70’s or ‘08 on steroids.
Those will land in earnings reports. Earnings reports will land in equity prices. And once equity prices start moving meaningfully lower, you get the second-order effects that actually break things.
Margin calls. Forced selling. Levered positions being unwound at whatever bid is on the screen. In a liquidity event, you don’t sell what you want to sell. You sell what you can sell. Gold and silver are among the most liquid hedges anyone can hold, which is why they get sold first. Not because anyone has changed their mind about gold or silver. Because the broker has called and the only assets that can be liquidated in size at speed are the ones with deep order books."

https://no01.substack.com/p/the-liquidity-squeeze-20

Hier schreibt noch jemand über die neue Petro-Dominanz der USA:

"In just 90 days, the US have executed an energy blitzkrieg decades in the making:
- Hundreds of strikes on Russian tankers and refineries
- Disrupting a third of China’s oil and LNG supply
- Capturing the largest oil reserves on the planet
- Establishing a global naval blockade from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean

And in the process, kidnapped and assassinated two heads of state. We are witnessing the transition of the United States from an empire into a lawless Pirate State, and the birth of what I call the Petrogas-dollar or LNG-Dollar."

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

Wichtiger Punkt aus dem Artikel:

"China receive around 1/3 of their oil from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran combined —partnerships they consider strategic. The United States proceeded to target all three in the last 90 days with increasing escalation."

Auch spannend:

"This explains why Donald Trump is so interested in Greenland and Canada, and why the Royal Navy deployed a carrier strike group last month to the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) corridor — and again this week. The goal is to corner Russian tankers in the Baltic and the Arctic before they are even able to leave."

Trump vollendet damit ein jahrzehntelanges Projekt:

"These plans are not exclusively Trump’s, nor were they cobbled together overnight. They are the fruits of the Bush administration and neoconservatives like Dick Cheney.

In 2001, while serving as Vice President, Cheney held 40 secret meetings with energy giants to author America’s strategy for the 21st century. The White House fought all the way to the Supreme Court to try and keep these meetings secret. If you’re picturing something like a shady gathering of executives, you’re not too far off: the heads of literally every major oil company were in the room with Cheney and his aides.

The blueprint born from those secret meetings was a strategic document called the National Energy Policy (NEP). Even 25 years ago, the White House knew that capturing Venezuela’s oil reserves was key to “diversifying” the US’ oil supply"

Man hätte echt Ende letzten Jahres Chevron-Aktien kaufen sollen. Die profitieren nicht nur massiv von der feindlichen Übernahme in Venezuela, sondern beuten auch das Gasfeld vor der Küste von Israel/Palästina aus:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/17/middleeast/israel-gas-deal-egypt-latam-intl

De-Dollarisierung sieht anders aus:

"Another unprecedented record was set in March when SWIFT transactions in US Dollars hit a record 51.1%, up from 49.25% in February. This confirms that the world is being physically forced back into the dollar to pay for the only energy left on the market."

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

Ach nee:

"A case in point is the curious fate of Qatar. ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy — who are partners in the Ras Laffan refinery that was crippled in March — clearly knew when to pull their chips from the Middle East and move them to the US. On April 22, they celebrated their first LNG shipment from Golden Pass, Texas, where Qatar hold a majority 70% stake. Safe to say, at these wartime prices they’ll be making back everything they lost in the Gulf several times over, and all while operating safely inside the US economic circuit."

https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery

Da wird es jetzt spannend:

"Purely from a game theory perspective, Iran, Russia, and China have a handful of strategic moves left on the board:

Develop alternative fuel sources that cannot be physically pirated or sabotaged.

Attempt to neutralize the US Navy in their respective theaters (though, as we’ve seen, the blockade is now global).

Give the Pirate State a taste of their own medicine — namely their refineries and tankers.

In the cold math of game theory, the last option is the most effective move — but also the most likely to start World War III. We take it for granted that hostile action against the US mainland is an automatic red line. This strikes at the root of a profound strategic asymmetry: how is it that Washington can burn refineries and target heads of state without the same fear of reprisal?"

Nun haben ja in Texas auch Raffinerien gebrannt. Das werden wohl kaum die Amis selber gewesen sein!?

No1 deutet das allerdings anders, und er hat auch andere Daten:

"So the actual picture Medhurst is painting: a fading anchor (oil-and-dollar) being half-replaced by a structurally narrower one (gas-and-dollar), sitting on top of a settlement currency that’s slowly losing the trust required to function as one in the first place.

That’s a regression on two axes at the same time. Not a strategic plan.

The successor isn’t oil-and-dollar. It sure as ain’t a gas-and-dollar. By elimination of every other alternative, it will come back to gold."

https://no01.substack.com/p/the-petrogas-dollar

Ach daher weht der Wind:

"In the actual world, the UAE quit OPEC effective May 1 after threatening yuan-denominated oil sales. Saudi Arabia gave 12 million of its citizens access to China’s CIPS payment network the day after that."

https://no01.substack.com/p/the-petrogas-dollar

Tatsache:

https://fortune.com/2026/04/20/uae-central-bank-dollar-lifeline-fed-treasury-currency-swap-chinese-yuan-iran-war/

Sieh mal an, Saudi-Arabien verkauft seit 2018 mehr Öl an China als an die USA, inzwischen viermal so viel:

https://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/ID-PROD/PROD0000000000622374/Petropolitics.report

Ryan Perkins hält dagegen:

"The UAE has over $2 trillion in sovereign investment assets and does not, by its own account, require external financial backing. What a swap line provides is not a bailout but admission to an elite tier of dollar-system membership—and a mechanism to ensure that even wealthy Gulf states do not begin, under sustained energy market pressure, to conduct oil transactions in yuan. Emirati officials reportedly warned that without dollar liquidity access, the country might need to consider alternative currencies for oil sales. The swap line forecloses that possibility."

https://ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/petroyuan-trap-update-fortifying?r=1issbh&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

Er führt weiter aus:

"The swap line expansion adds a fourth dimension to our framework. The original three stages—kinetic squeeze, financial mirage, currency ambush—operate on the target. The swap line architecture operates on everyone else. It is the containment mechanism that isolates China’s reserve drain within a reinforced dollar perimeter, ensuring that the crisis engineered in the energy and currency markets does not spill over to challenge dollar hegemony. Instead, it structurally reinforces it."

Bei CNN klingt es nicht gerade rosig für die US-Ölindustrie:

"Some US oil companies may look beyond the current market volatility and refining shortage because many of America’s shale wells are starting to run out of “tier 1” oil – the easiest and most lucrative oil to drill.
KPMG estimates that in 2027, America could hit “peak shale” oil production from the fracking boom over the past couple decades.
“We’re running out of top-tier inventory,” said Angie Gildea, KPMG’s global head of oil and gas. “Barring new technology, you need to be able to find new crude somewhere else.”"

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/04/business/drilling-more-oil

Das war zu erwarten:

https://www.semafor.com/article/05/04/2026/republicans-draft-iran-war-authorization

Hier haben wir allerdings einen anderen Datenpunkt zur De-Dollarisierung:

"The collaboration reflects a broader push by Bank Indonesia to promote local currency transactions and reduce reliance on global reserve currencies in cross-border payments, particularly the US dollar."

https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/indonesia-china-launch-cross-border-qris-payment-to-boost-regional-financial-cooperation

Es ist echt verwirrend, was geopolitisch gerade abgeht.

Auf jeden Fall laufen da große Machtspiele hinter den Kulissen...

Wenn Sie denken, dass der heilige ChatGPT ausschließlich für Sie geschaffen wurde, dann liegen Sie weit daneben.

Die US-Behörden nutzen aktiv Dialoge mit Chat-Bots als Beweismittel in Strafsachen. Experten behaupten, dass diese Art von elektronischen Beweisen die Motive, Handlungen und den psychologischen Zustand einer Person aufdecken kann.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/02/us/chatgpt-ai-privacy-crime