Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran War Updates
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 US-Israeli strikes on Iran could trigger a global famine
The timing of the US-Israeli attack on Iran “literally could not be worse” for the fertilizer industry, StoneX Group brokerage VP Josh Linville told Bloomberg, alluding to the imminent start of the Northern Hemisphere’s growing season, and problems shortages of the key farming ingredient could cause.
Here’s what’s at stake if US-Israeli aggression continues:
🌏 1/3+ of the world’s Sulphur and ammonia-based fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, now blocked amid the Iran strikes’ escalation into a regional war
🌏 ~5% more pass through the Red Sea, including Russian, Belarusian and European fertilizers heading to Asia, and Jordanian, Egyptian and Israeli potash, nitrogen and phosphates shipped to world markets
🌏 Iran, a global top ten producer of urea – a high-nutrient fertilizer variety, and major exporter of anhydrous ammonia (4.5M and 800k tons, respectively) has been forced to halt its own exports.
🌏 Egypt and Jordan, which depend on imported energy to produce their fertilizers, face skyrocketing prices
🌏 If Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are out of bounds, what remains of exports will need to be shipped around the Cape of Good Hope, arriving weeks later, while costs surge thanks to hiked shipping costs and market speculation (urea prices have already skyrocketed from $470-$531 in four days, per Trading Economics)
What does less fertilizers mean?
🌏 Lower yields of key staple crops (corn, wheat, rice, etc.), carbohydrates critical to diets in many developing countries, and used heavily to feed animals (livestock, farmed fish)
🌏 Higher food prices
🌏 High logistical costs and the complex chemical nature of different fertilizer varieties makes the commodity a just-in-time (JIT) piece of farming supply chains. ‘Strategic fertilizer reserves’ are rare and expensive
Who’s the most vulnerable?
🇮🇳 India, which imports urea heavily from Gulf nations, and relies on Qatari LNG for domestic plants
🇧🇷 Brazil, which gets as much as 1/3 of its fertilizers from Oman and Qatar
🇹🇷 Turkey, which relies on Iranian fertilizers
🌍 An array of other nations, from South Africa, Ethiopia and Niger to Thailand and Bangladesh
👍 US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
The timing of the US-Israeli attack on Iran “literally could not be worse” for the fertilizer industry, StoneX Group brokerage VP Josh Linville told Bloomberg, alluding to the imminent start of the Northern Hemisphere’s growing season, and problems shortages of the key farming ingredient could cause.
Here’s what’s at stake if US-Israeli aggression continues:
What does less fertilizers mean?
Who’s the most vulnerable?
🇮🇳 India, which imports urea heavily from Gulf nations, and relies on Qatari LNG for domestic plants
🇧🇷 Brazil, which gets as much as 1/3 of its fertilizers from Oman and Qatar
🇹🇷 Turkey, which relies on Iranian fertilizers
🌍 An array of other nations, from South Africa, Ethiopia and Niger to Thailand and Bangladesh
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Evolutionäre Zelle
Sind die wirklich so doof, sich vor den Karren der Epstein-Koalition spannen zu lassen & als deren Kanonenfutter in den Iran zu gehen? https://deutsch.anf-news.com/kurdistan/koalition-rojhilats-regime-steht-vor-zusammenbruch-kurdistan-muss-vorbereitet-sein…
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇷 Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Friday Imam of Tehran and senior member of the Assembly of Experts:
'Leadership candidates have been identified and we are close to selecting the new leader.
The new leader will be chosen at the earliest opportunity, but the current situation is wartime so we are taking all precautions.'
@Middle_East_Spectator
'Leadership candidates have been identified and we are close to selecting the new leader.
The new leader will be chosen at the earliest opportunity, but the current situation is wartime so we are taking all precautions.'
@Middle_East_Spectator
Weisse Bescheid:
"The attack was carried out from the Libyan coast using Ukrainian unmanned boats, the ministry added."
https://tass.com/emergencies/2096061
"The attack was carried out from the Libyan coast using Ukrainian unmanned boats, the ministry added."
https://tass.com/emergencies/2096061
TASS
Russian gas carrier attacked in Mediterranean Sea by Ukrainian unmanned boats
All 30 crew members were rescued
Intel Slava
Französische Rafale-Jets schützen jetzt schon den Luftraum der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate:
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260303-france-deploys-fighter-jets-over-uae-to-protect-its-military-bases
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260303-france-deploys-fighter-jets-over-uae-to-protect-its-military-bases
France 24
France deploys fighter jets over UAE to protect its military bases
France has deployed Rafale jets over the United Arab Emirates to protect its bases after a drone hit a French facility, Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said. The announcement comes as regional tensions…
Der Iran-Krieg ist de facto ein Krieg um Wasser:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/world-water-day-mapping-water-stress-across-the-middle-east
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/world-water-day-mapping-water-stress-across-the-middle-east
Al Jazeera
World Water Day: Mapping water stress across the Middle East
Seven out of the 10 most water-stressed nations are in the Middle East and North Africa.
Evolutionäre Zelle
Der Iran-Krieg ist de facto ein Krieg um Wasser: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/world-water-day-mapping-water-stress-across-the-middle-east
Ich hab mir gerade das brandneue Video des YouTube-Chinesen angeschaut, wo er u.a. das Wasserthema anspricht:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0
Dass er da fast kein Wort über Israel verloren hat, wundert mich. Da kommt bestimmt später noch was von ihm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0
Dass er da fast kein Wort über Israel verloren hat, wundert mich. Da kommt bestimmt später noch was von ihm.
YouTube
Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War
In this Tuesday, March 3, 2026 lecture, Professor Jiang analyzes the US-Iran War.
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
—❗️🇮🇷/🇹🇷/🔹 BREAKING: 'Iran launched a ballistic missile at a NATO base in Turkey' – Turkish Ministry of Defense
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime | Iran War Updates
🇵🇰🇦🇫 🇮🇷 Choke point: How the Pakistan-Taliban war threatens Iran’s China corridor
Even as Iran defends itself from US and Israeli strikes in the west, it must also contend with a troubling conflict on its eastern doorstep.
The unfolding military confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been largely eclipsed by the dramatic events in Iran.
However, the strategic connection between these two conflicts is clear and compelling.
Geography provides the crucial link between the strikes on Iran and this new conflict on its eastern flank.
Pakistan’s closest ally, China, is also a key partner to Tehran.
The two nations cooperate extensively in the energy and defense sectors, with China standing as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, a major investor, and a critical supplier of technology.
Some unconfirmed reports also indicate that Iran is looking to China to boost its air defense and anti-ship capabilities.
Crucially, the primary overland corridor through which Chinese aid and support flows to Iran traverses Pakistani territory, running along its volatile border with Afghanistan.
This artery is vital for sustaining the partnership between Beijing and Tehran.
👍 US-Israel-Iran war | @geopolitics_prime
Even as Iran defends itself from US and Israeli strikes in the west, it must also contend with a troubling conflict on its eastern doorstep.
The unfolding military confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been largely eclipsed by the dramatic events in Iran.
However, the strategic connection between these two conflicts is clear and compelling.
Geography provides the crucial link between the strikes on Iran and this new conflict on its eastern flank.
Pakistan’s closest ally, China, is also a key partner to Tehran.
The two nations cooperate extensively in the energy and defense sectors, with China standing as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, a major investor, and a critical supplier of technology.
Some unconfirmed reports also indicate that Iran is looking to China to boost its air defense and anti-ship capabilities.
Crucially, the primary overland corridor through which Chinese aid and support flows to Iran traverses Pakistani territory, running along its volatile border with Afghanistan.
This artery is vital for sustaining the partnership between Beijing and Tehran.
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Forwarded from Enemy Watch — Official
‼️ | Based on the documented history of Shiism over the past 1,200 years, there is no precedent for a high-ranking Wali al-Faqih and marja’ taqlid to be martyred on the battlefield during a foreign enemy’s invasion of the country’s soil. By this clear criterion, Imam Khamenei is the first marja’ taqlid and Wali al-Faqih to be martyred in such circumstances, not on the margins of power, but in the midst of war and defense.
Currently, the election and announcement of the new leadership will take place at the appropriate time, for example, after about a month, as the interim council is eligible to carry out the duties of leadership. However, there are many important issues that must be understood in this context. The Islamic world and the Shia community have been led and managed under the guidance of Imam Khamenei (r).
The role of Wali al-Faqih (Guardian Jurist; Wali al-Amr al-Muslimeen) is to implement leadership over all Muslims. In Shia doctrine, the position of Wali al-Amr cannot remain vacant for long, as it concerns the affairs (umur) of the entire Muslim community, including both social and political matters. Therefore, any retreat, negotiation, or limitation in war before achieving victory or martyrdom is considered impossible according to Shia Islamic law.
A retreat without taking revenge would constitute a major weakness and failure to uphold the cause of Wilayah, which continues under the guidance of a fallible leader until, or unless, the 12th Imam, Imam Mahdi (A), reappears. The role of Wali al-Faqih was expanded and clarified under the leadership of the martyred Imam, and its significance is now clear to all. This role fulfills the Qur’anic requirement for a leader of the Ummah, a view agreed upon by both Shia and Sunni fuqaha.
That is why the Assembly of Experts, without delay, will choose the new leader. This ensures the highest social and spiritual strength for millions of Shias across the world and for Muslims in general. Even if the election takes place on the battlefield and the leader attains martyrdom the following day, the duty of leadership remains.
This is consistent with the Shia school of Imamate, where leadership transfers to the next Imam while the flames of Karbala continue to burn. The next leader, the upcoming Sayyid, will assume the role during one of the most decisive conflicts in history. He will carry the greatest responsibility on Earth: to advance the movement of the Islamic Revolution, preserve the Islamic Republic, uphold the Shia school of thought, and lead the global resistance, as his predecessors did.
The time is extremely crucial. The situation cannot be compared to anything in the past. Every decision, every action, and every stand taken in the coming days will shape the fate of the Islamic Ummah and the Shia community. Its significance cannot be fully expressed in words.
The world is now witnessing a historic moment. Those who lead must do so with courage, wisdom, and steadfast faith, ensuring that the legacy of Imam Khamenei continues and the objectives of the Islamic Revolution are fulfilled.
🔹@enemywatch
+
Currently, the election and announcement of the new leadership will take place at the appropriate time, for example, after about a month, as the interim council is eligible to carry out the duties of leadership. However, there are many important issues that must be understood in this context. The Islamic world and the Shia community have been led and managed under the guidance of Imam Khamenei (r).
The role of Wali al-Faqih (Guardian Jurist; Wali al-Amr al-Muslimeen) is to implement leadership over all Muslims. In Shia doctrine, the position of Wali al-Amr cannot remain vacant for long, as it concerns the affairs (umur) of the entire Muslim community, including both social and political matters. Therefore, any retreat, negotiation, or limitation in war before achieving victory or martyrdom is considered impossible according to Shia Islamic law.
A retreat without taking revenge would constitute a major weakness and failure to uphold the cause of Wilayah, which continues under the guidance of a fallible leader until, or unless, the 12th Imam, Imam Mahdi (A), reappears. The role of Wali al-Faqih was expanded and clarified under the leadership of the martyred Imam, and its significance is now clear to all. This role fulfills the Qur’anic requirement for a leader of the Ummah, a view agreed upon by both Shia and Sunni fuqaha.
That is why the Assembly of Experts, without delay, will choose the new leader. This ensures the highest social and spiritual strength for millions of Shias across the world and for Muslims in general. Even if the election takes place on the battlefield and the leader attains martyrdom the following day, the duty of leadership remains.
This is consistent with the Shia school of Imamate, where leadership transfers to the next Imam while the flames of Karbala continue to burn. The next leader, the upcoming Sayyid, will assume the role during one of the most decisive conflicts in history. He will carry the greatest responsibility on Earth: to advance the movement of the Islamic Revolution, preserve the Islamic Republic, uphold the Shia school of thought, and lead the global resistance, as his predecessors did.
The time is extremely crucial. The situation cannot be compared to anything in the past. Every decision, every action, and every stand taken in the coming days will shape the fate of the Islamic Ummah and the Shia community. Its significance cannot be fully expressed in words.
The world is now witnessing a historic moment. Those who lead must do so with courage, wisdom, and steadfast faith, ensuring that the legacy of Imam Khamenei continues and the objectives of the Islamic Revolution are fulfilled.
🔹@enemywatch
+
Geopolitics Prime | Iran War Updates
"“In the first three days of the war, Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel,” he told Al Jazeera. “To put that into context, during the 12-day war, they launched around 500, each requiring that Israel counter by launching an interceptor rocket. That’s probably more than Israel has the capacity to counter, so, without US help, it would probably have lost control of its airspace by now.”
Israel has three different air defence systems: the Iron Dome, for short-range rockets and artillery; David’s Sling, to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles; and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed to intercept ballistic missiles
The Israelis do not disclose the number of interceptors they have in stock, but Israel began to run low on interceptor stocks during the 12-day war, indicating that it will become more difficult to maintain a high level of interceptions if the war continues for a lengthy period. This would lead to a rationing of interceptors and a focus on defending military and political targets, potentially leading to more civilian casualties."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/how-long-can-israel-sustain-a-military-conflict-with-iran
Israel has three different air defence systems: the Iron Dome, for short-range rockets and artillery; David’s Sling, to counter medium-range rockets and cruise missiles; and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed to intercept ballistic missiles
The Israelis do not disclose the number of interceptors they have in stock, but Israel began to run low on interceptor stocks during the 12-day war, indicating that it will become more difficult to maintain a high level of interceptions if the war continues for a lengthy period. This would lead to a rationing of interceptors and a focus on defending military and political targets, potentially leading to more civilian casualties."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/how-long-can-israel-sustain-a-military-conflict-with-iran
Al Jazeera
How long can Israel sustain a military conflict with Iran?
Public support for Israel's war effort contrasts with doubts over its long-term military and economic sustainability.
Enemy Watch — Official
‼️ | Based on the documented history of Shiism over the past 1,200 years, there is no precedent for a high-ranking Wali al-Faqih and marja’ taqlid to be martyred on the battlefield during a foreign enemy’s invasion of the country’s soil. By this clear criterion…
Vorsichtshalber noch mal zur Erklärung, warum ich so was hier teile: ich bin nicht etwa zum Islam konvertiert, mir geht es einfach darum, dass wir mitbekommen, womit wir es hier zu tun haben.
Evolutionäre Zelle
Netanjahu hat nach dem 7. Oktober 2023 die Palästinenser mit den Amalekitern aus dem Alten Testament verglichen. Das steht im 1. Buch Samuel, 15 über die Amalekiter: "So zieh nun hin und schlag Amalek. Und vollstreckt den Bann an allem, was es hat; verschone…
Die Perser sind jetzt Netanjahus neue Amalekiter:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/why-are-the-us-and-israel-framing-the-ongoing-conflict-as-a-religious-war
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/why-are-the-us-and-israel-framing-the-ongoing-conflict-as-a-religious-war
Al Jazeera
Why are the US and Israel framing the ongoing conflict as a religious war?
US troops reportedly told the war in Iran is intended to bring about biblical end times, Armageddon.
Evolutionäre Zelle
Zur Entspannung De La beim Tiny Desk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AVYDHTOixU
YouTube
Gilberto Gil, Flor e Bento : Tiny Desk Brasil
LORENA CALABRIA || No pequeno espaço do Tiny Desk Brasil, Gilberto Gil parece em casa. E, de certa forma, está. Sentado ao lado dos netos Bento e Flor, a cena reproduz algo que poderia acontecer em uma tarde de domingo qualquer, na sala de estar da família.…
Diese Weltpremiere zeigt, dass es mit der US-israelischen Lufthoheit über den Iran noch nicht so weit her ist wie behauptet:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-world-1st-israeli-f-35-shoots-down-iranian-jet-in-air-to-air-combat-over-tehran/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-world-1st-israeli-f-35-shoots-down-iranian-jet-in-air-to-air-combat-over-tehran/
The Times of Israel
In world 1st, Israeli F-35 shoots down Iranian jet in air-to-air combat over Tehran
Incident also 1st time in some 40 years that Israeli Air Force engaged in air-to-air combat with manned aircraft; IAF expected to mark jet with decal 'victory mark' to denote achievement
Evolutionäre Zelle
Diese Weltpremiere zeigt, dass es mit der US-israelischen Lufthoheit über den Iran noch nicht so weit her ist wie behauptet: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-world-1st-israeli-f-35-shoots-down-iranian-jet-in-air-to-air-combat-over-tehran/
Und das war das erste Mal seit dem 2. Weltkrieg, dass ein US-U-Boot ein anderes Schiff versenkt hat:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-warship-sinks-after-apparent-submarine-attack-near-sri-lanka-101-said-missing/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-warship-sinks-after-apparent-submarine-attack-near-sri-lanka-101-said-missing/
The Times of Israel
‘Quiet Death’: US sub fires torpedo to sink Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, in first since WWII
101 people missing, one dead and 78 injured, Sri Lankan sources say, after downing of ship armed with missiles, torpedoes; US military has said it aims to sink Iran's 'entire navy'
Derweil in den Emiraten:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-partially-evacuates-uae-embassy-staff-after-2-attempted-iranian-terror-attacks-official/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-partially-evacuates-uae-embassy-staff-after-2-attempted-iranian-terror-attacks-official/
The Times of Israel
Israel partially evacuates UAE embassy staff after 2 attempted Iranian terror attacks — official
Foreign Ministry says officials working to determine 'safest paths of return' for Israelis in the Gulf state, which pushes back on report it's planning to join strikes on Iran