📊 DAX UPDATE – 25,000 Still Out of Reach

🇩🇪 The DAX remains stuck below the key 25,000 psychological level.
📉 Wednesday close: 24,856 (-0.53%)
Despite recent volatility, sentiment appears more stable.

🇺🇸 US Labor Data Complicates the Picture
📊 NFP: 130K vs 70K expected
→ Strong jobs data reduces hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts
→ Markets fear a more cautious rate path for 2026

⚖️ Relative Strength in Focus
Despite rate-cut concerns, the DAX is holding firm — a sign of underlying resilience.

🔥 Key Event Ahead – Friday 14:30 CET
🇺🇸 US CPI (Inflation)
Core CPI expected: 0.3% MoM
→ Potential volatility trigger for equities, USD & yields

📉 Technical View
• Key support: 24,710
• Break above 25,000 remains the main upside target
• Likely range-bound until inflation data

🛑 Watch closely: DAX | US CPI | USD | Bond yields

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📅 MARKET UPDATE – 13 February 2026
Inflation, Central Banks & Record Highs in Focus

⚠️ Central bank narratives remain a key market driver
• Markets are digesting mixed signals on inflation and monetary policy around the world.

🇬🇧 UK inflation & rates spotlight
• Underlying UK inflation running near ~2.5%, above the Bank of England’s 2% target — keeping rate expectations cautious.

🇪🇺 Eurozone monetary outlook
• The ECB is expected to hold rates steady through at least the end of 2026 amid slowing price growth and resilient activity — extending the longest unchanged rate period since the negative-rate era.

📊 Market Themes Today:
• FX: Mixed flows as central bank divergence impacts major pairs — GBP and EUR watched closely.
• Commodities: Gold & metals remain sensitive to inflation expectations and macro shifts.
• Equities: Some profit-taking seen near recent highs as traders assess policy risks.

📌 Quick Take:
• Inflation & central banks continue to shape market pricing
• BoE + ECB policy signals keep risk sentiment cautious
• Markets eye macro data for further direction

👉 Watch closely: Inflation prints | Rate guidance | FX & commodities

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📊 EARNINGS WATCH – WALMART (WMT)

🛒 Walmart Q4 FY26 in focus
📅 Earnings: 19 February

📈 Strong recent momentum
• Adjusted EPS: $0.62 vs $0.60 expected
• Revenue: $179.5B vs $177.4B expected
• Net income: $6.14B (up from $4.58B YoY)
• US comparable sales: +4.5% (ex-fuel)
• Global e-commerce: +27%

💡 Key drivers
• Market share gains across income groups
• Strong traction among higher-income shoppers
• Some temporary softness from SNAP disruptions

🔍 What traders will watch (Feb 19):
• Expected EPS: $0.73
• Expected revenue: $188.43B
• Comparable sales & margin stability amid tariffs
• FY guidance — can momentum push shares to new highs?

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Consumer resilience vs margin pressure
📊 Guidance likely the main catalyst
🛑 Expect stock-specific volatility post-earnings

👉 Watch closely: WMT | Retail sector | US consumer trend

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📊 EARNINGS WATCH – DANONE

🥛 Danone: Can China stay the growth engine?

📈 Strong Q3 performance
• Like-for-like sales: +4.8% (vs 4.3% expected)
• Revenue: €6.88B
• China, North Asia & Oceania: +13.8% growth
→ Driven by infant formula, medical nutrition & Mizone water

🌍 Regional snapshot
• 🇪🇺 Europe: +2.6% (premium & high-protein dairy, Evian)
• 🇺🇸 North America: +1.5% (protein strength offsets creamer weakness)

🔍 What investors will watch next:
• Can China continue to offset slower U.S. growth?
• Medical nutrition demand trends
• Pricing power in Europe
• Competitive pressure in North America

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Asia momentum remains key catalyst
📊 Outperforming peers like Nestlé & Unilever
🛑 Sustained China growth critical for further upside

👉 Watch closely: BN | Consumer staples | China demand trends

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📊 EARNINGS WATCH – HOME DEPOT (HD)

🏠 Home Depot: Can housing stabilize?
📅 Earnings: 24 February

📉 Recent pressure
• Q3 EPS: $3.74 vs $3.84 expected
• Revenue: $41.35B (slightly above forecasts)
• FY EPS seen -5% YoY (vs prior -2%)
• Sales growth ~+3%, comps only slightly positive

⚠️ Key challenges
• Weak housing turnover
• High interest rates
• Limited storm activity (lower repair demand)

💡 Bright spot:
• Online sales +11% YoY
• Big-ticket transactions +2.3%, but large renovation projects remain soft

🔍 What traders will watch (Feb 24):
• Expected EPS: $2.53
• Expected revenue: $38.03B
• Housing market outlook for 2026
• Demand recovery & discretionary spending trends

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Elevated rates weigh on housing activity
📊 Guidance & housing commentary likely key catalysts
🛑 Expect stock-specific volatility post-earnings

👉 Watch closely: HD | Housing market | US consumer trends

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📊 Monday Market Matters: Simple Risk Management
🗓️ Date: 23 February 2026
🕒 Time: 14:00 – 15:00

Join Paul Wallace, a seasoned full-time trader with 29+ years of experience. In this practical webinar, Paul will teach you how to implement simple yet effective risk management techniques — a core skill for lasting success in the markets.

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📅 IMPORTANT EVENTS TODAY – Wednesday | 04 March 2026

⚠️ Markets focus on tariffs, Fed policy debate & global PMI signals

🏛 Trade & Tariffs
• New global tariffs continue to influence trade flows and inflation expectations.
• Export growth in Asia remained strong, with advanced Asian exports +15.9% and China exports +8.5%, though growth may slow as tariffs weigh on global trade.

🏦 Federal Reserve Debate
• Markets remain divided on the timing of future rate cuts, as policymakers weigh persistent inflation against slowing growth signals.

🌍 Global PMI Data in Focus
• PMI releases across major economies provide key insight into manufacturing and services momentum.
• Recent data suggests diverging growth trends between regions, keeping investors cautious.

📊 Market Moves This Week:
• FX: AUD/USD and EUR/JPY +1%+, AUD/JPY +1.6%, ZAR/JPY +2.3%
• USD/ZAR: −1.5%

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Tariffs + Fed rate outlook remain key market drivers
📉 PMI data shaping global growth expectations
🛑 Volatility possible across FX, commodities & equities

👉 Watch closely: USD | Global PMI data | Central bank signals

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📊 OIL MARKET ALERT – Brent Above $106

🛢 Brent crude trades above $106 as tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to escalate.

⚠️ Supply concerns rising
• The ongoing conflict in the Gulf has now entered its second week.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil exports, is effectively closed due to security risks.
• The region accounts for roughly 25% of global oil production.

📈 Market impact
• Traders are pricing in potential supply disruptions.
• The longer the conflict continues without a ceasefire, the higher the risk of further price spikes.

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Geopolitical tensions driving oil higher
📊 Energy markets remain highly sensitive to supply risks
🛑 Volatility likely across oil, inflation expectations & energy stocks

👉 Watch closely: Brent | Energy sector | Global supply routes

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📊 GOLD MARKET UPDATE

🥇 Gold edges higher but stays below $5,200

⚠️ Despite the ongoing conflict in Iran and rising geopolitical risks, gold has struggled to gain strong momentum since the start of the war.

💵 Key market drivers:
• Higher energy prices are fueling inflation concerns
• Reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts
• Stronger USD and rising US Treasury yields weigh on non-yielding gold

📉 Additional pressure:
• Recent equity market losses triggered margin calls, forcing some investors to sell gold.

📈 Risk sentiment improving
• Comments from the US President hinting at a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict boosted equities as investors buy the dip.

📌 What traders are watching:
• Developments in the Iran conflict
• Upcoming US inflation data later this week

🛑 Quick Take:
Gold remains supported by geopolitics but capped by USD strength, yields, and improving risk appetite.

👉 Watch closely: Gold | USD | Treasury yields | US inflation data

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📊 OIL MARKET UPDATE – Brent Rebounds

🛢 Brent crude ticks higher, recovering losses as Gulf tensions remain elevated.

⚠️ Geopolitical uncertainty persists
• Ongoing conflict linked to the Strait of Hormuz
• Region accounts for nearly 20% of global oil supply
• No clear path yet toward normalisation of energy flows

💡 What’s supporting prices:
• Hopes of a near-term resolution after signals from the US administration
• Potential IEA strategic reserve releases to ease supply concerns
• Market optimism despite limited international response

📈 Price outlook
• Brent likely to remain supported above $100
• Further upside possible if tensions persist

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ Supply risks remain the dominant driver
📊 Oil markets highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines
🛑 Expect continued volatility in energy prices

👉 Watch closely: Brent | Middle East developments | Global supply flows

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📊 EARNINGS WATCH – MICRON (MU)

💾 Micron Technology: Can AI memory demand sustain the rally?
📅 Earnings: 18 March

📈 Strong recent performance
• EPS: $4.78 vs $3.95 expected
• Revenue: $13.64B vs $12.84B expected
• Net income: $5.24B
• Cloud memory revenue: $5.28B (doubled YoY)

🤖 AI boom driving growth
→ Surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in data centers & AI infrastructure

🚀 Strong guidance
• Revenue: ~$18.7B
• EPS: ~$8.42 (well above expectations)

🔍 What traders will watch (Mar 18):
• Expected EPS: $8.61
• Expected revenue: ~$19.14B
• AI-driven memory demand & pricing power
• Supply constraints supporting margins

📌 Quick Take:
⚠️ AI memory demand remains key catalyst
📊 Strong guidance fuels bullish sentiment
🛑 Volatility likely around earnings

👉 Watch closely: MU | AI sector | Semiconductor stocks

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📊 Monday Market Matters: Turnaround Your Trading
🗓️ Date: 23 March 2026
🕒 Time: 14:00 – 15:00

Join Paul Wallace, a seasoned full-time trader with 29+ years of experience. In this session, Paul will show you how to reset and improve your trading performance after a challenging period, with practical insights you can apply immediately.

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🛢️ Brent Back Above $100 as Iran Tensions Linger

Brent crude edged higher in early Tuesday trading, reclaiming the $100 level despite recent volatility.

📉 Markets found temporary relief after a shift in the US stance on Iran, with oil dropping over 10% and equities rebounding.

⚠️ However, risks remain elevated:
• Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed
• Regional energy infrastructure damage persists
• Ongoing threat of Iranian retaliation

🤝 Talks between the sides are underway, but no clear progress yet.

📊 Outlook: Sustained moves below $100 look unlikely without real diplomatic breakthroughs, while any escalation could quickly drive prices higher again.

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📈 Gold Rebounds: Safe-Haven Demand Returns
🗓️ Date: 31 March 2026

Gold prices climbed to a 10-day high in early European trading, recovering from last week’s multi-month low. After stabilising around the $4,500 level, buyers stepped back in, seeing recent dips as an opportunity.

🛡️ Why gold is rising:

Ongoing geopolitical & economic uncertainty
Renewed safe-haven demand
Attractive levels after recent correction

⚖️ What’s limiting the upside:

Hawkish central bank expectations
Rising bond yields
Stronger US dollar increasing holding costs

📊 Bottom line:
Gold is regaining strength, but macro pressures continue to cap further gains.

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📉 Brent Oil Pulls Back — But Risks Remain Elevated
🗓️ Date: 1 April 2026

Brent crude slipped in early Wednesday trading, hovering just above $100, as markets reacted to easing geopolitical tensions.

🟢 What’s driving the drop:

US signals possible de-escalation with Iran
Weaker US dollar
Improved risk appetite across markets

📈 Stocks and major currencies gained as traders turned more optimistic.

⚠️ But caution remains:

Strait of Hormuz still largely closed
Oil & gas supply disruptions persist
Ongoing bottlenecks and reduced production capacity

📊 Bottom line:
The current optimism may prove temporary. Structural supply risks remain, and a shift back to realism could push oil prices higher again.

👉 Stay alert — volatility in energy markets is far from over.

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📊 Key Highlights: March NFP Report

📅 Main focus: March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — critical for short-term market direction (even with US markets closed for Good Friday)
📉 Labor market is cooling:
Job openings fell more than expected (Feb)
Hiring at lowest level in ~6 years
⚠️ February turning point:
Jobs: -92K (vs. +130K in January)
Unemployment: 4.4%
→ Clear shift toward weaker labor conditions
🔍 March expectations:
Jobs: ~50K (slow growth)
Unemployment: 4.5% (rising trend)
🏦 Market implication:
Weak data could push the Fed toward a more cautious stance
Especially if job weakness outweighs wage strength

👉 Bottom line:
The labor market is losing momentum — and this NFP report could be a key trigger for market volatility and Fed expectations.

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📊 Travel vs Consumer: Key Earnings in Focus
🗓️ Date: 8 April 2026

This week, earnings from Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands will offer key insights into global travel demand vs. U.S. consumer strength.

✈️ Delta Air Lines: Oil Shock vs Pricing Power

EPS (Q4): $1.55 (beat)
Revenue: $14.61B (slight miss)
Net income: +45% YoY

Strong premium demand has supported margins — but rising fuel costs and geopolitical risks now challenge the outlook.

🔍 What to watch:

Fuel cost impact
Pricing power vs demand
Capacity discipline

🍺 Constellation Brands: Consumer Stress Test

EPS: $3.06 (beat)
Revenue: $2.22B (-10% YoY)
Beer sales: -1% (improving trend)

Core brands remain resilient, but macro pressure and weaker demand continue to weigh.

🔍 What to watch:

Beer segment momentum
Consumer demand trends
Margin strength & guidance

📊 Bottom line:
These reports will test whether consumer demand and pricing power can withstand rising costs and macro pressure.

👉 Stay alert — earnings could set the tone for markets this week.

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📊 Gold Holds Steady Amid Rising Global Tensions
🗓️ Date: 7 April 2026

Gold prices edged higher in early European trading, hovering just below the $4,700 level, but remain broadly flat this month.

⚖️ What’s driving the market:

Ongoing geopolitical risks (US–Israel conflict with Iran)
Rising oil & gas prices fueling inflation fears
Expectations of tighter central bank policy

🛡️ Support for gold:

Safe-haven demand amid uncertainty

📉 Pressure on prices:

Stronger US dollar
Rising bond yields increasing holding costs

📊 Bottom line:
Gold is caught between geopolitical support and macro pressure, likely keeping prices in a narrow trading range for now.

👉 Stay alert — shifts in yields or geopolitics could break the range.

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📊 PepsiCo: Demand Test as Price Cuts Loom
🗓️ Date: 14 April 2026

PepsiCo delivered a strong quarter, beating expectations on both earnings and revenue — but underlying demand remains mixed.

📈 Key results:

EPS: $2.26 (beat)
Revenue: $29.34B (above forecasts)
Net income: $2.54B (vs. $1.52B YoY)

Growth was driven largely by pricing, not volume — signaling potential demand pressure.

⚠️ Underlying trends:

Food volumes: -2% globally
Beverages: +1%
Weak demand, especially in North America

🔍 What to watch next:

Impact of potential price cuts
Volume vs pricing balance
Margin resilience
Portfolio adjustments

📊 Q1 expectations:

EPS: ~$1.54
Revenue: ~$18.95B

📉 Bottom line:
PepsiCo faces a key test — can it restore demand without sacrificing margins?

👉 Stay alert — this could signal broader consumer weakness.

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📊 Gold Volatility: Gains Fade After 4-Week High
🗓️ Date: 15 April 2026

Gold prices hit a four-week high in early trading but later pulled back to just above $4,800, reflecting ongoing market volatility.

📈 What drove the recent rally:

Gold up +4.5% over two sessions
Weaker US dollar
Softer-than-feared US inflation data

💵 Dollar under pressure:
Cooling rate hike expectations have weighed on the greenback, supporting gold in the short term.

🌍 Geopolitical factor:

Hopes for a ceasefire and easing tensions in the Middle East
Potential normalization in the Strait of Hormuz

⚖️ What comes next:

Further USD weakness could boost gold
But escalation risks remain

📉 Key risk:
Renewed tensions could revive inflation fears, strengthen the dollar, and cap gold’s upside.

📊 Bottom line:
Gold remains caught between USD weakness and geopolitical uncertainty — keeping volatility elevated.

👉 Stay alert — headlines from the Middle East could drive the next move.

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