H1VS5 achieved

H1VS100 ahead

$4141-4169z achieved

$4185/4202 ahead

Reversal

$4141/4114

Question by traders:

Why broker charged $900 as swap charges when we were holding trades for only 15 hours.

Answer:

$988 profit booked on 4.0 lots

$900 charges: for holding trades on Wednesday night we have to pay interest of $75 per lot per day for three days, irrespective of the duration.

So 75*3*4= 900
$75/ lot/day SWAP
3 days: applicable on Wednesday
4 total lots active

So moral of the story:

Yes our analysis is apt! However swap charges make it less profitable hence it is always an ideal scenario to exit trades in NAP the same day/hour to avoid heavy swap charges!

XAUUSD

M3OVS5 ACHIEVED

XAUUSD

H1VS100

Achieved

$4141-4169-4191

All BUY positions closed.

Question:

(-) PCE data = lighter inflation

USD+
XAUUSD -

However, point to be noted
This data indicates less chances of rate hike + as per data rate hike was never observed near mid term elections.

Hence USD (-) XAUUSD +

THIS IS THE REASON, INSPITE OF strong data, we took buy positions, NAP was missed due to slippage however the direction of trades was perfect.

$4185-4169-4141
RT
$4141-4169-4191

Achieved.

Media and many analysts are mentioning weaker inflation = USD (-) and XAUUSD +

However those who are trading on the basis of their analysis lost money, because XAUUSD price shot up today, because the reaction to fundamentals might be faced with a delay however the correlations always win.

Weaker inflation data:

As compared to previous it is same, however as compared to forecast it is lesser.

Some analysts are confused, doesn't mean you should be too!

Weaker inflation = lesser chances of rate hike = USD (-) XAUUSD +

XAUUSD Correlations

I would read the correlation structure as:

SOFTER PCE → bullish Gold

STRONGER GDP/SPENDING → bearish counterforce

STRONGER ADP/PMI → bearish counterforce

Net result → mixed, with yields and DXY deciding the follow-through

Impact XAUUSD -

Kashkari’s Message: A Resilient US Economy Keeps the Fed’s Hawkish Bias Alive

By Yaipubi Chanu
YAI — Global Macro • XAU/USD Intelligence

I continue to see Federal Reserve communication as one of the most important inputs for understanding the next major move in US Treasury yields, the Dollar and ultimately XAU/USD.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has reinforced a relatively hawkish policy outlook. He said inflation remains too high at around 3%, while the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience through consumer spending and a robust labour market. More importantly, Kashkari questioned whether monetary policy is actually as restrictive as previously assumed, suggesting that the neutral interest rate may currently be higher.

Kashkari has pencilled in one additional rate increase in 2026 and another in 2027, although these projections represent his own current assessment rather than a predetermined Federal Reserve decision. He also stressed that the outlook will depend on how incoming economic data develops.

For Gold, I would translate this into a simple correlation chain:
Resilient US Economy → Fed stays restrictive → Treasury yields remain elevated → USD supported → XAU/USD faces pressure
However, the relationship is not mechanical. Softer inflation data can reduce expectations for an immediate hike even while long-term Treasury yields remain elevated.

That is why I prefer to track Fed expectations + US2Y + US10Y + US30Y + DXY together, rather than interpreting a single economic release in isolation. Recent market action has illustrated this divergence, with Gold facing pressure from elevated Treasury yields despite softer PCE inflation.

My focus remains: DATA → FED → YIELDS → DXY → XAU/USD.

— Yaipubi Chanu