Space weather: 12.08.2026, 12:32
No significant changes: auroras are not expected at mid-latitudes in the coming days. A small chance remains at high latitudes on August 14, when a solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole (+CH HSS) is expected to interact with the magnetosphere.
NOAA and IPG forecasts remain consistent: August 12 may have isolated periods of geomagnetic disturbance (weak residual CME effects), August 13 quiet, August 14 possibly active conditions and a minor G1 storm under +CH HSS. The usual discrepancy persists: NOAA sees only a 10% chance of M-class flares, while IPG allows some M-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. SIDC continues to describe only the earlier August 8 ICME, leaving the 12–14 August forecast unchanged.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
No significant changes: auroras are not expected at mid-latitudes in the coming days. A small chance remains at high latitudes on August 14, when a solar wind enhancement from a coronal hole (+CH HSS) is expected to interact with the magnetosphere.
NOAA and IPG forecasts remain consistent: August 12 may have isolated periods of geomagnetic disturbance (weak residual CME effects), August 13 quiet, August 14 possibly active conditions and a minor G1 storm under +CH HSS. The usual discrepancy persists: NOAA sees only a 10% chance of M-class flares, while IPG allows some M-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. SIDC continues to describe only the earlier August 8 ICME, leaving the 12–14 August forecast unchanged.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-13, 00:32
No auroras are expected at mid-latitudes in the coming days; a slight chance of high-latitude auroras remains on August 14–15, when solar wind from a coronal hole (+CH HSS) and a CIR are expected to interact with the magnetosphere.
Update: IPG has refined the August 13 forecast to mostly quiet with isolated periods of geomagnetic disturbance. NOAA expects quiet conditions on August 13, then unsettled to active levels on August 14–15 with a chance of minor G1 storming due to the CIR and +CH HSS. Forecasts are broadly consistent; the remaining discrepancy is the M-flare outlook: NOAA sees a slightly increased chance, while IPG allows isolated M-flares. SIDC still provides no new prediction, only referring to an earlier ICME, so it does not affect the current forecast. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
No auroras are expected at mid-latitudes in the coming days; a slight chance of high-latitude auroras remains on August 14–15, when solar wind from a coronal hole (+CH HSS) and a CIR are expected to interact with the magnetosphere.
Update: IPG has refined the August 13 forecast to mostly quiet with isolated periods of geomagnetic disturbance. NOAA expects quiet conditions on August 13, then unsettled to active levels on August 14–15 with a chance of minor G1 storming due to the CIR and +CH HSS. Forecasts are broadly consistent; the remaining discrepancy is the M-flare outlook: NOAA sees a slightly increased chance, while IPG allows isolated M-flares. SIDC still provides no new prediction, only referring to an earlier ICME, so it does not affect the current forecast. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 13.08.2026, 07:02
No mid-latitude auroras are expected in the coming days; a minor chance remains at high latitudes on 14–15 August from a CIR ahead of a +CH HSS interacting with the magnetosphere.
Updates compared with the previous report are minimal: NOAA still expects quiet conditions on 13 August, then unsettled to active levels on 14–15 August with a chance of G1 (minor) storming from the CIR/+CH HSS. IPG refined its forecast: quiet on 13 August with isolated unsettled periods and possibly unsettled on 14 August, without mentioning G1. The M-flare discrepancy persists: NOAA gives a slightly increased chance, IPG allows isolated M flares. SIDC provides no new forecast; its August 8 ICME report does not apply to the current situation. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
No mid-latitude auroras are expected in the coming days; a minor chance remains at high latitudes on 14–15 August from a CIR ahead of a +CH HSS interacting with the magnetosphere.
Updates compared with the previous report are minimal: NOAA still expects quiet conditions on 13 August, then unsettled to active levels on 14–15 August with a chance of G1 (minor) storming from the CIR/+CH HSS. IPG refined its forecast: quiet on 13 August with isolated unsettled periods and possibly unsettled on 14 August, without mentioning G1. The M-flare discrepancy persists: NOAA gives a slightly increased chance, IPG allows isolated M flares. SIDC provides no new forecast; its August 8 ICME report does not apply to the current situation. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-13, 07:44
Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions today, so aurora is unlikely tonight (13–14 Aug). Aurora chances increase from 14 to 15 Aug, particularly the nights of 14–15 and 15–16 Aug, when a CIR and a positive-polarity HSS are expected to interact with Earth's magnetosphere; NOAA SWPC gives a chance of minor G1 storming.
According to NOAA SWPC, solar wind should decline to background for most of 13 Aug, with CIR arrival late on 13 Aug or early on 14 Aug bringing unsettled to active levels and a G1 chance on 14–15 Aug. IPG's forecast for 14 Aug is only possible geomagnetic unsettled conditions, less optimistic for aurora than NOAA. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed; only a slight chance of M-class flares remains from developing regions 4503 and 4507.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions today, so aurora is unlikely tonight (13–14 Aug). Aurora chances increase from 14 to 15 Aug, particularly the nights of 14–15 and 15–16 Aug, when a CIR and a positive-polarity HSS are expected to interact with Earth's magnetosphere; NOAA SWPC gives a chance of minor G1 storming.
According to NOAA SWPC, solar wind should decline to background for most of 13 Aug, with CIR arrival late on 13 Aug or early on 14 Aug bringing unsettled to active levels and a G1 chance on 14–15 Aug. IPG's forecast for 14 Aug is only possible geomagnetic unsettled conditions, less optimistic for aurora than NOAA. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed; only a slight chance of M-class flares remains from developing regions 4503 and 4507.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-13, 12:44
Auroras are unlikely tonight (13–14 August) as geomagnetic activity should stay mostly quiet. A CIR ahead of a positive-polarity HSS may disturb the magnetosphere on 14–15 August, with a G1 chance per NOAA and possibly also 15–16 August; IPG is less optimistic.
NOAA SWPC expects solar wind to weaken until the CIR arrives late on 13 or early on 14 August, followed by HSS, causing unsettled to active conditions and a possible G1 storm on 14–15 August. IPG forecasts only possible unsettled conditions on 14 August. No Earth-directed CMEs are seen; a minor chance of M-class flares remains. Compared with the 07:44 UTC update, there are no significant changes.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are unlikely tonight (13–14 August) as geomagnetic activity should stay mostly quiet. A CIR ahead of a positive-polarity HSS may disturb the magnetosphere on 14–15 August, with a G1 chance per NOAA and possibly also 15–16 August; IPG is less optimistic.
NOAA SWPC expects solar wind to weaken until the CIR arrives late on 13 or early on 14 August, followed by HSS, causing unsettled to active conditions and a possible G1 storm on 14–15 August. IPG forecasts only possible unsettled conditions on 14 August. No Earth-directed CMEs are seen; a minor chance of M-class flares remains. Compared with the 07:44 UTC update, there are no significant changes.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-13, 14:01
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on 14–15 August as a CIR and then a +CH HSS are expected. Conditions on 13 August should be mostly quiet.
NOAA SWPC forecasts solar wind enhancement late on 13 Aug or early 14 Aug ahead of a +CH HSS, with unsettled to active levels and a chance of minor G1 storming on 14–15 Aug. IPG’s forecast for 13–14 Aug agrees: mostly quiet on 13 Aug, possibly unsettled on 14 Aug. Solar activity is low, only isolated C-class flares are likely, and no CMEs that could affect the magnetosphere have been observed. Disturbances should come from the solar wind interacting with the magnetosphere, which is favorable for auroras.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on 14–15 August as a CIR and then a +CH HSS are expected. Conditions on 13 August should be mostly quiet.
NOAA SWPC forecasts solar wind enhancement late on 13 Aug or early 14 Aug ahead of a +CH HSS, with unsettled to active levels and a chance of minor G1 storming on 14–15 Aug. IPG’s forecast for 13–14 Aug agrees: mostly quiet on 13 Aug, possibly unsettled on 14 Aug. Solar activity is low, only isolated C-class flares are likely, and no CMEs that could affect the magnetosphere have been observed. Disturbances should come from the solar wind interacting with the magnetosphere, which is favorable for auroras.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html