Space weather: 2026-08-16, 12:43
Auroras are likely in high latitudes: the main chance is Aug 17–18, with an additional window on the morning of Aug 19. Aug 16 is expected to be quiet.
NOAA sees no new Earth-directed CMEs, but expects the Aug 14 CME to bring active levels with a G1 chance on Aug 17–18. SIDC expects the same CME as a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy with NOAA remains. IPG forecasts quiet conditions on Aug 16 and possible unsettled conditions on Aug 17. No significant changes from the previous review.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are likely in high latitudes: the main chance is Aug 17–18, with an additional window on the morning of Aug 19. Aug 16 is expected to be quiet.
NOAA sees no new Earth-directed CMEs, but expects the Aug 14 CME to bring active levels with a G1 chance on Aug 17–18. SIDC expects the same CME as a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy with NOAA remains. IPG forecasts quiet conditions on Aug 16 and possible unsettled conditions on Aug 17. No significant changes from the previous review.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-17, 00:43
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on Aug 17–18, with an additional window on the morning of Aug 19. The outlook is mostly unchanged, but a new uncertainty appears: a fresh CME is being analyzed that could add to the disturbance.
NOAA still expects the Aug 14 CME to arrive on Aug 17–18, bringing active conditions and a chance of G1; SIDC anticipates a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy persists. NOAA is also analyzing a new CME linked to Aug 16 activity for a possible Earth-directed component, which might affect Aug 19–20. IPG (data from Aug 16) forecasts unsettled field on Aug 17. Otherwise, little has changed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on Aug 17–18, with an additional window on the morning of Aug 19. The outlook is mostly unchanged, but a new uncertainty appears: a fresh CME is being analyzed that could add to the disturbance.
NOAA still expects the Aug 14 CME to arrive on Aug 17–18, bringing active conditions and a chance of G1; SIDC anticipates a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy persists. NOAA is also analyzing a new CME linked to Aug 16 activity for a possible Earth-directed component, which might affect Aug 19–20. IPG (data from Aug 16) forecasts unsettled field on Aug 17. Otherwise, little has changed.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-17, 07:13
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on Aug 17–18, with an additional chance in the morning of Aug 19. The main forecast is unchanged, but new uncertainty has appeared: a fresh CME is being analyzed and may increase disturbances on Aug 19–20.
NOAA expects active conditions with a chance of G1 on Aug 17–18 from the Aug 14 CME, and mostly quiet on Aug 19; SIDC estimates this CME as a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy persists. The new CME after Aug 16 activity is under analysis for an Earth-directed component, with possible effects on Aug 19–20. IPG forecasts geomagnetic disturbance and flares up to X-class for Aug 17–18.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are likely at high latitudes on Aug 17–18, with an additional chance in the morning of Aug 19. The main forecast is unchanged, but new uncertainty has appeared: a fresh CME is being analyzed and may increase disturbances on Aug 19–20.
NOAA expects active conditions with a chance of G1 on Aug 17–18 from the Aug 14 CME, and mostly quiet on Aug 19; SIDC estimates this CME as a glancing interaction with the magnetosphere in the first half of Aug 19, so the discrepancy persists. The new CME after Aug 16 activity is under analysis for an Earth-directed component, with possible effects on Aug 19–20. IPG forecasts geomagnetic disturbance and flares up to X-class for Aug 17–18.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Space weather: 2026-08-17, 12:43
Auroras are likely in high latitudes on 17–18 August; 19 August remains a possibility with lower confidence. No new strong disturbances are expected, although the forecast for 19 August differs between sources.
NOAA expects unsettled to active conditions with a chance of G1 on 17–18 August from the 14 August CME, and mostly quiet on 19 August. SIDC still expects a glancing interaction of this CME with the magnetosphere in the first half of 19 August — the discrepancy with NOAA remains. The fresh slow CME after the C8.2 flare on 16 August is now modeled by NOAA as not Earth-directed, so the previously considered effect on 19–20 August is no longer expected. IPG forecasts geomagnetic disturbance and possible flares up to X-class on 17–18 August.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html
Auroras are likely in high latitudes on 17–18 August; 19 August remains a possibility with lower confidence. No new strong disturbances are expected, although the forecast for 19 August differs between sources.
NOAA expects unsettled to active conditions with a chance of G1 on 17–18 August from the 14 August CME, and mostly quiet on 19 August. SIDC still expects a glancing interaction of this CME with the magnetosphere in the first half of 19 August — the discrepancy with NOAA remains. The fresh slow CME after the C8.2 flare on 16 August is now modeled by NOAA as not Earth-directed, so the previously considered effect on 19–20 August is no longer expected. IPG forecasts geomagnetic disturbance and possible flares up to X-class on 17–18 August.
Sources:
- NOAA SWPC: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/discussion.txt
- SIDC RWC Belgium: https://www.sidc.be/products/presto/
- IPG: http://ipg.geospace.ru/space-weather-forecast.html