CNBC
A major historical bitcoin cycle that dictates its price might be breaking
Bitcoin's four-year price cycle, which has often had a predictable pattern, has shown signs of breaking or even disappearing altogether.
stacker news ~bitcoin:
A major historical bitcoin cycle that dictates its price might be breaking
#Cycle #Ciclo #ATH #Analysis
A major historical bitcoin cycle that dictates its price might be breaking
#Cycle #Ciclo #ATH #Analysis
CryptoCon #ATH #Cycle #BullMarket
August has ended red for Bitcoin more times than any other month in the year.
But, there is one special time that August likes to be bullish, which is during the final year of the cycle.
These Augusts have all been bullish:
-2013
-2017
-2021
Seasonality has been a bit strange this year... especially the bearish February, which was previously the most bullish month of all time, now tied with October.
But, all things considered, it's looking good for August 2025!
TutorialBTC.t.me
August has ended red for Bitcoin more times than any other month in the year.
But, there is one special time that August likes to be bullish, which is during the final year of the cycle.
These Augusts have all been bullish:
-2013
-2017
-2021
Seasonality has been a bit strange this year... especially the bearish February, which was previously the most bullish month of all time, now tied with October.
But, all things considered, it's looking good for August 2025!
TutorialBTC.t.me
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr
GM!
Despite #ATH, #BPT remains moderately high at 2.56 (below the local peak of 3.57), meaning this is already a "warm" temperature for the current #cycle but without obvious overheating yet. Price holds above the 4-year MA and its +2σ (green), confirming the bullish trend.
Main risk is typical corrections within the uptrend, "late-stage" signals will appear when BPT accelerates above 3.0.
GM!
Despite #ATH, #BPT remains moderately high at 2.56 (below the local peak of 3.57), meaning this is already a "warm" temperature for the current #cycle but without obvious overheating yet. Price holds above the 4-year MA and its +2σ (green), confirming the bullish trend.
Main risk is typical corrections within the uptrend, "late-stage" signals will appear when BPT accelerates above 3.0.
ChartsBTC #Cycle
Bottom to Top vs 4 & 8 Years Ago
Current Price: $117,850
Price 4 Years Ago: $44,694
(Scaled: $221,127)
Price 8 Years Ago: $4,276
(Scaled: $382,848)
as of Ago/17/2025
PS.
- Actual Cycle:
Nov 2022 to Nov 2025
- Next Cycle:
Nov 2026 to Nov 2029
#ATH@TutorialBTC
Bottom to Top vs 4 & 8 Years Ago
Current Price: $117,850
Price 4 Years Ago: $44,694
(Scaled: $221,127)
Price 8 Years Ago: $4,276
(Scaled: $382,848)
as of Ago/17/2025
PS.
- Actual Cycle:
Nov 2022 to Nov 2025
- Next Cycle:
Nov 2026 to Nov 2029
#ATH@TutorialBTC
2025 Bitcoin #Cycle vs Previous #Cycles
Ago/21/2025
PS. Preste atenção nisto!!! #DCA #BCA
#Halving@TutorialBTC
Ago/21/2025
PS. Preste atenção nisto!!! #DCA #BCA
#Halving@TutorialBTC
CryptoCon
In hindsight, this Bitcoin #cycle will probably be just as simple as any other.
It's the unprecedented amount of waiting, uncertainty surrounding Altcoins, and the typical greed of "what if Bitcoin never goes through a bear #market again" that creates the challenge.
Another metric awaits the completion of the final phase, #SMIEO.
In hindsight, this Bitcoin #cycle will probably be just as simple as any other.
It's the unprecedented amount of waiting, uncertainty surrounding Altcoins, and the typical greed of "what if Bitcoin never goes through a bear #market again" that creates the challenge.
Another metric awaits the completion of the final phase, #SMIEO.
Max Keiser
RT btcnewsalerts: 🚀 “#WallStreet needs Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't need Wall Street. $800,000 in this #cycle is guaranteed, with or without Wall Street.”- MaxKeiser
🔥 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝟒𝐩𝐦 𝐄𝐓 #𝐑𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦:
👉 rumble.com/v6xzdcc
RT btcnewsalerts: 🚀 “#WallStreet needs Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't need Wall Street. $800,000 in this #cycle is guaranteed, with or without Wall Street.”- MaxKeiser
🔥 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝟒𝐩𝐦 𝐄𝐓 #𝐑𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐦:
👉 rumble.com/v6xzdcc
Rumble
Max Keiser: $800K Bitcoin Is Guaranteed This Cycle - Wall Street Can’t Stop It
Max Keiser just dropped his boldest Bitcoin projection yet: $800,000 this cycle is guaranteed. “Bitcoin has no ceiling because fiat has no floor. In US dollar terms, the price of Bitcoin, because it’s
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr
#Cycle and #volatility-adjusted #MVRV@TutorialBTC
100% - closer to historical overheated extremes.
0% - closer to complete capitulation.
Currently = 39%, risk/reward balance closer to neutral, no strong upward/downward signals from the metric itself, the market appears to have cooled down from overheating and transitioned to consolidation without extremes.
#Cycle and #volatility-adjusted #MVRV@TutorialBTC
100% - closer to historical overheated extremes.
0% - closer to complete capitulation.
Currently = 39%, risk/reward balance closer to neutral, no strong upward/downward signals from the metric itself, the market appears to have cooled down from overheating and transitioned to consolidation without extremes.
#Bitcoin #ATH #Cycle
Bottom to Top vs. 4 & 8 Years Ago
Current Price: $108,536
Price 4 Years Ago: $48,809
(Scaled: $241,486)
Price 8 Years Ago: $4,579
(Scaled: $409,977)
08/30/2025 19H UTC
PS. 500 - 550 Days Pos-#Halving?
#ATH@TutorialBTC
Bottom to Top vs. 4 & 8 Years Ago
Current Price: $108,536
Price 4 Years Ago: $48,809
(Scaled: $241,486)
Price 8 Years Ago: $4,579
(Scaled: $409,977)
08/30/2025 19H UTC
PS. 500 - 550 Days Pos-#Halving?
#ATH@TutorialBTC
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Trending Bitcoin
🇺🇸 $10 billion #Bitwise says the 4-year #Bitcoin #cycle is over: "There will be an overwhelming amount of capital coming to Bitcoin" 🚀
PS. "Pés no chão". CUIDADO COM FOMO.
🇺🇸 $10 billion #Bitwise says the 4-year #Bitcoin #cycle is over: "There will be an overwhelming amount of capital coming to Bitcoin" 🚀
PS. "Pés no chão". CUIDADO COM FOMO.
#Cycle #Fractal Today is a day to share analyses about Bitcoin’s future! Here’s a personal opinion: https://xcancel.com/joao_wedson/status/1963243995804352669
Set/03/2025 #Calendar
#ATH@TutorialBTC
#ATL@TutorialBTC
Set/03/2025 #Calendar
#ATH@TutorialBTC
#ATL@TutorialBTC
Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr Set/04/2025
On the #monthly TF, BTC is at $110.7K and holding just above #STH Realized Price $107.6K (key monthly bull #support level).
Overall Realized Price is $52.8K and #LTH RP $35.6K price is significantly above both, confirming the structural uptrend.
#NUPL 0.53 broad profit regime, but below extremes of previous cycles.
Higher TF remains bullish but in repair phase: market is sensitive to profit-taking, key reference point is STH RP $107K.
Holding this zone will support the uptrend continuation scenario; there are no signs of final euphoria in NUPL yet, which leaves room for #cycle continuation after consolidation.
On the #monthly TF, BTC is at $110.7K and holding just above #STH Realized Price $107.6K (key monthly bull #support level).
Overall Realized Price is $52.8K and #LTH RP $35.6K price is significantly above both, confirming the structural uptrend.
#NUPL 0.53 broad profit regime, but below extremes of previous cycles.
Higher TF remains bullish but in repair phase: market is sensitive to profit-taking, key reference point is STH RP $107K.
Holding this zone will support the uptrend continuation scenario; there are no signs of final euphoria in NUPL yet, which leaves room for #cycle continuation after consolidation.