CryptoCon JAN/08/2026
The Bitcoin cycle is overheated and due for a bear market.
For any of you who have held Bitcoin or especially Altcoins through a bear market, you know that's not a place where you want to be.
Think of risk/reward when you look at this Monthly Bollinger Band % Channel. Are the odds in favor of holding for a "Bottom is in!" or "business cycle"?
Definitely not.
A business cycle already proves it does not line up, as it claims that the cycle is only just beginning as it is ending.
It can be hard to combat the popular narratives at the highs and lows because they are what everyone wants to believe at the time:
"Recession coming"
"Black Swan Coming"
"ETF Super cycle"
"No More Bear Markets"
It's not #FUD, it's just the way of the traditional 4 year #cycle (#Halving Cycles #Theory).
PS. #ATL NOV/2026 SMA200.
>> FOMO/FUD
The Bitcoin cycle is overheated and due for a bear market.
For any of you who have held Bitcoin or especially Altcoins through a bear market, you know that's not a place where you want to be.
Think of risk/reward when you look at this Monthly Bollinger Band % Channel. Are the odds in favor of holding for a "Bottom is in!" or "business cycle"?
Definitely not.
A business cycle already proves it does not line up, as it claims that the cycle is only just beginning as it is ending.
It can be hard to combat the popular narratives at the highs and lows because they are what everyone wants to believe at the time:
"Recession coming"
"Black Swan Coming"
"ETF Super cycle"
"No More Bear Markets"
It's not #FUD, it's just the way of the traditional 4 year #cycle (#Halving Cycles #Theory).
PS. #ATL NOV/2026 SMA200.
>> FOMO/FUD
CryptoCon
Exhibit A of why a 30% correction is not the #bear market low.
#NUPL has a long way to go before reaching the .382 #Fibonacci retrace #cycle bottom.
People will say whatever they can to contradict the "obvious" 4-year cycle. It always manages to hide in plain sight.
Of course, nuances are to be expected.
"But sentiment is so bad!"
Actually, this is the most optimistic I've seen influencers and commenters at any low. At other lows, it's been "Recession coming!" or "Black swan coming!"
Now it's "Bear market low is in", "Business cycle", "Lengthening cycle." But we can just rename all these to "It's different this time."
>> Rota Hodler
Exhibit A of why a 30% correction is not the #bear market low.
#NUPL has a long way to go before reaching the .382 #Fibonacci retrace #cycle bottom.
People will say whatever they can to contradict the "obvious" 4-year cycle. It always manages to hide in plain sight.
Of course, nuances are to be expected.
"But sentiment is so bad!"
Actually, this is the most optimistic I've seen influencers and commenters at any low. At other lows, it's been "Recession coming!" or "Black swan coming!"
Now it's "Bear market low is in", "Business cycle", "Lengthening cycle." But we can just rename all these to "It's different this time."
>> Rota Hodler
CryptoCon #Cycle #4Years JAN/16/2026
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
⏳ Approximately 36 weeks remain until the Bitcoin Fractal #Cycle concludes. | JAN/25/2026
Intriguingly, the cycles continue to repeat, defying the narrative of many analysts who no longer believe Bitcoin follows a predictable #fractal structure.
Markets change. Participants change.
Yet human behavior and cyclical market structure continue to leave clear signals for those who focus on data, not just narratives.
📊 Cycles are not guarantees — but historically, ignoring them has been a costly mistake.
We continue to monitor closely. #Bear 2026 #Calendar
>> 3.125
Intriguingly, the cycles continue to repeat, defying the narrative of many analysts who no longer believe Bitcoin follows a predictable #fractal structure.
Markets change. Participants change.
Yet human behavior and cyclical market structure continue to leave clear signals for those who focus on data, not just narratives.
📊 Cycles are not guarantees — but historically, ignoring them has been a costly mistake.
We continue to monitor closely. #Bear 2026 #Calendar
>> 3.125
⚠️Bitcoin has already fallen -37% from its all-time high.
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F