CryptoCon 28/01/2026
Here's this year's Bitcoin bear market lined up with others (2014, 2018, and 2022).
The common thought is that the bear market drawdown is decreasing each cycle, and that's been the trend so far. -86%, -84%, -77%.
Bitcoin is even ahead now of where it has been at the same point in other cycles. Current drawdown from the cycle top is - 32%, while other cycles have been 43 - 61%.
But... there's a point in the bear market that percentage drawdowns unify right before the end, meaning that only the final drop really seems to matter. The unification point is in September 2026 at 35k.
Based on previous timelines, the cycle bottom would be between October and November 2026. The Halving Cycles Theory projects November 2026 - January 2027.
A cycle 1 bear market copy is 17k, a cycle 3 bear market copy is 28k.
The #bear market is about 30% complete time-wise.
>> Rota Hodler #Share
Here's this year's Bitcoin bear market lined up with others (2014, 2018, and 2022).
The common thought is that the bear market drawdown is decreasing each cycle, and that's been the trend so far. -86%, -84%, -77%.
Bitcoin is even ahead now of where it has been at the same point in other cycles. Current drawdown from the cycle top is - 32%, while other cycles have been 43 - 61%.
But... there's a point in the bear market that percentage drawdowns unify right before the end, meaning that only the final drop really seems to matter. The unification point is in September 2026 at 35k.
Based on previous timelines, the cycle bottom would be between October and November 2026. The Halving Cycles Theory projects November 2026 - January 2027.
A cycle 1 bear market copy is 17k, a cycle 3 bear market copy is 28k.
The #bear market is about 30% complete time-wise.
>> Rota Hodler #Share
#Bear This chart perfectly called the recent market crash.
If the 4-year pattern is still in play, $BTC will dump to ≈$30,000.
Position accordingly.
PS.
- ETFs USA JAN/11/2024 $38K-$49K.
- #Support SMA200 $55K
- Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (W or M) + #BuyTheDip on the supports.
>> Rota Hodler #Share
If the 4-year pattern is still in play, $BTC will dump to ≈$30,000.
Position accordingly.
PS.
- ETFs USA JAN/11/2024 $38K-$49K.
- #Support SMA200 $55K
- Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (W or M) + #BuyTheDip on the supports.
>> Rota Hodler #Share
Joao Wedson FEB/02/26
#Bear The Bitcoin price bottom only happens when...
✅ Short-Term Holders are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms))
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price.
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price, after the bear market has fully played out.
We track this with a dedicated chart to alert you when it happens.
Data > Narratives
👇👇👇
>> FOMO/FUD
#Bear The Bitcoin price bottom only happens when...
✅ Short-Term Holders are in loss (this has already happened)
⏳ Long-Term Holders start carrying losses (this has not happened yet — this is when the real bottom forms))
Additionally:
🔴 The bear market only ends when the STH Realized Price falls below the LTH Realized Price.
🟢 The bull market begins when the STH Realized Price moves back above the LTH Realized Price, after the bear market has fully played out.
We track this with a dedicated chart to alert you when it happens.
Data > Narratives
👇👇👇
>> FOMO/FUD
SATOSHI ° NOSTR ° AI + CLAW ° LINUX ° ₿2B • OSINT • LEARN | HODLER
PlanB: PlanB Bitcoin Market Analysis
#PlanB #Bear 2026
https://fxtwitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/2019056958481866861
PS.
- #Support #Opportunidy's #Gerational
- Focus: #BCA + #BuyTheDip
>> F/F
https://fxtwitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/2019056958481866861
PS.
- #Support #Opportunidy's #Gerational
- Focus: #BCA + #BuyTheDip
>> F/F
FxTwitter
PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios:
1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k
2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k
3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k
4) yesterday's $72.9k was the bottom
I discuss these scenario's in my new video:
👉 …
1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k
2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k
3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k
4) yesterday's $72.9k was the bottom
I discuss these scenario's in my new video:
👉 …