CryptoCon DEC/02/2025
The "First #Cycle Top" on the #Fibonacci #Halving would have been off by about 2 months (depending on where you place it), but the cycle top mark was nearly dead at just 2 weeks post the October cycle top.
I distinctly remember before the last bear market in 2022, we heard the same song and dance:
"Bitcoin will not see a bear market this go around because institutions, etc. Only 30% corrections from here on out."
On every price bump, you'll see: "Bottom's in, new ATHs soon." That's the bear market trap.
The #bear market usually takes the full year to play out, so it's a long, painful process.
>> Rota Hodler
The "First #Cycle Top" on the #Fibonacci #Halving would have been off by about 2 months (depending on where you place it), but the cycle top mark was nearly dead at just 2 weeks post the October cycle top.
I distinctly remember before the last bear market in 2022, we heard the same song and dance:
"Bitcoin will not see a bear market this go around because institutions, etc. Only 30% corrections from here on out."
On every price bump, you'll see: "Bottom's in, new ATHs soon." That's the bear market trap.
The #bear market usually takes the full year to play out, so it's a long, painful process.
>> Rota Hodler
CryptoCon
The cycle top of the Monthly Fisher Transform is complete with the 3rd crossover of the #cycle, lining up perfectly within the Halving Cycles Theory time frame.
>> Rota Hodler
The cycle top of the Monthly Fisher Transform is complete with the 3rd crossover of the #cycle, lining up perfectly within the Halving Cycles Theory time frame.
>> Rota Hodler
CryptoCon
For people who are watching traditional Bitcoin cycle top #metric's and wondering... "Why haven't any of them triggered if the cycle top is in?"
Diminishing pressure is likely the answer.
As returns diminish, so do metric values.
In 2021, data like #MVRV, RHODL, and many others failed to reach their #cycle top zones. They had to be reworked with lower zones to potentially work in the next cycle.
Several popular log growth curve models and rainbow curves completely failed to achieve their cycle top levels, and during the bear market price broke through them to the downside and never returned inside the model.
Just because a model or data piece has been good in the past doesn't guarantee that going forward. Models that have price expectations that are too optimistic will break.
This is why it's important to use data from as many sources as possible to come to a good conclusion.
>> Rota Hodler
For people who are watching traditional Bitcoin cycle top #metric's and wondering... "Why haven't any of them triggered if the cycle top is in?"
Diminishing pressure is likely the answer.
As returns diminish, so do metric values.
In 2021, data like #MVRV, RHODL, and many others failed to reach their #cycle top zones. They had to be reworked with lower zones to potentially work in the next cycle.
Several popular log growth curve models and rainbow curves completely failed to achieve their cycle top levels, and during the bear market price broke through them to the downside and never returned inside the model.
Just because a model or data piece has been good in the past doesn't guarantee that going forward. Models that have price expectations that are too optimistic will break.
This is why it's important to use data from as many sources as possible to come to a good conclusion.
>> Rota Hodler
Leo Heart Dec/22/2025
While prominent Bitcoin analysts like #ArthurHayes and researchers at #K33 argue that the traditional 4-year halving cycles are dead due to institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and shifting monetary policies, this root-scale chart tells a different story.
All 5 out of 5 #cycle tops (H1 through H5) have been modeled with remarkable precision using a single natural cycle framework tied to Bitcoin's block production. The pattern holds strong, with projections extending into 2028 showing no signs of the cycles fading.
If the data fits this tightly, why declare the end? Cycles aren't over—they're evolving, but still very much alive.
>> Rota Hodler
While prominent Bitcoin analysts like #ArthurHayes and researchers at #K33 argue that the traditional 4-year halving cycles are dead due to institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and shifting monetary policies, this root-scale chart tells a different story.
All 5 out of 5 #cycle tops (H1 through H5) have been modeled with remarkable precision using a single natural cycle framework tied to Bitcoin's block production. The pattern holds strong, with projections extending into 2028 showing no signs of the cycles fading.
If the data fits this tightly, why declare the end? Cycles aren't over—they're evolving, but still very much alive.
>> Rota Hodler
The 4-year #cycle will officially
break if Bitcoin ends 2025
below $93k
PS.
- Curiosidade: #YTD ANUAL
entre #halving's anteriores
continua o mesmo? 🟩🟩🟩🟥
- Cálculo:
• 1 Halving = 210000 blocos
• 210000 ÷ 4 anos = 52.500 blocos
• Cada 52.500 blocos, verificar
data e ROI YTD.
6️⃣ Mar/21/2028 🚦
5️⃣ Abr/20/2024
4️⃣ May/11/2020
3️⃣ Jul/09/2016
2️⃣ Nov/28/2012
1️⃣ Jan/03/2009
https://redd.it/1q0bxvj
@TutorialBTC
break if Bitcoin ends 2025
below $93k
PS.
- Curiosidade: #YTD ANUAL
entre #halving's anteriores
continua o mesmo? 🟩🟩🟩🟥
- Cálculo:
• 1 Halving = 210000 blocos
• 210000 ÷ 4 anos = 52.500 blocos
• Cada 52.500 blocos, verificar
data e ROI YTD.
6️⃣ Mar/21/2028 🚦
5️⃣ Abr/20/2024
4️⃣ May/11/2020
3️⃣ Jul/09/2016
2️⃣ Nov/28/2012
1️⃣ Jan/03/2009
https://redd.it/1q0bxvj
@TutorialBTC
CryptoCon JAN/08/2026
The Bitcoin cycle is overheated and due for a bear market.
For any of you who have held Bitcoin or especially Altcoins through a bear market, you know that's not a place where you want to be.
Think of risk/reward when you look at this Monthly Bollinger Band % Channel. Are the odds in favor of holding for a "Bottom is in!" or "business cycle"?
Definitely not.
A business cycle already proves it does not line up, as it claims that the cycle is only just beginning as it is ending.
It can be hard to combat the popular narratives at the highs and lows because they are what everyone wants to believe at the time:
"Recession coming"
"Black Swan Coming"
"ETF Super cycle"
"No More Bear Markets"
It's not #FUD, it's just the way of the traditional 4 year #cycle (#Halving Cycles #Theory).
PS. #ATL NOV/2026 SMA200.
>> FOMO/FUD
The Bitcoin cycle is overheated and due for a bear market.
For any of you who have held Bitcoin or especially Altcoins through a bear market, you know that's not a place where you want to be.
Think of risk/reward when you look at this Monthly Bollinger Band % Channel. Are the odds in favor of holding for a "Bottom is in!" or "business cycle"?
Definitely not.
A business cycle already proves it does not line up, as it claims that the cycle is only just beginning as it is ending.
It can be hard to combat the popular narratives at the highs and lows because they are what everyone wants to believe at the time:
"Recession coming"
"Black Swan Coming"
"ETF Super cycle"
"No More Bear Markets"
It's not #FUD, it's just the way of the traditional 4 year #cycle (#Halving Cycles #Theory).
PS. #ATL NOV/2026 SMA200.
>> FOMO/FUD
CryptoCon
Exhibit A of why a 30% correction is not the #bear market low.
#NUPL has a long way to go before reaching the .382 #Fibonacci retrace #cycle bottom.
People will say whatever they can to contradict the "obvious" 4-year cycle. It always manages to hide in plain sight.
Of course, nuances are to be expected.
"But sentiment is so bad!"
Actually, this is the most optimistic I've seen influencers and commenters at any low. At other lows, it's been "Recession coming!" or "Black swan coming!"
Now it's "Bear market low is in", "Business cycle", "Lengthening cycle." But we can just rename all these to "It's different this time."
>> Rota Hodler
Exhibit A of why a 30% correction is not the #bear market low.
#NUPL has a long way to go before reaching the .382 #Fibonacci retrace #cycle bottom.
People will say whatever they can to contradict the "obvious" 4-year cycle. It always manages to hide in plain sight.
Of course, nuances are to be expected.
"But sentiment is so bad!"
Actually, this is the most optimistic I've seen influencers and commenters at any low. At other lows, it's been "Recession coming!" or "Black swan coming!"
Now it's "Bear market low is in", "Business cycle", "Lengthening cycle." But we can just rename all these to "It's different this time."
>> Rota Hodler
CryptoCon #Cycle #4Years JAN/16/2026
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
⏳ Approximately 36 weeks remain until the Bitcoin Fractal #Cycle concludes. | JAN/25/2026
Intriguingly, the cycles continue to repeat, defying the narrative of many analysts who no longer believe Bitcoin follows a predictable #fractal structure.
Markets change. Participants change.
Yet human behavior and cyclical market structure continue to leave clear signals for those who focus on data, not just narratives.
📊 Cycles are not guarantees — but historically, ignoring them has been a costly mistake.
We continue to monitor closely. #Bear 2026 #Calendar
>> 3.125
Intriguingly, the cycles continue to repeat, defying the narrative of many analysts who no longer believe Bitcoin follows a predictable #fractal structure.
Markets change. Participants change.
Yet human behavior and cyclical market structure continue to leave clear signals for those who focus on data, not just narratives.
📊 Cycles are not guarantees — but historically, ignoring them has been a costly mistake.
We continue to monitor closely. #Bear 2026 #Calendar
>> 3.125
⚠️Bitcoin has already fallen -37% from its all-time high.
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F