Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down about 35% compared to the same period last year.

Sales are lower in nearly every country, except Norway and Spain. Norway will be about 1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s very small compared to the large declines elsewhere.

Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.

The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.

Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: 109,520 units

Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.

In the first half of the year, Tesla sold

• 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and
• 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units.

The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.

The latest update I posted today on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143115) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use this data to estimate Tesla’s production.

Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.

I’ll tweet my final estimates on June 30th, as I always do, to be transparent about my error rate.

Tesla doesn’t report Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X sales separately. Instead, it combines all three into a single number.

That number was 23,640 units in Q4 2024 but fell to 12,881 units in Q1 2025 due to weak demand. Based on the latest data, the decline is expected to continue this quarter.

Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: cbc.ca/news/canada/te…), but Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: tesla.com/findus/list/st…), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.

Hi everyone. The chart shows Tesla’s actual sales in Europe, based on vehicle registration data from 25 countries.

In Q2 2025, Tesla sold 55,924 units in Europe, up 4% quarter-over-quarter, but down 29% from 78,417 units in Q2 2024.

Elon spent a lot of time on the earnings call reframing things differently.

Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

In recent years, Tesla has consistently published the numbers on the second day of the month. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

You can view the official numbers by clicking the “Press Release” link once the Q3 row is added: ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-dis…

Hi everyone, here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q3 2025. For reference, deliveries were 462,890 units in Q3 2024.

• My estimate: 481,000
• Analyst consensus: 443,079 (from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26)

Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.

My Estimate: 481,000
Actual: 497,099
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%

Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Actual: 497,099
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%

The 443,079 consensus comes from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26.