Tesla's delivery performance in Q2 isn't looking great so far. The sales numbers from China and Europe aren’t promising. My full-year delivery estimate is now clearly below 1.7 million, which no longer seems achievable.
I've also lowered my 2026 delivery estimate following news that the $7,500 federal EV tax credit might be canceled later this year.
For more info, check out my daily updates on Patreon: patreon.com/posts/128241259
I've also lowered my 2026 delivery estimate following news that the $7,500 federal EV tax credit might be canceled later this year.
For more info, check out my daily updates on Patreon: patreon.com/posts/128241259
What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025?
Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter. Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units, adding 16,710 sets a target of 460,666 units for Q2. Achieving that number would be a strong result, but at this point, it doesn't look possible.
What would be a very bad delivery result for Q2 2025?
A 10% or greater drop in full-year deliveries would be considered a very bad outcome. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 units in 2024. A 10% decline would mean 1,610,303 units, or 178,923 fewer units. After Q1 2025, Tesla is already down 50,129 units. That leaves 128,794 units across the next three quarters, or about 42,931 units per quarter, to result in a 10% annual decline.
Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units. Subtracting 42,931 puts the threshold at 401,025 units for Q2. If Tesla delivers 401,025 units or fewer, it would signal a very bad result, suggesting they’re on track for a 10% decline in deliveries for the year.
Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter. Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units, adding 16,710 sets a target of 460,666 units for Q2. Achieving that number would be a strong result, but at this point, it doesn't look possible.
What would be a very bad delivery result for Q2 2025?
A 10% or greater drop in full-year deliveries would be considered a very bad outcome. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 units in 2024. A 10% decline would mean 1,610,303 units, or 178,923 fewer units. After Q1 2025, Tesla is already down 50,129 units. That leaves 128,794 units across the next three quarters, or about 42,931 units per quarter, to result in a 10% annual decline.
Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units. Subtracting 42,931 puts the threshold at 401,025 units for Q2. If Tesla delivers 401,025 units or fewer, it would signal a very bad result, suggesting they’re on track for a 10% decline in deliveries for the year.
Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far:
Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.
2025 Full-Year: Deliveries are expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.64 million units, down from 1,789,226 in 2024.
Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.
2025 Full-Year: Deliveries are expected to be between 1.5 million and 1.64 million units, down from 1,789,226 in 2024.
Tesla deliveries dropped just 1.1% in 2024. But this year, the decline is expected to be over 10%.
Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.
Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.
Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down about 35% compared to the same period last year.
Sales are lower in nearly every country, except Norway and Spain. Norway will be about 1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s very small compared to the large declines elsewhere.
Sales are lower in nearly every country, except Norway and Spain. Norway will be about 1,700 units above last year in the first half, but that’s very small compared to the large declines elsewhere.
Tesla's Global inventory increased from 77,000 at the end of Q4 2024 to 101,000 at the end of Q1 2025. A similar increase is expected this quarter, with production running higher than deliveries because of limited demand.
In the first half of the year, Tesla sold
• 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and
• 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units.
The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.
• 345,088 cars in North America in 2023, and
• 313,727 in 2024, a drop of 31,361 units.
The decline continues in 2025, but this time, the drop will be much larger than 31,000 or even 40,000 units.
The latest update I posted today on Patreon (patreon.com/posts/132143115) includes DMV VIN data up to June 25. I use this data to estimate Tesla’s production.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
I’ll tweet my final estimates on June 30th, as I always do, to be transparent about my error rate.
Over the last 12 quarters, my error rate has been 1.4% for production and 3.0% for deliveries.
I’ll tweet my final estimates on June 30th, as I always do, to be transparent about my error rate.
Tesla is struggling to adapt to the new reality of lower sales. For example, sales in Canada have dropped to nearly zero, largely due to political controversy (source: cbc.ca/news/canada/te…), but Tesla continues to operate 35 stores across the country (source: tesla.com/findus/list/st…), keeping SG&A costs high at a time when the company appears to be on track to report GAAP losses starting in Q1 2026.
Tesla is expected to release its Q3 2025 production and delivery numbers tomorrow at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
In recent years, Tesla has consistently published the numbers on the second day of the month. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
You can view the official numbers by clicking the “Press Release” link once the Q3 row is added: ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-dis…
In recent years, Tesla has consistently published the numbers on the second day of the month. When markets are open, as they will be tomorrow, the numbers are released at around 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
You can view the official numbers by clicking the “Press Release” link once the Q3 row is added: ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-dis…
Actual numbers are in: Tesla delivered 497,099 cars in Q3. My estimate was 3.2% too low, while the analyst consensus missed by 10.9%.
My Estimate: 481,000
Actual: 497,099
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Actual: 497,099
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
The 443,079 consensus comes from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26.
My Estimate: 481,000
Actual: 497,099
My Error (units): -16,099
My Error (%): -3.2%
Analyst Consensus: 443,079
Actual: 497,099
Consensus Error (units): -54,020
Consensus Error (%): -10.9%
The 443,079 consensus comes from Tesla’s survey of 25 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Sep 26.