BREAKING MARKET ALERT 🚨
Major ADP & NFP data dropping tomorrow – 3 December 2025.
High volatility expected📈
Stay ready — big market moves coming!
More updates coming soon…🔔 📊
Major ADP & NFP data dropping tomorrow – 3 December 2025.
High volatility expected
Stay ready — big market moves coming!
More updates coming soon…
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📰 Daily Market Insights
Current Meta Direction
• Infra > Speculation: Capital rotating to rails—x402 now settles 20% of all Base txs, EigenCloud bringing verifiable compute, and $1.5B stablecoins moved to Solana this week.
• Institutional normalization: Vanguard reverses crypto boycott → offering ETFs to 50M clients. Schwab enabling BTC/ETH trading in 2026 for advisors managing $12T.
• Ethereum transition: Fusaka upgrade creating real blob fee markets (0.01–0.5 gwei vs broken 1 wei). L2s get cheaper. ETH supply becomes more deflationary—ecosystem win, token ambiguity.
• Prediction markets overheating: Kalshi raising $1B at $11B valuation while states issue cease-and-desist orders. Peak hype meeting regulatory walls.
Opportunities & Catalysts
• Monad land grab: Network already top 10 in fees ($125K/week, +241% tx growth). LFJ offering $27.5K/wk incentives for MON/USDC LPs. Accumulation window before CEX listings.
• Crypto card infra: Rain processes $240M/month (+22% MoM) while MetaMask card drops 30%. Whoever controls the spend layer captures the user.
• Jupiter $WET claim (Dec 9): Phase 1–2 sold out instantly. Pre-market at $0.11–0.14, $142K volume. Whales positioning ahead of claim → volatility setup.
• Base RWA flows: USTBL +71.5%, EURC +21.6% in 30 days. BlackRock’s BUIDL over $500M on BNB sets template for multi-chain RWA issuance.
• Forward Industries AMM: Solana’s largest treasury manager ($230M fwdSOL) launching AMM backed by Galaxy + Jump. Currently in testing—early entry edge.
Market Summary
• Loss aversion shaping flows: MicroStrategy cuts BTC buys by 93% while building $1.44B reserves. Meanwhile retail piling into 18x longs on Hyperliquid → asymmetry between smart hedging vs dumb leverage.
• Reflexive FOMO: BlackRock CEO admitting “I was wrong about BTC” on national TV unlocks institutional herd behavior. Each public conversion amplifies the next.
• Prediction markets too efficient: Traders winning on both Kalshi + Polymarket from same Google trend outcome → when markets predict themselves, signal dies.
• Memecoin capitulation: FARTCOIN -10% while majors +5–17%. $PLOI dev faking death rumor = peak desperation → rotation into utility narratives.
• Liquidity risk rising: Hyperliquid whales running $30M+ positions with 6–18x leverage. One forced unwind = cascade. Classic late-cycle set-up.
Current Meta Direction
• Infra > Speculation: Capital rotating to rails—x402 now settles 20% of all Base txs, EigenCloud bringing verifiable compute, and $1.5B stablecoins moved to Solana this week.
• Institutional normalization: Vanguard reverses crypto boycott → offering ETFs to 50M clients. Schwab enabling BTC/ETH trading in 2026 for advisors managing $12T.
• Ethereum transition: Fusaka upgrade creating real blob fee markets (0.01–0.5 gwei vs broken 1 wei). L2s get cheaper. ETH supply becomes more deflationary—ecosystem win, token ambiguity.
• Prediction markets overheating: Kalshi raising $1B at $11B valuation while states issue cease-and-desist orders. Peak hype meeting regulatory walls.
Opportunities & Catalysts
• Monad land grab: Network already top 10 in fees ($125K/week, +241% tx growth). LFJ offering $27.5K/wk incentives for MON/USDC LPs. Accumulation window before CEX listings.
• Crypto card infra: Rain processes $240M/month (+22% MoM) while MetaMask card drops 30%. Whoever controls the spend layer captures the user.
• Jupiter $WET claim (Dec 9): Phase 1–2 sold out instantly. Pre-market at $0.11–0.14, $142K volume. Whales positioning ahead of claim → volatility setup.
• Base RWA flows: USTBL +71.5%, EURC +21.6% in 30 days. BlackRock’s BUIDL over $500M on BNB sets template for multi-chain RWA issuance.
• Forward Industries AMM: Solana’s largest treasury manager ($230M fwdSOL) launching AMM backed by Galaxy + Jump. Currently in testing—early entry edge.
Market Summary
• Loss aversion shaping flows: MicroStrategy cuts BTC buys by 93% while building $1.44B reserves. Meanwhile retail piling into 18x longs on Hyperliquid → asymmetry between smart hedging vs dumb leverage.
• Reflexive FOMO: BlackRock CEO admitting “I was wrong about BTC” on national TV unlocks institutional herd behavior. Each public conversion amplifies the next.
• Prediction markets too efficient: Traders winning on both Kalshi + Polymarket from same Google trend outcome → when markets predict themselves, signal dies.
• Memecoin capitulation: FARTCOIN -10% while majors +5–17%. $PLOI dev faking death rumor = peak desperation → rotation into utility narratives.
• Liquidity risk rising: Hyperliquid whales running $30M+ positions with 6–18x leverage. One forced unwind = cascade. Classic late-cycle set-up.
MONDAY → QE STARTING?
TUESDAY → INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
WEDNESDAY → FED RATE CUTS
THURSDAY → FED BALANCE SHEET RELEASE
FRIDAY → JEROME POWELL RESIGNS
THE BIGGEST BULL RUN STARTS NEXT WEEK!
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Current Meta Direction
• Institutions capitulating to crypto: Vanguard reverses ban and opens ETFs to 50M+ clients. PNC enables BTC trading inside accounts. GameStop allocates $500M to BTC. Citi, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BNY Mellon now issuing credit against BTC collateral. The wall is gone.
• Solana infra compounding hard: USDC supply hits $16B (3x YTD). Invesco/Galaxy file SOL ETF 8-A. Kazakhstan launches first regulated SOL ETF with staking. Reflexivity loop: better rails → more capital → better rails.
• Jupiter’s “controlled demolition” moment: Meow breaks silence after 2 months, admits JUP underperformance and governance confusion. Community demanded accountability, and founder delivered a reset. Loss crystallization may set stage for turnaround.
• RWA tokenization breaking containment: Apollo’s $10.7M fund on Sei, Canton Network handling $6T regulated assets, plus multiple stablecoin infra deals. “TradFi onchain” has moved from narrative → execution.
Opportunities & Catalysts
• Solana plays into Breakpoint (Dec 11–13): Conference + ETF filing + USDC growth = attention cluster. Focus on infra: Meteora DLMM upgrades, Jupiter DTF launches, and Solana-native DeFi positioned for institutional inflows.
• Jupiter redemption setup: JUP heavily discounted, founder owning failures, strategic reset imminent. Prospect Theory setup: downside feels priced in, small wins trigger relief rally. WET (first DTF token) already 6x for presalers.
• Rotation from Hyperliquid: HYPE revenue falls $25M → $15-17M, OI at May lows. HyENA with stronger USDe incentives (12% APY) and Lighter gaining traction. “Next Hyperliquid” narrative emerging.
• NIGHT token launch: Supported by Binance, Bybit Launchpool (50M NIGHT rewards), Kraken. Major Cardano catalyst. First 48 hours typically volatile with heavy volume.
• Institutional stablecoin rails: Circle x Bybit partnership, Aleo releasing USDCx (private stablecoin), multiple compliance rails activating. Watch Morpho, Aave, and institutional liquidity hubs.
Market Summary
• Loss aversion driving governance shifts: Jupiter community forcing accountability is classic loss crystallization. If execution improves, contrarian long setup emerges.
• Certainty premium rising: Vanguard + major banks signal crypto entering “respectable allocation” era. Institutional flows create valuation floor but compress volatility.
• Solana reflexivity flywheel accelerating: USDC 16B → higher TVL → more devs → ETF filings → more USDC. Fundamentals moving because belief is compounding.
• Hyperliquid mean-reversion risk: Revenue/OI slowdown vs user growth implies saturation. Market had priced in endless expansion—alternatives now asymmetric.
• RWA rally becoming non-correlated: Tokenized assets growing regardless of crypto conditions. Signals structural shift: crypto as financial rails, not just speculation.
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Result is out as expected. Waiting for the speech of Mr Powell in 30 mins
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• At 08:30 AM ET the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released.
Expectation: 221K
Previous: 191K
• Later today, U.S. prosecutors will announce the court decision in the case where they requested a 12 year prison sentence for Do Kwon the co founder of Terraform Labs.
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TERRA LUNA FOUNDER WAS SENTENCED TO 15 YEARS IN PRISON.
$UST WAS ONE OF THE BIGGEST SCAMS IN CRYPTO, TOTALING OVER $40B IN LOSSES.
$UST WAS ONE OF THE BIGGEST SCAMS IN CRYPTO, TOTALING OVER $40B IN LOSSES.
Sitting at a tea stall, you see hundreds of people coming and going every day. How many of them, dressed normally, can you actually remember? But people with unusual behavior or distinctive clothing stay in your memory. For example, if many motorcycles pass together, you will remember it. You will also remember why so many motorcycles came at once.
The same thing happens on the blockchain. There are unusual events—transactions that stand out. Tools like Lookonchain publicly share many of these activities. By analyzing such transactions, you can often understand the direction and behavior of the market.
https://t.me/lookonchainchannel
You can also use Arkham and become a blockchain detective yourself—completely free. #know
The same thing happens on the blockchain. There are unusual events—transactions that stand out. Tools like Lookonchain publicly share many of these activities. By analyzing such transactions, you can often understand the direction and behavior of the market.
https://t.me/lookonchainchannel
You can also use Arkham and become a blockchain detective yourself—completely free. #know
Telegram
Lookonchain
Please contact @lookonchainsupport if you have any questions.
We will never DM you first!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lookonchain
We will never DM you first!
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lookonchain
The U.S. Unemployment Rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, worse than estimates for 4.5%.
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The reason that Quantum Computers will not break Bitcoin encryption (because it is not a thing at all)
The myth of the so-called Quantum Apocalypse of Bitcoin is based on the rudimentary misconception of the principle of the operating protocol. The following is the technical explanation in brief that illustrates why quantum computers are a migration issue, as opposed to the death of migration.
Authorization vs. Secrecy
Bitcoin is a publicly accessible registry that implements digital signatures- ECDSA or Schnorr ECDSA and not encryption. No secret information to break. The actual threat is the signature forgery. The algorithm of Shor could have a quantum machine to recreate a private key based on an already revealed public key, which means it can sign a fraudulent transaction.
The Hashing Shield
Protection of most BTC addresses is thought to be by hash (SHA-256 and RipeMD-160). The blockchain does not have a public key until you spend your coins. This restricts the attack window to the period that a transaction is waiting on the mempool - about ten minutes. An attacker would have to break the key and pay more than your transaction fee by the time that one block is mined before you can steal your money.
The 6.7 Million BTC “Risq” List
Not every coin is being hashed. About 6.7NTM BTC are in danger:
P2PK Legacy Outputs - initial coins minted by Satoshi that embed the public key on the blockchain.
- Address Reuse: any funds left behind or upcoming at the address where a public key is revealed is exposed.
- Taproot (P2TR): these endpoints reveal a modified public key and thus can be attacked in a cold manner, in which the attacker can just work out the key over years.
The Bottleneck of the Physical Qubit.
To correct the errors with around 317million physical qubits, it would take approximately ten minutes to crack a 256-bit elliptic-curve encryption key in a ten-minute window. Hardware that is currently available has much less than 2000 qubits. Even the hopeful ones place us 10-20 years away before we can have a machine that can pose a threat to the mempool of Bitcoin.
The Post‑Quantum Path
Bitcoin is not a fixed protocol. Post-quantum cryptography is already being discussed as having transitioned via:
- BIP360: suggested Pay to Quantum-Resistant Hash.
- Lamport/Winternitz signatures: one-time schemes which are resistant to the algorithm described by Shor.
Conclusion
The quantum computer is not the biggest threat to your BTC, and it is address reuse. This privacy is ensured by the fact that at the time you spend, you already know your public key hashed and concealed, which prevents the future by current computational limits.
Bitcoin cryptography quantum cryptography BTC blockchain tech deep dive technologian cryptography.
The myth of the so-called Quantum Apocalypse of Bitcoin is based on the rudimentary misconception of the principle of the operating protocol. The following is the technical explanation in brief that illustrates why quantum computers are a migration issue, as opposed to the death of migration.
Authorization vs. Secrecy
Bitcoin is a publicly accessible registry that implements digital signatures- ECDSA or Schnorr ECDSA and not encryption. No secret information to break. The actual threat is the signature forgery. The algorithm of Shor could have a quantum machine to recreate a private key based on an already revealed public key, which means it can sign a fraudulent transaction.
The Hashing Shield
Protection of most BTC addresses is thought to be by hash (SHA-256 and RipeMD-160). The blockchain does not have a public key until you spend your coins. This restricts the attack window to the period that a transaction is waiting on the mempool - about ten minutes. An attacker would have to break the key and pay more than your transaction fee by the time that one block is mined before you can steal your money.
The 6.7 Million BTC “Risq” List
Not every coin is being hashed. About 6.7NTM BTC are in danger:
P2PK Legacy Outputs - initial coins minted by Satoshi that embed the public key on the blockchain.
- Address Reuse: any funds left behind or upcoming at the address where a public key is revealed is exposed.
- Taproot (P2TR): these endpoints reveal a modified public key and thus can be attacked in a cold manner, in which the attacker can just work out the key over years.
The Bottleneck of the Physical Qubit.
To correct the errors with around 317million physical qubits, it would take approximately ten minutes to crack a 256-bit elliptic-curve encryption key in a ten-minute window. Hardware that is currently available has much less than 2000 qubits. Even the hopeful ones place us 10-20 years away before we can have a machine that can pose a threat to the mempool of Bitcoin.
The Post‑Quantum Path
Bitcoin is not a fixed protocol. Post-quantum cryptography is already being discussed as having transitioned via:
- BIP360: suggested Pay to Quantum-Resistant Hash.
- Lamport/Winternitz signatures: one-time schemes which are resistant to the algorithm described by Shor.
Conclusion
The quantum computer is not the biggest threat to your BTC, and it is address reuse. This privacy is ensured by the fact that at the time you spend, you already know your public key hashed and concealed, which prevents the future by current computational limits.
Bitcoin cryptography quantum cryptography BTC blockchain tech deep dive technologian cryptography.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump expected to name new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell by first week of January 2026.
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EXPECTED: 223K
ACTUAL: 214K
BULLISH
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Meta
• Institutions entrench BTC: Wells Fargo adds $383M via ETFs, JPMorgan accepts BTC collateral, Kazakhstan pushes BIS crypto legalization. BTC shifting from speculation → financial infrastructure.
• Regulated markets take lead: ETF options OI now exceeds offshore perps (Binance/Bybit/OKX combined). Maturation comes with liquidity fragmentation risk.
• Infra efficiency race: Monad hits 1.7M addresses in 30 days. Celestia data costs ($0.07/MB) crush Ethereum blobs ($3.83). Cost now driving adoption.
• Trust cracks emerging: Trust Wallet hack ($6M), Flow halted after $3.9M exploit. Binance refunds victims—exchanges absorbing reputational liability.
Opportunities
• Lighter TGE window: Points OTC $2.5–3.0. Market repriced TGE to 500–700M FDV vs earlier $2B+. Announcement expected soon.
• Solstice (USX) depeg: Trading $0.92–0.94 despite claimed 1:1 backing. Either arbitrage or reflexivity death spiral—binary setup.
• Hyperliquid whale risk: Single $744M long = ~10% OI. Liquidation would cascade. Persistence signals conviction or trapped liquidity.
• Brevis ZK infra: 37% ecosystem, only 3.5% airdrop. $9M Uniswap grant. Quiet infra accumulation play.
• Sei institutional traction: $200M+ flows via KAIO. Preinstalled on 170M Xiaomi devices from 2026. USDC margin live in EEA.
Market Take
• Pumpfun prints revenue ($50M/day) while token -80% from ATH
• BTC exchange balances at cycle lows, price flat → demand absorbed OTC
• ETF options dominance signals volatility positioning, not FOMO
• Solana MEV lawsuit introduces unpriced regulatory risk to throughput models
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Happy New Year All 🎉🎉🎉