Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
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๐Ÿ“Œ Why Eliminating Iranโ€™s Supreme Leader Was a Strategic Gamble

The reported U.S.โ€“Israel strike that killed Iranโ€™s Ayatollah has not only been a dramatic battlefield event but has reshaped the geopolitical and economic landscape across the Middle East.

1.Escalation Rather Than Collapse
Instead of collapsing Iranโ€™s ability to retaliate, the strike triggered immediate counter-attacks and a broad regional response, expanding the conflict beyond its original scope.

2. Iranโ€™s Mosaic Defense Structure
Iranโ€™s command and influence are distributed across multiple regional actors, proxy networks, and decentralized chains of control. Removing one leader has not stopped operations - it activated pre-planned responses across many fronts.

3. Asymmetric and Distributed Retaliation
Iran and aligned groups are responding with a mix of missiles, drones, cyber actions, and proxy strikes across multiple countries. These dispersed attacks are harder for the U.S. and Israel to contain without further escalation.

4. Diplomatic and Legitimacy Costs

Killing a sitting supreme leader generated strong global reactions, including condemnation from major powers like China, which accused the strike of violating sovereignty and international norms. This weakens U.S./Israeli diplomatic standing.

5. Global Energy Disruption Already Underway
Iran has effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, proclaiming that any vessel attempting to pass will be attacked. This strait is critical for nearly one-fifth of global oil and gas exports. Shipping has largely halted and insurers have withdrawn coverage, pushing up freight costs and energy prices worldwide.

6. Martyrdom Effect Has Already Appeared
The killing of the Ayatollah during Ramadan has been portrayed by Iranian state media in religious terms, with broadcasters and officials linking his death to martyrdom and revenge. This has triggered demonstrations, increased nationalist sentiment, and reinforced hardline narratives, rather than weakening them.

๐Ÿ”Ž Assessment
The operation may have delivered tactical satisfaction, but strategically it has created a mosaic battlefield: a broader conflict that is harder to control, generates stronger asymmetric responses, produces global economic shocks, and fuels political narratives that bolster Iranian resistance rather than undermine it.
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โš ๏ธ The narrative circulating in parts of Western media, that Iranโ€™s actions are random or desperate, reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of Tehranโ€™s long-term strategic doctrine.

For decades, the Islamic Republic has openly discussed scenarios including the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. What we are witnessing is not improvisation. It is the activation of contingencies embedded within Iranian military planning over years.

The retaliation pattern is deliberate. ๐ŸŽฏ

Iranian drones and missiles have not been scattered blindly. They have focused on infrastructure underpinning US military operations in the region:
โ€ข Air bases
โ€ข Naval facilities
โ€ข Diplomatic sites


But beneath the visible layer lies something more structural.
There appears to be a correlation between targeted (or threatened) locations and sites where the US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) maintains fuel storage and supply contracts.

Key nodes include:
โ€ข Bahrain
โ€ข Duqm (Oman)
โ€ข Jebel Ali (UAE)
โ€ข Mesaieed (Qatar)
โ€ข Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) - supplying fuel to King Abdulaziz & Prince Sultan Air Bases, where US aircraft operate

Until recently, Fujairah stood as a critical outlier.

Fujairah is one of the worldโ€™s most significant oil and refined product storage hubs, comparable to ARA, Singapore, and the US Gulf Coast. It holds nearly 18 million cubic metres of crude storage, much of it under commercial contracts.

More importantly:

It serves as the outlet for a major pipeline enabling roughly 1.8 million barrels per day of Emirati crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Today:
๐Ÿš A drone was intercepted over Fujairah.
๐Ÿ”ฅ A fire broke out in the Oil Industry Zone.
โš ๏ธ VTTI declared force majeure at its facility.

Now Fujairah, and Omanโ€™s Salalah, another DLA-linked supply node appear to be entering the targeting calculus.

Damage so far appears limited.
But the signal is unmistakable.
Iranโ€™s approach is not symbolic. It is structural.

The apparent objective:
To disrupt US operational depth by targeting the industrial and logistical backbone sustaining air and naval deployments.

Grounding US aircraft entirely may be ambitious.
But:

โ€ข Increasing friction
โ€ข Raising operational costs
โ€ข Complicating fuel logistics
โ€ข Forcing redistribution of supply chains

- are all rational military strategies.

This is not about spectacle. It is about logistics. ๐Ÿ›ข
And in modern warfare, logistics decide endurance.


Watch Djibouti closely. ๐Ÿ‘€
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๐ŸšจThe Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) station at the U.S. Embassy ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ in โ€‹Saudi Arabia ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ was hit on Monday by โ€Œa Iranian drone.

โญMeanwhile, Pakistani Deputy PM & ISPR ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ were claiming that Iranians๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท stopped attacking Saudis as per their request.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
๐ŸšจMeet Junaid Mukhtar who runs Tactical Tipu account on X. He is spreading too much propaganda against India this month. He works with ISPR Propaganda Cell. โญHe is owner of Crafts n Creation, Shop # 39 Mini Plaza Kamra Cantt, MRF Colony, Attock, Pakistan.โ€ฆ
โœISPR asset Tactical Tipu is back after 4 months and started spreading misinformation.

Name: Junaid Mukhtar
CNIC Number: 37101280071ร—ร—
Mobile Number: +923335932539 & +923365505504

Address:
House No. 1834 CBK, Madani Street, Near Qutba Mor, Kamra Cantt Tehsil / District Attock.

PS: Paaijan has shifted to new House.
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โ—Humble Request ๐Ÿ™

โญGuys, never get emotional during War. Both sides (USA, Israel & Iran) are fighting war ruthlessly. No one is showing mercy to anyone. Why some Indian Defence Journalist were silent when USA killed 167 school girls in Iran during initial wave of attack?

โญIranian Ship incident happened near Sri Lankan Waters. Iran has treaty with China for defence & oil supply. What is China doing to save them for last 10 days? Both Iran & Venezuela bought Chinese Air Defence system, which failed miserably.

โญYou should remember proxies of Iran, Houthis were firing missiles on Merchant Navy Ships for last 3 years. Many innocent civilians were killed. They never thought that people who were not even fighting wars will get killed. Indian Navy had to deploy more than 10+ Warships to save innocent civilians on those merchant ships.


PS: IT'S NOT OUR WAR, WE SHOULD STAY NEUTRAL.
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๐Ÿšจ Al-Qaeda-Linked โ€œCyber Jihad Movementโ€ Calls for Global Cyber Attacks

๐Ÿ“„ A statement released by the Cyber Jihad Movement (CJM), an IT group linked to the al-Qaeda ecosystem, calls on Muslims worldwide to join a so-called โ€œglobal cyber jihad.โ€

๐ŸŽฏ Targets named:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan โ€ข ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India โ€ข Several Arab governments

๐Ÿ’ป The group urges cyber operations aimed at financial disruption and attacks on government institutions, financial systems, and businesses.

โš”๏ธ The statement also claims support for the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, while indicating potential cooperation with pro-Iranian hacker groups amid the ongoing Iranโ€“US tensions.

๐Ÿ“… Statement dated: March 4, 2026
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โš ๏ธ MUST READ | What the War Is Really Showing

A growing body of battlefield assessments suggests that the ongoing Iranโ€“USโ€“Israel confrontation is producing outcomes that few policymakers anticipated.

In just the first few days of the conflict, Iranian strikes reportedly targeted several major U.S. military facilities across the Gulf region, including installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. These are not ordinary bases. They are among the largest and most expensive military installations ever built, developed over decades at a cost running into hundreds of billions of dollars, forming the backbone of U.S. power projection in West Asia.

Some reports indicate that advanced radar systems worth hundreds of millions of dollars each, missile defense infrastructure, and critical logistical facilities have been damaged or forced offline. Even partial disruption of these systems significantly weakens surveillance and early-warning capabilities across the region.

What makes the situation unusual is the lack of battlefield imagery. Previous wars such as the 1991 Gulf War or the Iraq War were accompanied by constant footage of air operations, precision strikes, and aerial dominance. In the current conflict, there is almost no publicly available footage showing sustained American control of Iranian airspace, which has raised questions among analysts.

At the same time, maritime security in the Persian Gulf has deteriorated sharply. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively under Iranian missile coverage, commercial shipping and naval operations face enormous risk. Nearly 20 percent of global oil trade normally passes through this chokepoint, meaning even temporary disruption sends shockwaves through global energy markets.

Iranโ€™s military doctrine also complicates conventional warfare. Over decades, the country has invested heavily in deep underground missile complexes, storage facilities, and command networks spread across a vast territory. This infrastructure was designed specifically to survive air campaigns and continue operating even during sustained bombardment.

Geography further compounds the challenge. Iran is more than four times the size of Iraq, with mountainous terrain and a population exceeding 85 million, making any ground invasion scenario extremely complex and costly.

Assessment

What began as a high-impact military operation may now be evolving into a protracted and economically disruptive conflict. The costs are not limited to destroyed equipment or damaged bases. They include energy market instability, global trade disruption, and the potential reshaping of military power balances across West Asia.

If the conflict continues to escalate, the strategic consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield.

More analysis to follow.
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๐Ÿ“Œ Why the U.S. Eased Russian Oil Sanctions for India

The recent U.S. decision to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian oil supplies to India is being interpreted by some analysts not as a geopolitical favor, but as a move driven by immediate military logistics.

With the ongoing war involving Iran, several strategic installations across the Gulf region are either under attack or at risk. Military bases, ports, oil facilities, and refineries in multiple GCC countries have reportedly been targeted or are operating under heightened threat. This situation complicates the ability of U.S. naval and air assets in the region to refuel and sustain operations from their usual logistics hubs.

At the same time, regional instability has expanded beyond the Gulf. Rising tensions and clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have created additional uncertainty around military infrastructure in Pakistan. Reports of drone activity targeting facilities linked to Western use have further highlighted the vulnerability of traditional supply points.

In this environment, the U.S. appears to require a large and relatively stable regional partner capable of supporting logistical fuel flows for military operations. India, with its large refining capacity, significant oil imports, and strategic geographic position, fits that role.

When announcing the temporary waiver allowing India to continue purchasing Russian crude, U.S. officials described India as an โ€œessential partner.โ€ The phrasing suggests a pragmatic, situational arrangement rather than a long-term strategic concession.

The waiver appears structured to ensure supply continuity rather than provide economic advantage. India can maintain access to crude needed for domestic energy security and refining operations, while global market dynamics and price pressures limit the potential for extraordinary financial gains.

In short, the waiver reflects wartime logistics and energy security calculations rather than a shift in broader sanction policy. Its duration will likely depend on how long regional instability continues to disrupt normal energy and military supply chains in the Gulf.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
Why some Indian Defence Journalist were silent when USA killed 167 school girls in Iran during initial wave of attack?
๐ŸšจUS military investigators believe US Air force was responsible for strikes on an Iranian girlsโ€™ school that killed as many as 165 students and teachers.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
๐ŸšจJaish-e-Mohammed ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ has started  Fundraising Campaign "Infaq fi Sabilillah. โญMoney raised under zakat, sadaqah and other donations will be used for Terror activities. Jaish Terrorist who donated money were given receipt.
๐ŸšจMasood Ilyas Kashmiri, Jaish-e-Mohammed ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Senior Commander attended a rally in Rawalakot on 24th February.

โญIn his Speech he said that Jaish is actively raising money for Terror activities during the Ramadan through their Markaz. He also said Jaish is involved in terror activities in India, Kandhar and Gaza.

โญHe also said that money raised by Jaish is sent to Gaza & Hamas terrorist.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
๐ŸšจMasood Ilyas Kashmiri, Jaish-e-Mohammed ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Senior Commander attended a rally in Rawalakot on 24th February. โญIn his Speech he said that Jaish is actively raising money for Terror activities during the Ramadan through their Markaz. He also said Jaish is involvedโ€ฆ
โœProof of money that is being raised by Jaish-e-Mohammed ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ in Crypto. On 3rd March 2026, money was being sent to Hamas Terrorist & for publicity of Jaish in Gaza.

โ—They sent 1650 USDT which is equal to 4,61,000 PKR
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โ—Terrorist Group & Civilian Administration Fusion in Pakistan ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ

โœSenior Sialkot Police officers visited Lashkar-e-Taiba Training Camp for meeting & Iftar Party. Every institution of Pakistan works together to produce Terrorist.
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๐ŸšจTruth about IRIS Dena Incident

โœIranian ship IRIS Dena ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท was sailing towards Sri Lanka ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ on a diplomatic invite, but the warship had to abort the journey and โ€œremain in international watersโ€ as the invitation was revoked by Srilanka after tensions ratcheted up between the USA ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ & Iran ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท

โœ11-hour wait in the Indian Ocean made the warship vulnerable to US strikes, and it was torpedoed by a US submarine on 4 March, sinking it within minutes. 

โœSri Lankan Navyโ€™s representatives reportedly invited the Iranian frigate to conduct a courtesy port call, which is a routine gesture of goodwill intended to deepen maritime cooperation.

โœThereafter, Sri Lankan officials concluded that allowing an Iranian warship amid the conflict would carry diplomatic risks. Therefore, the earlier invitation was reversed, and IRIS Dena was instructed not to proceed towards its planned destination. By the time the message reached the ship, the Iranian vessel had nearly reached 40 nautical miles south of the port of Galle.

โœThe delay in providing port access to the Iranian Frigate left it floating on the open waters for approximately eleven hours. That long waiting exposed the vessel to hostile action.

Credits:  https://www.jaffnamonitor.com/featured/invited-then-turned-away-the-11-hour-wait-that-preceded-iris-denas-sinking/
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โœIn solidarity with @OsintTV
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โœTaliban has also become Self Reliant (Atmanirbhar). Bad days ahead for Paijans๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
๐ŸšจLashkar-e-Taiba has established their dedicated IT Cell in Islamabad ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ. โญIt has capacity of 80 computers. It will be used mostly for their publicity and online radicalization of potential terror sympathizer.
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๐ŸšจPakistan National Government ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ & Terrorist Group Nexus ๐Ÿค

โญSardar Md Yousuf Gujjar who is Minister for Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony visited Lashkar-e-Taiba IT Cell Complex & Markaz Quba in Islamabad. He was accompanied by Saifullah Kasuri, LeT Deputy Chief.

โญMaybe interfaith Harmony in Pakistan means harmony between Pak Army, Puppet Government & Terrorist Groups.
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Third Eye OSINT & Analysis
โ—โ—Jaish-e-Mohammed funding from Gulf. โญJust take a small example of Arshad Ali of Jaish/KT who was killed in Basantgarh, Udhampur encounter last year. โญHis family has large business in Gulf and Pakistan. Still, they sent him to spread terrorism in India.โ€ฆ
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โœJaish-e-Mohammed Deputy Talha al Saif exposes the reality of FATF monitoring in Pakistan ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ, he claims Jaish is raising money through every means like crying & begging.

โญHe also states the role of Chaudhary Family of Daska in JeM Terror Funding. In 2024, Arshad Ali of Daska was killed in Basantgath encounter.
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