Overall, it was a surprisingly steady auction—so steady, in fact, you’d think nobody’s noticed the world is currently being run like a group project led by “ educated, yet idiots.” In an era of wars, chaos, and policy choices that look suspiciously like they were brainstormed on a napkin at 2 a.m., the once-mythical “risk-free asset” is starting to feel about as risk-free as deep-fried turkey near an open flame.

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In yet another batch of “freshly outdated” government data delayed by Washington’s favorite circus act—the shutdown—September retail sales eked out a lukewarm 0.2% gain, while consumer sentiment slid to a seven-month low as Americans worried about jobs, prices, and possibly everything in between. Big-ticket spending softened, bargain-hunting surged, and yet retailers somehow keep raising guidance, proving that shoppers may be anxious… but not anxious enough to skip brands they love. With inflation still sticky, policymakers still arguing, and key data still missing, the economy looks like it’s easing from a confident stride into more of an awkward shuffle—powered increasingly by wealthy households, while everyone else tightens the seatbelt and hopes for smoother numbers ahead.

Adjusted for inflation, retail sales slipped 0.1% in September, leaving them essentially unchanged since March 2025 and far below their April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail spending peaks alongside the S&P 500–to–oil ratio — a metric now on the verge of breaking below its seven-year moving average, a signal that has reliably preceded recessions. Equity markets, however, seem perfectly happy to keep whistling past the graveyard.

In a nutshell,retail demand is losing steam, recession indicators are stirring, and yet equity markets march on as if nothing’s cracking beneath their feet.

US producer prices rose a mild 0.3% in September — just enough for the “inflation is dead” crowd to do a victory lap — while Core PPI barely budged at 0.1%, hitting its lowest YoY reading since mid-2024. Energy drove most of the increase, but with oil prices nosediving since then, that bump may vanish faster than a Fed forecast. The real plot twist? Intermediate demand is heating back up, hinting that the inflation ghost might not be done haunting us after all.

As of late September, the spread between Core PPI and CPI has climbed back to its highest level since July 2024 — a dynamic that could provide a tailwind for equity valuations and future returns once the FOMO-driven AI excesses finish unwinding.

In a nutshell, Inflation looks dead on the surface, restless underneath, and ready to hand equities a boost once the AI tourists pack up.

As investors shuffle through airport security on their way to Thanksgiving turkeys, the U.S. Treasury quietly served up its own pre-holiday dish: $70 billion in 5-year notes at a 3.562% yield — the lowest since last September’s rate-cut kickoff. The auction even tailed the WI by 0.5 bps, marking the fifth tail in six tries… proving that while travelers may dread long lines, bond buyers seem perfectly happy standing in one.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.41 — technically better than last month’s 2.38 and the highest since April — though in a metric that usually dances in a 5-bps range, that’s not exactly a showstopper. Behind the scenes, foreign buyers (Indirects) slipped to 61.35% from 66.84%, falling below their recent 64.7% average, while Directs crept up to 27.6% from 23.9%. Dealers were left holding 11.0% of the allocation — more than last month’s 9.3% but still shy of their 10.4% norm. In other words, the auction was a polite dinner party: slightly better behaved than usual, but no fireworks.

In short, it was another “meh” auction, as more investors wake up to the inconvenient truth: under the reign of what one might call “Educated Yet Idiots,” the real danger isn’t in stocks or commodities — it’s in the so-called risk-free assets, which aren’t risk-free anymore.

While Donald Copperfield takes a victory lap as “Peacemaker-in-Chief” for the NATO-made Ukraine fiasco, he’s already teeing up his next trick: picking a fight with Venezuela. Caracas declared itself at war with the U.S., Donald shrugged and promised to skip the paperwork and just take out smugglers, and Washington conveniently labeled Maduro a terrorist. Then came the plot twist — Maduro has heavyweight friends. Xi sent him a birthday greeting that read like a mutual-defense clause, Putin called him a “dear friend,” and China accused the U.S. of violating the UN Charter. Just like that, Venezuela morphed from a regional sideshow into the latest arena for great-power puppeteering.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3334007/xi-jinping-pledges-support-nicolas-maduro-and-criticises-us-actions-venezuela

China remains one of Venezuela’s top trading partners, and Beijing has no intention of letting the West treat regime change like a one-click export. Condemning U.S. aggression is one thing; offering boots, bullets, or budget lines is another — and China hasn’t crossed that line yet. Still, by signalling its readiness to push back, China is helping set the stage for a wider strategic game: stretch Western militaries thin across multiple fronts, sap their bandwidth, and force them into a long, expensive chess match they can’t easily win.

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/exports-by-country

In a nutshell, Venezuela just went from regional footnote to global flashpoint, as China and Russia step in behind Maduro, turning Donald Copperfield’s latest foreign-policy stunt into the opening move of a much bigger geopolitical chess match.

As we gather with family and friends this week, I want to extend my sincere gratitude to all of you — the readers, thinkers, skeptics, and market navigators who make The Macro Butler community what it is. Your engagement, curiosity, and willingness to look beyond headlines are what keep this publication sharp and growing.

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Thank you for your trust, your loyalty, and your sharp questions.

Wishing you and your loved ones a warm, restful, and prosperous Thanksgiving.

The Macro Butler

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As the Jubilee winds down, China’s November PMI shows the economy wobbling like a teacup on a rickety table: services tumbled into contraction, manufacturing and construction remain stuck in the doldrums, and consumption hints at a further nap. The official manufacturing PMI barely nudged to 49.2—still shy of the magical 50 that separates expansion from contraction—while the non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5, marking the first post-reopening contraction. In short, growth may hit the 5% target for the year, but meaningful government support will likely arrive in early 2026, leaving the final weeks of 2025 to the patience of sages… or the stomachs of mandarins.