In a nutshell, China’s economy slams the brakes on consumers and investment, leaving only industrial output to keep the two-speed engine sputtering toward “Make China Great Again.”

While Donald Copperfield miraculously keeps his promises—blocking illegal crossings and deploying ICE and the National Guard to curb chaos unleashed under Sleepy Joe—the UK and France, guided by Malthusian Keynesian wisdom, roll out their grand pilot scheme: the pompously named “One In, One Out.”
For every asylum seeker sent back from the UK to France, one “deserving” newcomer from France may enter—assuming they obey the rules and have a credible claim.

Kabuki immigration at its finest.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwywv34w00ro

How does this “solve” the migrant crisis? It doesn’t. France will process all returned migrants, then send back a few “vetted” ones to the UK—so long as they pass a flimsy security check and haven’t tried to cross illegally before.
Target: single males, the usual “asylum seeker” demographic. UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood hails it as a “breakthrough,” while digital IDs are needed to sort the chaos. By comparison, the previous Rwanda plan spent £700 million and deported… four people. Progress, British style.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/migrants-rwanda-cost-hotels-taxpayer-small-boats-channel-gangs-yvette-cooper-b1172158.html

The Labour Government proudly keeps “Asylum Hotel California” open. Under the so-called “One In, One Out” scheme, migrants are returned to France, funded by UK taxpayers.

Meanwhile, 49,341 intruders crossed in just six months, a 27% rise, 88% arriving by small boat, outsmarting the once-feared British Navy via canoe.

While invoking the ever-looming Russian threat to justify their Malthusian dreams, Europe’s Davos-backed, lame-duck rulers keep cozying up to Russian oil and gas.

In a bold act of forward-looking logic, the EU has decreed that all Russian energy imports must vanish by 2028—after signing new contracts through 2026 and enjoying the old ones until 2028. Peace, prosperity, and coherence, all on schedule—pending the Brussels Bureaucrat’s rubber stamp.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-agrees-gradually-end-russian-gas-imports-by-january-1-2028-2025-10-20/

Cutting Russian gas imports is apparently Europe’s masterstroke of energy strategy—rerouting billions, building infrastructure, and signing deals with barely a plan B. Volatility? Who cares, these bureaucrats are too busy patting themselves on the back. Europe dithers over relying on the U.S., where energy policy flips with every election. Meanwhile, Norway moonlights as the bloc’s top gas supplier, Qatar and Africa sign new LNG deals, and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline quietly creeps.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_imports_of_energy_products_-_latest_developments

Energy is power. Power drives capital. And Europe, in its infinite wisdom, has successfully sent capital packing—thanks to its heroic crusade against Russian energy and its zeal for net-zero fantasies.

The Macro Butler sat down for a no-holds-barred conversation with Mario ZNA to uncover how the Malthusian masterminds of Davos are diligently scripting Europe’s slow descent into demographic decline—one regulation at a time—while the bureaucrats of Brussels, ever faithful to their technocratic creed, prepare the continent for its grand debut in the Digital Gulag, where freedom comes with a QR code and dissent requires two-factor authentication.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-mario-zna-17102025

While hosting the Malthusian “Gouda” from the North Atlantic Terror Organization for what feels like the hundredth episode of their Oval Office soap opera, Donald Copperfield—ever the illusionist—decided to wave his magic wand of sanctions once more at Russia. These “new measures,” we are told, will finally squeeze Moscow into submission, because apparently the last two dozen rounds just needed more belief. Anyone with a faint pulse of historical awareness knows sanctions work about as well as peace talks at a weapons expo. Still, Washington applauds Europe’s zeal in looting frozen Russian assets—so long as the proceeds go toward buying American-made weapons for Kyiv. Nothing says “defending democracy” quite like billing your allies for the ammo.

Donald Copperfield also let slip—courtesy of a hot mic in the Oval Office—that his grand “peace summit” with his Russian counterpart in Budapest has been quietly shelved. The meeting, trumpeted days ago with all the pomp of a royal decree, has now vanished into the same diplomatic fog where truth and strategy go to die.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LReg8dSmmpY

In a nutshell, Donald Copperfield’s latest act of diplomacy saw him conjure yet another round of Russian sanctions while quietly cancelling his grand Budapest “peace summit”—proving once again that illusion, not resolution, is Washington’s true foreign policy.

While Washington’s shutdown circus drags on, the U.S. Treasury quietly slipped out $66 million in a 19-year, 10-month note (CUSIP UN6). The auction’s high yield of 4.506%—up from 3.953% last month—managed to stop through the When-Issued rate by 1.2 bps, marking its first clean win since July after two lackluster, tailing auctions.

The bid-to-cover ratio jumped to 63.6% from 56.4%, though it still trailed the six-auction average of 67.3%. Direct bidders took 26.3%—a touch above their 23.1% norm—while Dealers ended up with 10.0%, roughly matching the 9.6% average.

Overall, this was a surprising auction, as most investors seem unaware that in the coming Trump stagflation—fueled by wars and shortages—the “risk-free” asset is no longer free of risk.

The ninth CPI print of this so-called Jubilee Year made its grand entrance at +0.3% MoM—just cool enough for economists to pretend they saw it coming. Year-on-year inflation tried to look humble at +3.0%, a hair below forecasts but still puffed up from last month’s 2.9%. Energy stole the show again, food kept pace, and goods refused to chill. Services? They barely lifted a finger—slowing from +2.17% to +2.09% in what can only be described as the world’s most boring coffee break.

Core CPI in September also came in a tick softer at +0.2% MoM—slightly weaker than August but still miles from the Fed’s mythical 2% target. On a YoY basis, it flatlined at 3.0%, the economic equivalent of pressing snooze on inflation. Core services—now 76% of the inflation buffet—cooled to 2.63% YoY, while core goods stubbornly refused to cooperate for the sixth month in a row. That makes 64 consecutive months of core CPI gains. But don’t worry—only people who eat, drive, or breathe should care.

A real treat for the “inflation is dead” fan club: Owners’ Equivalent Rent—the undead zombie of CPI—shuffled in at +3.8% YoY, barely cooler than August’s +4.0%. It’s the “coldest” reading since December 2021, which is a bit like bragging your fever dropped when you are on the way to the ICU.

And just to keep the propaganda machine humming that “inflation is a problem of the past,” SuperCore CPI—the Fed’s favorite vanity metric—came in at 3.18% YoY, its first tiny deceleration after four months of reheating. Translation: not a victory lap, just a smoke break. But sure, inflation’s dead—if you squint hard enough, ignore rent, food, goods, and reality, and take another generous hit of pure, uncut ‘hopium’.

September’s CPI confirmed what anyone with a shopping cart already knew: the Trump Reflation Express is chugging along as the US economy is heading into the ‘Trump Stagflation’. While the “Manipulator in Chief” and his Fed sidekick pop champagne over their imaginary 2% target, real inflation is still jogging around 3.2% YoY. But sure, let’s call it a win—nothing screams success like shrinking margins and taxing consumers with a grin.

Instead of daydreaming about 2% inflation like it’s a Disney fairy tale, seasoned investors—unlike the PhD troupe at the Fed—can actually count:
• To hit that mythical target, CPI would need to moonwalk below 0% every month—good luck pulling that off in a tariff-choked, WW3-flirting world.
• At the current 0.2%+ prints, we’re gliding toward 3.5%–4.5% CPI by year-end.
And when that reality check hits, not even Donald Copperfield sawing the “Central Banker in Chief” in half will hide the fact that cutting rates into an inflationary boom might be the Fed’s dumbest magic trick yet.