Overall, it was a softish auction — hardly shocking when wars are multiplying faster than Treasury press releases. More investors are finally waking up to the inconvenient truth: the so-called “risk-free” asset isn’t exactly free of risk anymore.

In a hot-mic Oval Office moment, the Warmonger-in-Chief confessed he’s “sort of made a decision” on shipping long-range Tomahawks to Ukraine, then helpfully added he first needs to ask the Cokeheads from Kiyv where they’d point them. If approved, Western analysts say some 3,500 military sites fall inside a >1,600 km strike envelope — a capability that can retarget mid-flight via satellite links and sip real-time recon while skirting air-defence bubbles.

Tomahawks aren’t invincible (they’re subsonic and AWACS-visible), and terrain, layered air defences and EW matter — but even a 1,500 km practical reach leaves plenty of targets.

As the warmongering Malthusian from Ukraine — generously sponsored by the men of Davos — keeps trying to turn a regional war into World War III, Kyiv launched long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory.

Authorities in Western Siberia’s Tyumen region reported downing three drones near an oil refinery, marking the deepest Ukrainian incursion since the war began. Locals posted videos of fire trucks racing toward the Antipinsky refinery — one of Russia’s largest — though officials insist all is calm, no explosions, no fires, nothing to see here. Two mid-air blasts and mobile outages suggest otherwise. Tyumen, by the way, sits 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine — proof that in today’s “peacekeeping” era, the Ministry of War has excellent range.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-target-oil-infrastructure-in-siberia-over-2000-km-away-from-frontline/

Donald Copperfield surely knows that handing over Tomahawks would vaporize whatever’s left of diplomatic dialogue with Moscow. But this is a leader famous for abrupt mood swings — one day a peacemaker, the next a pyromaniac — making his “thinking” less a strategy and more a weather forecast: unpredictable, stormy, and occasionally self-inflicted.

After enjoying some mooncakes during the Mid-Autumn Festival, The Macro Butler rolled out of bed at dawn to join BFM 89.9, dissecting the latest twists in Europe’s never-ending political circus.

He also explored how the “Money AI-st” could spectacularly implode, triggering a global scramble from energy-hungry sectors to energy-producing winners.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-08102025

The Macro Butler pulled up a chair with Steve Yang from Natural Resource Stocks to unpack how modern wars are turbo-charging global de-dollarization — and why gold, the dollar, and commodities will all rally at the same time (yes, economic physics just broke).

Together, they explore how the world’s financial gravity is shifting toward the Russia-China-India triumvirate, with Hong Kong auditioning for New York’s old role as the planet’s money hub.

Grab a coffee, polish your gold bars, and enjoy the show.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-natural-resource-stocks-4f3

The latest FOMC minutes were about as thrilling as a cup of chamomile tea before bedtime — but at least the Fed finally hit the “cut” button. Almost everyone backed a 25-bps trim in September, with one overachiever pushing for 50. Half the committee now sees two more cuts by end-2025, while the rest can’t decide if inflation’s going up, down, or sideways. GDP projections were revised higher, stocks stayed near record highs, and farmers are still grumpy about low crop prices. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet runoff is draining liquidity faster than the institution drains market confidence, with reserves dipping below $3 trillion. Some officials want to stop tightening soon; others want to shrink the balance sheet until it squeaks. In short: the Fed’s cutting rates, fighting itself, and pretending everything’s fine — business as usual.

The government shutdown has thrown a wrench into the Fed’s “data-dependent” mantra—hard to be data-driven when there’s no data. With key reports like jobless claims, payrolls, and CPI on ice, policymakers are flying blind into the October FOMC meeting. Still, traders seem convinced Jerome & Co. will cut odds of a 25bps trim on Oct. 29 jumped from 75% to 92%, while bets on another cut in December cooled to just above 80%.

In a nutshell, the Fed finally cut rates, can’t agree on what’s next, and is draining liquidity faster than Powell drains market confidence — in other words, just another day at the FOMC.

As the US government shutdown drags on like a bad sequel, the Treasury’s $39B 10-year auction flopped again — pricing at 4.117%, tailing the WI by 0.3bps. It’s the second miss in eight tries, proving even investors are tired of funding D.C.’s never-ending circus.

The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.48% from 2.65%, not the year’s worst but close enough to make the Treasury sweat. Foreign bidders ghosted the auction, with Indirects collapsing from 83.1% to 66.8%, well below average. Meanwhile, Directs stepped in for 24.1% — their biggest grab in 11 years — proving that when foreigners flee, domestic buyers get voluntold to save the show.

Dealers were left holding 9.1% of the auction — a bit below the 10% average but still better than last month’s humiliating 4.2%. Progress, if you squint hard enough.

Overall, it was another lackluster auction — proof that savvy investors are waking up to the reality that in the coming war-fueled inflationary bust, the “risk-free” asset is anything but risk-free.

While the shutdown circus drags on, the US Treasury managed to juggle $22 billion worth of 30-year paper — and almost didn’t drop it. The reopening priced at a 4.734% yield, a hair above last month’s 4.651%, making it the second-lowest since March. It also tailed the 4.730% When Issued by a whopping 0.4bps — the third tail in four auctions. In short: the bond market’s still performing... just not exactly sticking the landing.

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.382 — basically the same as last month’s 2.376, but hey, technically higher! Still, it managed to beat the six-auction average of 2.367%, proving that even in the bond market, mediocrity can be called progress.

The internals were stronger this time: Indirect bidders took 64.5%, up from 62.0% in September and marking the highest share since June. Direct bidders also showed robust participation at 26.9%, leaving Dealers with just 8.7% — the lowest on record, a clear sign of solid demand all else equal.

Overall, despite the modest tail, it was a solid auction. Yet it’s only a matter of time before more investors wake up to the reality that in the coming Trump Stagflation, the so-called “risk-free” asset is anything but free of risk.

Everyone with half a brain knows the USD is Washington’s favourite geopolitical weapon. So, it’s no surprise that the bankrupt, shutdown-prone U.S. government just “offered” Argentina a $20 billion currency swap — a fancy way of saying bribe with printing press attached.
The Treasury vowed to take “exceptional measures” to stabilize markets (translation: panic quietly). But the real kicker? The U.S. actually bought Argentine pesos — a bailout for a country that was supposed to be part of the Global South.
So much for “America First”; it’s starting to look more like “Argentina First, courtesy of Uncle Sam.”

The “Seesawer-in-Chief” of Buenos Aires may have campaigned on ‘Making Argentina Great Again’ and even flirted with his own version of the Doge meme economy — something arguably more needed than in the Washington swamp. But, like Donald Copperfield, he seems to have fallen under the same globalist spell, playing his part in the grand illusion of a world run by the same imperial puppeteers obeying to the ‘Satan-Nyahou’ to spread ‘Pax Judaica’.

While Donald Copperfield keeps busy exporting the American way of peace, he can at least boast about one campaign promise kept — deportations. According to DHS, 600,000 migrants have been escorted out since January 2025, and more than 2 million have packed up voluntarily in under 250 days. Turns out the “Make America Great Again” crowd is finally seeing some exit velocity.