In this context, it’s no surprise that one-week risk reversals in USD/JPY surged to 44 bps, favoring calls over puts, after previously trading 22 bps in favor of the yen — marking the third most bearish reading in three years.

Japan, much like the rest of the Keynesian world, is hurtling toward an inevitable sovereign debt crisis — one accelerated by the steady erosion of public trust in institutions that create crises only to expand their control under the guise of solving them, all in service of the same Malthusian-Keynesian blueprint of financial dependency and soft servitude.

It’s not just public institutions losing the trust of We The People — the legacy media, the self-proclaimed guardian of truth, has been fully exposed as a propaganda arm for political and corporate interests.
According to the latest Gallup poll, only 28% of Americans still have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in newspapers, television, and radio — a number that seems shockingly high given the media’s performance since the pandemic turned newsrooms into echo chambers for the establishment narrative.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/695762/trust-media-new-low.aspx

Just a year ago, 31% of Americans still trusted the media — a number that looks almost nostalgic now. Back in 2020, during the COVID hysteria, 40% still clung to the belief that mainstream outlets were credible. Fast-forward to today: seven in ten Americans say they have little to no confidence in mass media. Of those, 36% admit to having “not very much” trust, and 34% have “none at all.” In other words, the Fourth Estate has officially become the Fourth Entertainment Channel.

Back in the 1970s, nearly 70% of Americans trusted TV, radio, and newspapers — a golden age when Walter Cronkite was “the most trusted man in America.”

By 1997, that trust fell to 53%, slipped below 50% in 2004, and as of mid-September 2025, Gallup reports it’s at an all-time low.
Republicans’ faith in the media has collapsed from 21% in 2015 to just 8% today, while barely half (51%) of Democrats still believe what they hear — the weakest showing since 2016. Independents? They checked out two decades ago; only 27% now trust legacy outlets.

The generational divide is also telling: nearly 70% of Democrats over 65 still cling to the idea of a truthful press, while trust plunges with each younger cohort. Even among Republicans, the elderly show the highest faith at 17%, while middle-aged conservatives (30–49) are down to a vanishing 6%.

Today’s “journalism” is a nonstop barrage — a 24/7 echo chamber that hammers the public with curated narratives at every glance, click, and scroll.

Step outside, and the messaging follows; open your phone, and it multiplies.

Social media has turned every citizen into a wannabe correspondent, replaying the same recycled clips and slogans.
The result? A nation exhausted — not just by the noise, but by the relentless psychological warfare of the establishment’s mockingbird media machine.

While war drums echo, Washington can’t even keep the lights on. Lawmakers squabble over the ever-growing deficit, sparking shutdowns over healthcare spending while funnelling half a billion to PBS/NPR to keep the propaganda flowing. Congress demands raises, bodyguards, and home security, yet Americans face crime without relief. And of course, $437 million goes to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development—because apparently, the U.S. can’t reopen without another handout to Ukraine.

https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know

Apparently, in Washington, dying on the job still pays better than working in the private sector. The latest “temporary” spending patch includes a $174,000 death gratuity for the families of Raul Grijalva (AZ), Gerald Connolly (VA), and Sylvester Turner (TX) — because even in death, Congress insists on being a taxpayer expense.


https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/modern-benefits-make-this-outdated-congressional-perk-obsolete

Why should Americans foot the bill for these partisan perks that serve no one but the political class? Simple: in D.C., fiscal responsibility is as dead as the congressmen they’re paying tribute to.

While the U.S. government remains on self-inflicted vacation, the Treasury somehow still found the lights to issue $58 billion in 3-year paper — because debt never takes a day off. The yield came in at 3.576%, up from last month’s 3.485%, yet still flirting with three-year lows. The auction even stopped 0.8 bps through the 3.584% when-issued — the biggest stop since February. Who says you can’t run a bond market while the government’s out to lunch?

The bid-to-cover came in at 2.66 — a mild dip from last month’s 2.73 but still comfortably above the six-auction average of 2.55. Under the hood, things looked a bit wobbly: Indirects pulled back to 62.7% from 74.2% in September, while Directs suddenly found religion, jumping to 26.6% from 17.4%. That left Dealers holding a measly 10.7% — just shy of a record low. In other words, even in a shutdown, the bond market still manages to surprise — mostly by who’s not showing up.

Overall, it was a softish auction — hardly shocking when wars are multiplying faster than Treasury press releases. More investors are finally waking up to the inconvenient truth: the so-called “risk-free” asset isn’t exactly free of risk anymore.

In a hot-mic Oval Office moment, the Warmonger-in-Chief confessed he’s “sort of made a decision” on shipping long-range Tomahawks to Ukraine, then helpfully added he first needs to ask the Cokeheads from Kiyv where they’d point them. If approved, Western analysts say some 3,500 military sites fall inside a >1,600 km strike envelope — a capability that can retarget mid-flight via satellite links and sip real-time recon while skirting air-defence bubbles.

Tomahawks aren’t invincible (they’re subsonic and AWACS-visible), and terrain, layered air defences and EW matter — but even a 1,500 km practical reach leaves plenty of targets.

As the warmongering Malthusian from Ukraine — generously sponsored by the men of Davos — keeps trying to turn a regional war into World War III, Kyiv launched long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory.

Authorities in Western Siberia’s Tyumen region reported downing three drones near an oil refinery, marking the deepest Ukrainian incursion since the war began. Locals posted videos of fire trucks racing toward the Antipinsky refinery — one of Russia’s largest — though officials insist all is calm, no explosions, no fires, nothing to see here. Two mid-air blasts and mobile outages suggest otherwise. Tyumen, by the way, sits 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine — proof that in today’s “peacekeeping” era, the Ministry of War has excellent range.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-target-oil-infrastructure-in-siberia-over-2000-km-away-from-frontline/

Donald Copperfield surely knows that handing over Tomahawks would vaporize whatever’s left of diplomatic dialogue with Moscow. But this is a leader famous for abrupt mood swings — one day a peacemaker, the next a pyromaniac — making his “thinking” less a strategy and more a weather forecast: unpredictable, stormy, and occasionally self-inflicted.

After enjoying some mooncakes during the Mid-Autumn Festival, The Macro Butler rolled out of bed at dawn to join BFM 89.9, dissecting the latest twists in Europe’s never-ending political circus.

He also explored how the “Money AI-st” could spectacularly implode, triggering a global scramble from energy-hungry sectors to energy-producing winners.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-08102025

The Macro Butler pulled up a chair with Steve Yang from Natural Resource Stocks to unpack how modern wars are turbo-charging global de-dollarization — and why gold, the dollar, and commodities will all rally at the same time (yes, economic physics just broke).

Together, they explore how the world’s financial gravity is shifting toward the Russia-China-India triumvirate, with Hong Kong auditioning for New York’s old role as the planet’s money hub.

Grab a coffee, polish your gold bars, and enjoy the show.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-natural-resource-stocks-4f3

The latest FOMC minutes were about as thrilling as a cup of chamomile tea before bedtime — but at least the Fed finally hit the “cut” button. Almost everyone backed a 25-bps trim in September, with one overachiever pushing for 50. Half the committee now sees two more cuts by end-2025, while the rest can’t decide if inflation’s going up, down, or sideways. GDP projections were revised higher, stocks stayed near record highs, and farmers are still grumpy about low crop prices. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet runoff is draining liquidity faster than the institution drains market confidence, with reserves dipping below $3 trillion. Some officials want to stop tightening soon; others want to shrink the balance sheet until it squeaks. In short: the Fed’s cutting rates, fighting itself, and pretending everything’s fine — business as usual.

The government shutdown has thrown a wrench into the Fed’s “data-dependent” mantra—hard to be data-driven when there’s no data. With key reports like jobless claims, payrolls, and CPI on ice, policymakers are flying blind into the October FOMC meeting. Still, traders seem convinced Jerome & Co. will cut odds of a 25bps trim on Oct. 29 jumped from 75% to 92%, while bets on another cut in December cooled to just above 80%.

In a nutshell, the Fed finally cut rates, can’t agree on what’s next, and is draining liquidity faster than Powell drains market confidence — in other words, just another day at the FOMC.