The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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While Donald Copperfield was busy lecturing generals on his trillion-dollar “Department of War,” Washington quietly shut down the actual government for the first time since 2019. Markets yawned, Wall Street pundits gamed out a two-week pause, and 750,000 federal workers got an unpaid holiday—except the military, who’ll keep working for IOUs. Agencies rolled out their “contingency plans” (translation: museums closed, data stopped flowing, but bombs still fly on time). Call it the “Donald Shutdown” if you like, but the irony writes itself: the empire under the lead of Scrooge McDuck keeps funding war while furloughing its own citizens.
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Fresh from his encore at the globalist circus in New York, the Warmonger-in-Chief proudly declared that the U.S. military will now share intel with the Cokehead-in-Heels from Kyiv—so he can strike deep inside Russia. As if that wasn’t bold enough, he’s still “weighing” whether to gift Tomahawks or Barracudas, because nothing says diplomacy like picking which fireworks to lob at Russia’s energy grid. Don’t worry though—American officials assure us it’s all very responsible.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-provide-ukraine-with-intelligence-missile-strikes-deep-inside-russia-wsj-2025-10-01/
Factories are still in their slow-motion recession, with ISM’s index stuck at 49.1 — technically “contracting,” but in reality, just flatlining in style. Orders slipped back into contraction after a brief one-month sugar high, hiring remains code for “cutting,” and 11 out of 16 industries reported shrinking activity. The cheerleaders are pointing to easing input prices, but that’s less a victory over inflation and more a sign that customers aren’t buying, so suppliers are begging for sales. Tariffs continue to weigh like a dumbbell on nearly every sector, with manufacturers whining about surcharges, border holdups, and vanishing order books. Business leaders dress it up as “uncertain macroeconomic conditions,” but it really means no one wants their overpriced widgets. Sure, production ticked up, and inventories fell, but that’s just factories raiding the pantry while pretending the next feast is on its way.
In short, American manufacturing isn’t bouncing back — it’s practicing how to look busy while slowly starving.
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The US government’s shut down, but don’t worry — Congress still gets paid (and so do their lobbyists). Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release jobs, inflation, or retail sales data, leaving the Fed and investors flying blind. If the shutdown drags past two weeks, brace for a volatility spike and delayed rate cuts. Instead, the Fed gets to rely on ADP’s always reliable (cue laughter) numbers, which just showed a 32,000-job loss in September — a six-sigma miss that makes “worst since March 2023” sound generous. And thanks to ADP’s annual “rebenchmarking,” we learned that 911,000 Biden-era jobs never actually existed.
At the same time, wages aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. Job stayers saw a “boost” from 4.4% to 4.5% — the slowest growth since mid-2021, but hey, progress is progress. Job changers still do better, but even their premium pay is slipping, down to 6.6% from 7.1%.
In a nutshell, Job growth is stalling, pay gains are fading — but don’t worry, Congress still gets a raise.
As the countdown to war theatre continues: the coke-fuelled puppet in Kyiv keeps playing his part, NATO’s gangsters cheer him on, and now Germany—led by a former BlackRock salesman turned chancellor—flirts with invoking a “state of tension,” a constitutional gray zone that’s never been used but sounds perfect for everything from cyber boogeymen to mysterious Baltic cable mishaps. In true Orwellian fashion, nothing says peace like preparing for permanent war and more censorship.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundeswehr-bundesregierung-kiesewetter-spannungsfall-li.3319567?reduced=true
Germany, ever the Rechtsstaat, has its legal safety nets: the Grundgesetz sets strict rules for any government action, with escalating crisis levels—from a “State of Tension” when war looms, to a full-blown “State of Defence” under armed attack, and an “Internal Emergency” for domestic chaos. Only the most severe powers kick in under actual invasion. Across the border, Austria mirrors this with its “voltage state” and “defence state,” prepping for danger while avoiding overreach. Meanwhile, the geopolitical theatre marches on any hope of peace for Ukraine is laughable, as Europe leverages ethnic hatred and proxy sacrifice to weaken Russia, with the Ukrainian Dancer On High Heels playing the dutiful stooge for a handful of silver. War, bureaucracy, and spectacle—the new European pastime.

https://americangerman.institute/2025/02/the-state-of-tension/
Having shed the mask of “Peace Maker in Chief,” Donald Copperfield now parades as the “Warmonger in Chief,” also proving that MAHA was never more than a political illusion — a sop to the masses to regain the Oval Office and continue the Malthusian globalist script of his predecessors.
In the latest chapter of doublespeak, a $70 billion deal is heralded as a victory for lowering drug costs. In reality, it grants Pfizer a three-year exemption from tariffs, so long as it repatriates its production — a concession disguised as reform, a bargain struck in the shadows of corporate power.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-announces-drug-pricing-deal-pfizer
MAHA, once sold as the heir to MAGA — a promise to put nation above empire — has revealed itself as betrayal.
The illusion is broken, and with it, the last thread of unity.
Social unrest grows, the Empire rots from within, and the second American civil war has already begun. The split into three nations is no longer speculation but inevitability.

https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/the-maha-betrayal-pfizer-rewarded?r=206b7a&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=audio-player
The Macro Butler pulled up a chair at Piggo’s Trading Desk to challenge the Malthusian narrative quietly promoted by governments—a narrative that normalizes scarcity, dependency, and even depopulation as “policy.”

The antidote isn’t fear or compliance. It’s financial literacy and ownership.

True freedom begins with building what we call F-You Money—capital that shields you from systemic risks and manipulations, and gives you the power to say “no” when everyone else feels forced to say “yes.”

In an era of engineered scarcity and monetary illusions, contrarians who prepare will be the ones who remain free.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-b6f
As France teeters on the brink of financial Armageddon and social unrest creeps through the streets like a disgruntled ghost, ‘Macro Leon’ reportedly finds solace in subterranean security.
Whispers from the Ministry of “Unimpeachable Sources” and various confidential dossiers suggest he has earmarked a modest €148 million for a private underground bunker—presumably to protect his delicate person from the ravages of the common populace.

https://news-pravda.com/eu/2025/10/03/1740535.html
The subterranean endeavor, entrusted to Oppidium—a Swiss atelier for the discerningly paranoid—boasts a client roster that reads like a who’s who of global privilege: Elon Musk, naturally, and the ever-ubiquitous Rothschilds.

After all, nothing conveys “peace of mind” quite like a bunker your neighbors can neither enter nor comprehend. Allegedly conceived to shield Le Petit Napoléon from the inevitable fallout of his assertive foreign adventures, the underground palace comes equipped with all the civilized essentials: a swimming pool for emergency laps, a gym to maintain readiness, a wine cellar for contemplative vintages, and an underground parking lot for discreet arrivals and departures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8jVtdC4hsE
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The ISM Services PMI slipped to a dead-flat 50.0 in September, down from 52.0, basically signalling the U.S. economy took the month off. Demand sagged, new orders fizzled, and exports shrank faster — yet supply chains somehow slowed down too, proving bureaucracy doesn’t need demand to jam the gears. Employment kept declining, but at a gentler pace, while input prices sped up just enough to give policymakers the worst of both worlds: stagnation with inflation. In short, the service sector is neither booming nor busting — it’s just awkwardly loitering in the hallway, waiting for someone else to make the first move.
In a nutshell, the ISM Services PMI flatlined in September, signaling an economy stuck in neutral with falling demand, rising costs, and policymakers’ worst headache: stagflation lite.
🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Oil prices soar, supply chains crumble, and history repeats itself — Trump Stagflation isn’t coming, it’s RSVP’d 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/countdown-to-trump-stagflation
As the Washington plutocracy polishes its nepotism into a governing philosophy and marches proudly toward its digital gulag, it was only natural that the next chapter of “freedom” would be written in blockchain code.

At Token 49 in the “Lion City” of Singapore, young Zach Witkoff — dutiful son of U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff — joined forces with Donald Copperfield Junior to unveil their grand vision: the tokenization of the 47 family’s real estate empire.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/trump-jr-zach-wilkoff-steve-dismisses-world-liberty-financial-conflict-of-interest-concerns-usd1.html
Tokenization — the latest buzzword polished by the Malthusian Bankers at BlackRock — is being sold as the next frontier of finance: a world where every asset, from real estate to your grandmother’s teapot, lives on a blockchain under the watchful eye of “improved governance.”

In reality, it’s less about innovation and more about digital domination — the first brick in a global financial panopticon where dissenters risk seeing their wallets frozen for thinking the wrong thoughts.

Welcome to the brave new world of tokenized obedience: you will own nothing, and your assets will be “safely” managed by your digital overlords.

https://trustwallet.com/blog/cryptocurrency/blackrock-move-into-asset-tokenization