Society has reached the point where we trust robots more than people—because nothing says “healthy democracy” like outsourcing leadership to an algorithm.

AI is only as honest as its coder, and with Microsoft writing the moral script, Diella isn’t exactly the savior of transparency. This isn’t progress—it’s a neon sign flashing the world has lost faith in politics.

Donald Copperfield, the failed-realtor-turned-politician with six bankruptcies to his company names, now wants companies to ditch quarterly reports for semiannual ones—because apparently, less transparency means better management. He claims it’ll “save money” and let managers “focus on running their companies,” which sounds suspiciously like “hide bad news longer.” Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett once agreed, arguing that quarterly guidance fuels short-term thinking—convenient, since Buffett’s strategy is literally “buy and hold forever.” But in today’s stagflation, this push feels less about strategy and more about damage control. When the bosses stop talking every three months, it’s rarely because they’re brimming with good news.

Cutting transparency might save a few bucks in compliance costs, but it risks spooking investors and injecting more volatility into already jittery markets. A Columbia Law study on Tel-Aviv’s 2017 switch to semi-annual reporting found stocks of firms that dropped quarterly updates fell 2%, while those that stayed quarterly rose 2.5%—proof that investors value clarity over penny-pinching. The real issue isn’t saving audit fees; it’s confidence. Less frequent reporting signals weaker earnings ahead, triggers portfolio reshuffling, and makes money managers more risk averse. And if there’s one thing markets hate more than bad news, it’s uncertainty.

https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2024/07/18/how-shifting-to-semi-annual-financial-reporting-affects-market-dynamics-and-governance/

In a nutshell, when CEOs start begging to cut quarterly reports, it’s not efficiency they’re after—it’s extra time to hide the bad news before investors panic.

August retail sales got a nice “back-to-school” caffeine shot, as shoppers clicked their way to bargains instead of swallowing tariff price hikes. Headline ‘nominal’ sales popped 0.6%, and the core group clocked in at a strong 0.7%. Online shopping was the star student, jumping 2%, while furniture and personal care flunked the test. Even bars and restaurants saw a 0.7% boost — probably thanks to well-heeled stock market winners toasting their summer gains.

Adjusted for the “CP-Lie,” retail sales rose a meagre 0.3% — still stuck at March 2025 levels and well below the April 2022 peak. Historically, real retail spending peaks alongside the S&P 500-to-oil ratio, which will inevitably fall below its 7-year moving average sooner or later — a classic recession red flag. Markets, of course, are busy whistling past the graveyard.

In a nutshell, August retail sales got a sugar rush from back-to-school shopping, but adjusted for inflation they’re flatlining — a classic recession red flag that markets are happily ignoring.

After last week’s “miraculously smooth” auctions and with the Fed reportedly set to cut at least 25bps, the US Treasury decided to auction $13 billion of the 19-year, 11-month UN6—because who doesn’t love a long-dated reopening?
The high yield came in at 4.613%, down from last month’s 4.876%—the “lowest since October 24,” because apparently history is a marketing tool. And of course, it edged just 0.2bps through the When-Issued 4.615%—the third straight “through auction,” because consistency in minor pain is apparently something to brag about.

The bid-to-cover nudged up to 2.74 from July’s 2.54—the second highest since March and just above the six-auction average of 2.65. Internals, however, were a mixed bag: Indirects scooped up 64.6% (up from last month’s “terribly low” 60.6%), while Directs set a record, snatching 27.9% of the auction—because apparently, hoarding long-dated Treasuries is now a competitive sport.

Dealers were left holding a measly 7.6%—barely enough to get a participation trophy—while Indirects and Directs played their usual tug-of-war over the rest.

All in all, another “surprisingly solid” auction—while Wall Street and their pundits keep dreaming of the mythical risk-free Treasury, reality is quietly waiting in the wings. In the inevitable Trump Stagflation, these long bonds will be anything but free of risk.

While NATO’s armchair generals seem eager for a new spark to keep the Ukraine meatgrinder spinning, the Baltics just hit the gas on their “Baltic Defense Line.” Estonia is digging a 40-km anti-tank ditch along the Russian border — because nothing says “peace and stability” like a giant trench in 2025.

https://unn.ua/en/news/estonia-builds-40-kilometer-anti-tank-ditch-on-border-with-russia

The Baltics are going all-in on their Maginot 2.0, planning 600 bunkers apiece along a 600-mile front — a decade-long project they admit Putin probably won’t politely wait to finish. Lithuania is upgrading from “random roadblocks” to a full three-layer defense line, proudly integrating NATO and EU muscle, because nothing says deterrence like announcing your plans on social media.

https://x.com/Lithuanian_MoD/status/1955974448999289175/photo/1

Russia has no reason to storm the Baltics unless the ‘North Atlantic Terror Organization’ practically begs it to. Moscow’s attention is elsewhere — but NATO needs its favorite villain to stay relevant. The so-called Baltic Defense Line isn’t a military necessity, it’s political theatre: a decade-long set piece designed to keep the public terrified and the alliance funded. Europe isn’t defending itself — it’s rehearsing for the war the neocons have been dreaming about.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 The Fed waves its rate-cut wand, but the magic is mostly smoke — and the markets will feel the burn. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-magic-trick-or-market

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler Special Service newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/fed-rate-cuts-magic-trick-or-market-9aa

A big shoutout to Hubbis for putting The Macro Butler in the spotlight with Why Gold, Why Now—proving once again that gold, the indestructible, non-confiscatable veteran forged for chaos and war, is still the ultimate “panic button” asset when the world gets messy.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/hubbis-why-gold-why-now

The Macro Butler just dropped by A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem for another round of “timeless wisdom”.

He unpacked how China, Russia, and India are busy building their own VIP trading club while Europe and the US are stuck waiting outside with the wrong dress code.

Oh, and he also tackled TikTok — apparently, it’s not just for dance challenges anymore, it’s about to become the flagbearer of the brave new multi-polar world.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-236

The BOJ, ever the master of slow-motion drama, voted 7-2 to keep rates stuck at 0.5%, but for the first time since Ueda took office, two dissenters dared to break ranks and call for a hike — suggesting Japan may eventually flirt with the idea of normal interest rates (no rush, maybe by the next century).

In true BOJ style, they spiced things up by unveiling a “bold” plan to sell off their ¥75 trillion ($508 billion) ETF hoard — at a pace so slow it would take more than 100 years to complete. Yes, the BOJ has essentially promised to be in the market longer than most of us will be alive. Governor Ueda reassured everyone that, while none of us will be around in 2125, the BOJ will nobly keep selling — very, very carefully — to avoid upsetting Japan’s “slightly overheated” stock market, which is up 26% this fiscal year. In other words, normalization is coming… at a pace only a bonsai tree could respect.