The Macro Butler graced A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to offer some “timeless wisdom” on Israel picking a fight with Qatar, the SCO summit reshaping the world, and Japan once again proving that political stability is a foreign concept—because clearly, this is exactly what the global economy needed right now.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-551

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 ‘Watt-flation’: How AI’s energy binge and America’s creaky grid are cranking up inflation—and powering the Trump stagflation storm. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/watt-flation

As shocking as a Monday morning, the ever-politically savvy ECB Chairwoman left the deposit rate untouched at 2%, proudly sticking to the “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” mantra. Inflation is apparently chilling around 2%—and, don’t worry, it’s expected to lounge there all the way to 2027. Meanwhile, the ECB played musical forecasts: nudging 2025 and 2026 up, trimming 2027 down, while the growth outlook yawned in unchanged fashion since June. Groundbreaking stuff, really.

In a nutshell, the ECB kept rates at 2%, shuffled its inflation forecasts like a polite game of musical chairs, and promised growth would stay “meh” through 2027.

Wrapping up Uncle Sam’s week-long debt party, the Treasury rolled out $22B in 30-year paper — this time landing a 4.651% yield, down from last month’s 4.813% and the lowest since March. Best of all, it priced perfectly “on the screws,” a nice change of pace after last month’s embarrassing tail-chasing fiasco.

The bid-to-cover ticked up to 2.376 from 2.266, just edging past the six-auction average of 2.366. Foreign buyers were clearly in a buying mood, snapping up 62.03% — their biggest grab since June — while Directs went full nostalgia mode, surging to 28.01%, the highest since October 2011, right after the first U.S. downgrade.

Dealers were left holding a mere 10.0% — their smallest slice since June 2023, proving once again that everyone else showed up to the party and left them with the scraps.

Overall, it was another surprisingly strong auction—though Wall Street’s banksters and talking heads still blissfully pretend that in the coming era of “Watt-flation,” the so-called risk-free asset won’t come with a side of risk.

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/watt-flation-podcast

Is the CPI Just Statistical Glitter?

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7549148907368992017

Despite all the smoke and mirrors spread by France’s new lame-duck prime minister, the country’s AA rating finally bit the dust—because apparently, even the “government-sponsored” credit rating agencies can only keep up the charade for so long. Fitch downgraded France to A+ on Friday, citing ballooning debt, political chaos, and a fiscal plan about as credible as a campaign promise. The agency warned that debt will continue climbing until 2027 (shocking, we know) and that reaching a 3% deficit target by 2029 is little more than a fairy tale. Meanwhile, Economy Minister ‘Credit Lombard’ gamely insisted that France’s economy remains “solid,” proving that denial is still Paris’s favourite pastime.

So, France just got demoted to a credit rating that puts it barely ahead of the UK—yes, the same UK that’s practically pencilling in its own downgrade—and now sits shoulder-to-shoulder with Belgium. Fitch, apparently tired of playing therapist, now has France ranked just six steps above junk. Eighteen months of political theatre and fiscal fantasy have shredded investor confidence, triggering a steady exodus from French assets. The country’s 10-year bonds now yield like they’re auditioning to join Lithuania, Slovakia, and Italy in the “periphery club,” and the spread over German Bunds has nearly doubled since Macro-Leon decided a snap election was a brilliant idea.

In a nutshell, France just got slapped with an A+ credit rating, putting it barely ahead of the UK and in the “periphery club,” as Macro-Leon’s fiscal fairy tales and political chaos send bond yields soaring and investor confidence fleeing.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Gold, the only antifragile, non-confiscable asset forged for war, remains the ultimate refuge as global chaos looms. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/why-gold-why-now

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/why-gold-why-now-podcast

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Europe’s war fever has gotten so overcooked that Poland is now handing out weekend warrior bootcamps to anyone with a pulse. Over 20,000 eager recruits have signed up — including Polish mothers, who apparently plan to protect their kids by learning how to trade the stroller for a rifle.

https://nypost.com/2025/09/13/world-news/thousands-in-poland-seek-military-training-over-fears-of-russia-attack/

The logic is almost charming — except that putting women on the front lines usually signals desperation, not clever strategy. What’s really amusing is watching a country that normally treats gun ownership like a state secret suddenly discover its citizens are useful as a militia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJLheUN3Ahs

Europe’s “contributions” to NATO are little more than a rounding error, with Uncle Sam footing most of the bill for decades. As for actually fighting a drawn-out war with Russia? Europe can barely manufacture enough weapons for a parade, let alone sustain an attrition conflict. The logistics, the equipment, the resources — all missing in action.

In a nutshell, Europe’s war fever is so bad it’s training moms with rifles while still relying on Uncle Sam for weapons it can’t build and wars it can’t fight.