So… who do you want to be?

Listen to The Month That It Was in June 2025 from The Macro Butler.

You can now also listen to this podcast on YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-month-that-it-was-june-2025

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-june-15f

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-817

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-310

The US ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.0—cue the applause for being less bad than expected. The bump came from a rebound in production and inventories, not from anything as exciting as actual demand. Firms aren’t betting on a recovery—they’re just hoarding ahead of looming tariffs. New orders dropped, backlogs shrank, and employment fell even faster. But hey, export orders rose—probably because everyone’s racing to beat the end of the “Liberation Day” tariffs truce. Supplier deliveries “improved,” which just means things are slowing more efficiently now. And prices? Still climbing. So to recap: demand’s fading, workers are getting cut, inflation’s heating up—but sure, let’s celebrate that inventory bounce.

In a nutshell, US Manufacturing limped forward on inventory hoarding and renewed tariff fear, while demand sagged, jobs shrank, and prices kept climbing—call it a booming economy if you dare.

While climate crusaders scream about cow farts and carbon credits, the Sun has quietly decided it’s time for another solar nap starting this July—cue the Ring of Fire, which is now throwing a seismic tantrum. With over 15,000 quakes in 2024 alone (up 23%), and volcanoes stretching from Chile to Japan stretching their legs, it seems Mother Nature didn’t get the memo about carbon neutrality.

Indonesia’s volcanoes are heating up—literally. With Mount Merapi, Tambora, and at least ten others rumbling in unison, scientists are sounding the alarm over an eruption cluster not seen in modern history. Magma chambers are swelling 40% faster than normal, and even Tambora—the beast behind the 1815 "Year Without a Summer"—is stirring from its centuries-long slumber. In short: the Ring of Fire just turned the heat way up.

https://climatecosmos.com/climate-news/ring-of-fire-rising-geologists-raise-the-alarm/

The Sun’s secret symphony: how hidden solar rhythms steer the twists of the business cycle and shape financial fate.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-suns-secret-symphony-of-chaos

With Independence Day fireworks about to light up the sky—and the July 9 tariff ceasefire deadline looming like a piñata full of market chaos—Trump decided to sprinkle in some good old-fashioned trade drama. Just in case investors were starting to relax (or nap), he proudly declared a new trade deal with Vietnam. Because nothing says "calm before the storm" like a last-minute handshake while the market sleepwalks into a déjà vu of Liberation Day.

Per the deal, Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and a 40% hit on transshipped goods—aka a not-so-subtle jab at China’s backdoor trade tricks. Translation: Vietnam gets a deal, Xi gets a headache, and Washington gets to poke the dragon… again.

In return for the tariffs, Trump proudly declared that Vietnam would "OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES" with zero tariffs—an unprecedented move, apparently. Too bad it’s mostly symbolic, since the U.S. exports about as much to Vietnam as it does moon rocks.

What may really matter is that a deal got inked—details be damned—even if it means poking the Chinese dragon. Trump, ever the salesman, may have mastered the art of the deal, but when it comes to the art of war—trade or otherwise—he’s still painting by numbers.

In the US, services sprang back to life in June—just in time to dodge tariffs—though customers still seem to be holding onto their wallets like it’s 2008. Prices stayed annoyingly high, hiring slipped into reverse, and some savvy firms skipped the job ads and just poached laid-off talent from the big guys. In short: business is picking up, but it’s doing so with one eye on costs and the other on tariffs.

In a nutshell, services bounced back in June, dodging tariffs and trimming hiring, as businesses hustle, prices stay hot, and layoffs turn into talent shopping sprees.

On the surface, the June Non-Farm Payrolls looked like a victory lap: job creation surged unexpectedly, unemployment ticked lower, hourly earnings cooled just enough to soothe inflation hawks, and full-time employment saw a healthy jump.

But scratch beneath the surface, and the celebratory headlines lose their lustre. The bulk of job creation came from Education and Health Services (+51K) and Government (+73K)—sectors either directly funded or heavily subsidized by taxpayer money. In other words, it wasn’t private sector dynamism but state-sponsored expansion doing the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the federal workforce continued its slow bleed, and the drop in part-time roles hints at rising labour market rigidity.

Don’t pop the champagne yet. That jobless drop? It wasn’t more people getting hired—it was more people giving up and leaving the workforce. Even worse, the average workweek shrank—meaning Americans took home less money despite rising wages. Translation: the labor market isn’t booming, it’s quietly shrinking. But if the headlines sound good, who cares about the fine print?

At the end of the day, unemployment has remained above its two-year average since September 2023—a historically ominous signal that economic storm clouds may be gathering for the next 12 to 24 months.