Donald Copperfield was justified in firing the BLS commissioner: repeated massive negative revisions weren’t chance—they were incompetence. Strip out hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, and domestic job creation in Biden’s final year was basically zero. To top it off, 2 million jobs from the last three years of the Biden administration have now been quietly revised away.

One thing that won’t ever be revised away, however, is the trillions in debt racked up during his term—leaving future generations of Americans buried under massive obligations for far fewer jobs than originally claimed.

In a rare twist, we got wholesale inflation before consumer inflation—and surprise, PPI actually dipped 0.1% in August, the first drop in four months. Apparently, companies decided gouging customers wasn’t worth it (at least for now), even with tariffs nibbling at their costs. Services prices tumbled, led by wholesalers and retailers taking a 1.7% margin nosedive—the sharpest since 2009—basically undoing July’s spike. In short: businesses are playing chicken with prices, the Fed gets more ammo for cuts, and tobacco is still doing its best to keep inflation puffing along.

In a rare twist of financial theater, the Treasury’s latest $39 billion “9-Year 11-Month” encore was greeted like a surprise blockbuster sequel. The auction priced at a 4.033% yield—dramatically slimmer than last month’s 4.255%, and the lowest since last September’s market panic that had the Fed slashing 50bps just to calm the audience. And for added drama, this one stopped through the When Issued by 1.3bps, the juiciest stop-through since April’s market meltdown—because clearly, nothing says “economic stability” like bond investors tripping over themselves for Uncle Sam’s IOUs.

The auction wasn’t just strong—it was a full-blown foreign love affair. The bid-to-cover jumped to 2.650, its best showing since April, but the real fireworks came from Indirects: foreigners gobbled up 83.1% of the reopening, the second-highest on record, only topped by April’s 87.9% frenzy when the market was in full-blown panic/basis-trade collapse mode. Apparently, nothing soothes global investors like another helping of U.S. debt.

And just to complete the comedy, Directs showed up half-heartedly at 12.66%—their weakest since April—leaving Dealers stuck with a measly 4.2%, the lowest take on record. Translation: Wall Street got the crumbs while foreigners feasted, and everyone pretends this is perfectly normal.

Overall this was another surprisingly stellar auction as wall street and foreigner pundits have yet to realize that when investors and consumers trust in public institutions fade like snow melting in the sun the once upon a time risk free asset will not be free of risks anymore.

The Macro Butler graced A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to offer some “timeless wisdom” on Israel picking a fight with Qatar, the SCO summit reshaping the world, and Japan once again proving that political stability is a foreign concept—because clearly, this is exactly what the global economy needed right now.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-551

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 ‘Watt-flation’: How AI’s energy binge and America’s creaky grid are cranking up inflation—and powering the Trump stagflation storm. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/watt-flation

As shocking as a Monday morning, the ever-politically savvy ECB Chairwoman left the deposit rate untouched at 2%, proudly sticking to the “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” mantra. Inflation is apparently chilling around 2%—and, don’t worry, it’s expected to lounge there all the way to 2027. Meanwhile, the ECB played musical forecasts: nudging 2025 and 2026 up, trimming 2027 down, while the growth outlook yawned in unchanged fashion since June. Groundbreaking stuff, really.

In a nutshell, the ECB kept rates at 2%, shuffled its inflation forecasts like a polite game of musical chairs, and promised growth would stay “meh” through 2027.

Wrapping up Uncle Sam’s week-long debt party, the Treasury rolled out $22B in 30-year paper — this time landing a 4.651% yield, down from last month’s 4.813% and the lowest since March. Best of all, it priced perfectly “on the screws,” a nice change of pace after last month’s embarrassing tail-chasing fiasco.

The bid-to-cover ticked up to 2.376 from 2.266, just edging past the six-auction average of 2.366. Foreign buyers were clearly in a buying mood, snapping up 62.03% — their biggest grab since June — while Directs went full nostalgia mode, surging to 28.01%, the highest since October 2011, right after the first U.S. downgrade.

Dealers were left holding a mere 10.0% — their smallest slice since June 2023, proving once again that everyone else showed up to the party and left them with the scraps.

Overall, it was another surprisingly strong auction—though Wall Street’s banksters and talking heads still blissfully pretend that in the coming era of “Watt-flation,” the so-called risk-free asset won’t come with a side of risk.

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/watt-flation-podcast

Is the CPI Just Statistical Glitter?

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7549148907368992017

Despite all the smoke and mirrors spread by France’s new lame-duck prime minister, the country’s AA rating finally bit the dust—because apparently, even the “government-sponsored” credit rating agencies can only keep up the charade for so long. Fitch downgraded France to A+ on Friday, citing ballooning debt, political chaos, and a fiscal plan about as credible as a campaign promise. The agency warned that debt will continue climbing until 2027 (shocking, we know) and that reaching a 3% deficit target by 2029 is little more than a fairy tale. Meanwhile, Economy Minister ‘Credit Lombard’ gamely insisted that France’s economy remains “solid,” proving that denial is still Paris’s favourite pastime.

So, France just got demoted to a credit rating that puts it barely ahead of the UK—yes, the same UK that’s practically pencilling in its own downgrade—and now sits shoulder-to-shoulder with Belgium. Fitch, apparently tired of playing therapist, now has France ranked just six steps above junk. Eighteen months of political theatre and fiscal fantasy have shredded investor confidence, triggering a steady exodus from French assets. The country’s 10-year bonds now yield like they’re auditioning to join Lithuania, Slovakia, and Italy in the “periphery club,” and the spread over German Bunds has nearly doubled since Macro-Leon decided a snap election was a brilliant idea.

In a nutshell, France just got slapped with an A+ credit rating, putting it barely ahead of the UK and in the “periphery club,” as Macro-Leon’s fiscal fairy tales and political chaos send bond yields soaring and investor confidence fleeing.