While the Middle East preps for yet another season of “Who Wants to Torch the Region?”, China’s statisticians proudly announced that producer prices only fell 2.9% in August—apparently, that counts as progress when you’ve been tripping down the stairs for eight straight months. Officials credit this “victory” to curbing “disorderly competition,” which in Beijing-speak means telling coal, steel, and solar producers to stop fighting over who can go bankrupt the fastest. Meanwhile, food prices tanked 4.3%—bad news for farmers, great news if your diet consists of instant noodles. The core CPI managed to crawl up to 0.9%, which is being hailed as a triumph of “innovation industries,” though one suspects it’s really just higher prices for AI-powered gadgets no one actually needs.

Forget the noise—equity investors should keep their eyes on the spread between core CPI and PPI. Competition may be “bad” for business, but those who can actually deliver better products at lower costs are now the market’s darlings. In August, China chalked up its 36th consecutive month of a positive CPI–PPI spread, the very engine behind the equity market’s re-rating. Meanwhile, the ever-wise Western crowd keeps mocking China and blaming the “China bogeyman” for every pothole in their own backyard—because nothing says sound economics like projection and denial.

In a nutshell, China just notched its 36th straight month of a positive CPI–PPI spread, stoking the “Make China Great Again” moment, while the West keeps tripping over its own shoelaces and blaming the China bogeyman.

In true “no matter who’s in the Oval Office” fashion, the Bull Shit” Office (better known as BLS) has outdone itself: the preliminary March 2025 benchmark revision slashed 911,000 payrolls—the largest negative revision ever—following last year’s déjà-vu 818K cut. Apparently, businesses were “forgetful” in their reports, and nonrespondents weren’t much help either. As usual, these errors—dressed up as response and nonresponse quirks—remind us that the BLS’ numbers are more art than science, and history shows the official figures are always subject to revision, often downward, with the “final” version only coming next February.

Leisure, Professional, and Retail sectors bear the brunt, proving once again that when it comes to employment data, the BLS can make even reality look optional.

Taken at face value, the preliminary revision suggests payrolls actually grew 71K jobs per month from April 2024 to March 2025—less than half of the 147K/month previously reported. In other words, reality decided to politely correct the hype.

Donald Copperfield was justified in firing the BLS commissioner: repeated massive negative revisions weren’t chance—they were incompetence. Strip out hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, and domestic job creation in Biden’s final year was basically zero. To top it off, 2 million jobs from the last three years of the Biden administration have now been quietly revised away.

One thing that won’t ever be revised away, however, is the trillions in debt racked up during his term—leaving future generations of Americans buried under massive obligations for far fewer jobs than originally claimed.

In a rare twist, we got wholesale inflation before consumer inflation—and surprise, PPI actually dipped 0.1% in August, the first drop in four months. Apparently, companies decided gouging customers wasn’t worth it (at least for now), even with tariffs nibbling at their costs. Services prices tumbled, led by wholesalers and retailers taking a 1.7% margin nosedive—the sharpest since 2009—basically undoing July’s spike. In short: businesses are playing chicken with prices, the Fed gets more ammo for cuts, and tobacco is still doing its best to keep inflation puffing along.

In a rare twist of financial theater, the Treasury’s latest $39 billion “9-Year 11-Month” encore was greeted like a surprise blockbuster sequel. The auction priced at a 4.033% yield—dramatically slimmer than last month’s 4.255%, and the lowest since last September’s market panic that had the Fed slashing 50bps just to calm the audience. And for added drama, this one stopped through the When Issued by 1.3bps, the juiciest stop-through since April’s market meltdown—because clearly, nothing says “economic stability” like bond investors tripping over themselves for Uncle Sam’s IOUs.

The auction wasn’t just strong—it was a full-blown foreign love affair. The bid-to-cover jumped to 2.650, its best showing since April, but the real fireworks came from Indirects: foreigners gobbled up 83.1% of the reopening, the second-highest on record, only topped by April’s 87.9% frenzy when the market was in full-blown panic/basis-trade collapse mode. Apparently, nothing soothes global investors like another helping of U.S. debt.

And just to complete the comedy, Directs showed up half-heartedly at 12.66%—their weakest since April—leaving Dealers stuck with a measly 4.2%, the lowest take on record. Translation: Wall Street got the crumbs while foreigners feasted, and everyone pretends this is perfectly normal.

Overall this was another surprisingly stellar auction as wall street and foreigner pundits have yet to realize that when investors and consumers trust in public institutions fade like snow melting in the sun the once upon a time risk free asset will not be free of risks anymore.

The Macro Butler graced A-News Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to offer some “timeless wisdom” on Israel picking a fight with Qatar, the SCO summit reshaping the world, and Japan once again proving that political stability is a foreign concept—because clearly, this is exactly what the global economy needed right now.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-a-news-turkiyes-diplomacy-551

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 ‘Watt-flation’: How AI’s energy binge and America’s creaky grid are cranking up inflation—and powering the Trump stagflation storm. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/watt-flation

As shocking as a Monday morning, the ever-politically savvy ECB Chairwoman left the deposit rate untouched at 2%, proudly sticking to the “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” mantra. Inflation is apparently chilling around 2%—and, don’t worry, it’s expected to lounge there all the way to 2027. Meanwhile, the ECB played musical forecasts: nudging 2025 and 2026 up, trimming 2027 down, while the growth outlook yawned in unchanged fashion since June. Groundbreaking stuff, really.

In a nutshell, the ECB kept rates at 2%, shuffled its inflation forecasts like a polite game of musical chairs, and promised growth would stay “meh” through 2027.

Wrapping up Uncle Sam’s week-long debt party, the Treasury rolled out $22B in 30-year paper — this time landing a 4.651% yield, down from last month’s 4.813% and the lowest since March. Best of all, it priced perfectly “on the screws,” a nice change of pace after last month’s embarrassing tail-chasing fiasco.

The bid-to-cover ticked up to 2.376 from 2.266, just edging past the six-auction average of 2.366. Foreign buyers were clearly in a buying mood, snapping up 62.03% — their biggest grab since June — while Directs went full nostalgia mode, surging to 28.01%, the highest since October 2011, right after the first U.S. downgrade.

Dealers were left holding a mere 10.0% — their smallest slice since June 2023, proving once again that everyone else showed up to the party and left them with the scraps.