In the latest plot twist of the climate soap opera, #Australia has introduced the world’s first “#climate visa,” letting Tuvaluans escape their allegedly sinking paradise—because what’s a better passport than rising sea levels?
As of June 30, 2025, over a third of the island’s 4,000+ residents have applied, eager to trade beachfront doom for Aussie healthcare and Wi-Fi. Under a treaty signed in 2023, 280 Tuvaluans a year get golden tickets out—because nothing says climate emergency like a bureaucratic quota.

The so-called “climate visa” may sound like an act of environmental compassion, but it’s really more geopolitical chess than humanitarian charity. Under the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty, Tuvaluans get a lifeline only if Tuvalu hands over veto power to Australia on any future security or defense agreements. Conveniently, Tuvalu is one of the few countries that recognizes Taiwan over China—making it a strategic pawn in the Indo-Pacific. So yes, it’s less “climate rescue,” more “checkmate Beijing with a coconut island.”

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/26/asia-pacific/politics/tuvalu-australia-climate-visa/

#China’s June #PMI was a bit like that glass of champagne at a frat party—it looks bubbly, but the room’s still a mess. Manufacturing production perked up and demand expanded for the first time in three months—cheers to that! But don’t get too carried away (or end up hugging the porcelain bowl), because employment is still shrivelling and business confidence is down in the dumps—the weakest since Beijing’s big growth pep talk last September.

With the U.S.–China #tariff truce expiring in mid‑August, that glass of optimism might evaporate faster than a cold brew on a hot day. Sure, Beijing cranked up construction, signalling support for the economy, but any real stimulus is apparently being saved for late Q3—just in time to either calm nerves or go off-script entirely if trade tensions choke again.

So… who do you want to be?

Listen to The Month That It Was in June 2025 from The Macro Butler.

You can now also listen to this podcast on YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-month-that-it-was-june-2025

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-june-15f

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-817

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-310

The US ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.0—cue the applause for being less bad than expected. The bump came from a rebound in production and inventories, not from anything as exciting as actual demand. Firms aren’t betting on a recovery—they’re just hoarding ahead of looming tariffs. New orders dropped, backlogs shrank, and employment fell even faster. But hey, export orders rose—probably because everyone’s racing to beat the end of the “Liberation Day” tariffs truce. Supplier deliveries “improved,” which just means things are slowing more efficiently now. And prices? Still climbing. So to recap: demand’s fading, workers are getting cut, inflation’s heating up—but sure, let’s celebrate that inventory bounce.

In a nutshell, US Manufacturing limped forward on inventory hoarding and renewed tariff fear, while demand sagged, jobs shrank, and prices kept climbing—call it a booming economy if you dare.

While climate crusaders scream about cow farts and carbon credits, the Sun has quietly decided it’s time for another solar nap starting this July—cue the Ring of Fire, which is now throwing a seismic tantrum. With over 15,000 quakes in 2024 alone (up 23%), and volcanoes stretching from Chile to Japan stretching their legs, it seems Mother Nature didn’t get the memo about carbon neutrality.

Indonesia’s volcanoes are heating up—literally. With Mount Merapi, Tambora, and at least ten others rumbling in unison, scientists are sounding the alarm over an eruption cluster not seen in modern history. Magma chambers are swelling 40% faster than normal, and even Tambora—the beast behind the 1815 "Year Without a Summer"—is stirring from its centuries-long slumber. In short: the Ring of Fire just turned the heat way up.

https://climatecosmos.com/climate-news/ring-of-fire-rising-geologists-raise-the-alarm/

The Sun’s secret symphony: how hidden solar rhythms steer the twists of the business cycle and shape financial fate.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-suns-secret-symphony-of-chaos

With Independence Day fireworks about to light up the sky—and the July 9 tariff ceasefire deadline looming like a piñata full of market chaos—Trump decided to sprinkle in some good old-fashioned trade drama. Just in case investors were starting to relax (or nap), he proudly declared a new trade deal with Vietnam. Because nothing says "calm before the storm" like a last-minute handshake while the market sleepwalks into a déjà vu of Liberation Day.

Per the deal, Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and a 40% hit on transshipped goods—aka a not-so-subtle jab at China’s backdoor trade tricks. Translation: Vietnam gets a deal, Xi gets a headache, and Washington gets to poke the dragon… again.

In return for the tariffs, Trump proudly declared that Vietnam would "OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES" with zero tariffs—an unprecedented move, apparently. Too bad it’s mostly symbolic, since the U.S. exports about as much to Vietnam as it does moon rocks.

What may really matter is that a deal got inked—details be damned—even if it means poking the Chinese dragon. Trump, ever the salesman, may have mastered the art of the deal, but when it comes to the art of war—trade or otherwise—he’s still painting by numbers.

In the US, services sprang back to life in June—just in time to dodge tariffs—though customers still seem to be holding onto their wallets like it’s 2008. Prices stayed annoyingly high, hiring slipped into reverse, and some savvy firms skipped the job ads and just poached laid-off talent from the big guys. In short: business is picking up, but it’s doing so with one eye on costs and the other on tariffs.

In a nutshell, services bounced back in June, dodging tariffs and trimming hiring, as businesses hustle, prices stay hot, and layoffs turn into talent shopping sprees.