The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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The corruption was beyond parody—an agency with barely $100 in revenue got handed a $2 billion grant, all conveniently tied to failed politician. Just picture the media outrage if Donald Copperfield had funneled billions to a group with the financial heft of a lemonade stand and links to a conservative ally. Instead, under the last administration, looting the public purse for climate scams, migrant handouts, war profiteering, and personal gain was treated like business as usual.

https://www.rightwing.org/massive-scandal-2-billion-grant-given-and-hidden/
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There’s a real chance this mess ends up before the U.S. Supreme Court. And frankly, the American people should be furious: billions were burned not to serve the public, but to score points against a political rival. Let’s be clear—the spending spree hurt taxpayers, who are always the collateral damage in these petty political wars.
While American workers were nursing barbecues and hangovers, China marked the 80th anniversary of its liberation. The self-styled “Peace Maker in Chief”—better known as the “Warmonger in Chief”—reminded Beijing to thank the U.S. for the blood it spilled to secure China’s freedom.
At Beijing’s grand military parade—the largest in China’s history—Xi Jinping rolled out the new axis of power with Putin and Kim Jong-Un at his side, a not-so-subtle warning to the West. Cloaked in the rhetoric of “peace or war, dialogue or confrontation,” Xi assured 50,000 spectators that China “stands on the right side of history.” Of course, every nation at war makes the same claim—yet history only remembers the victors.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/03/china-military-parade-xi-jinping-appears-with-vladimir-putin-kim-jong-un
China’s parade was more than a commemoration of Japan’s retreat 80 years ago—it was a thunderous declaration that neutrality is over. With Europe flirting with boots on the ground in Ukraine and World War III looming, Beijing lined up alongside Moscow and showcased an arsenal designed to rattle the West. Xi paraded not just tanks and troops, but a chilling array of weaponry: the Dong Feng 5C ICBM, capable of hurling a dozen nuclear warheads anywhere on Earth, and hypersonic “carrier killers” engineered to outpace America’s most advanced defenses.
The message was unmistakable—choose peace, or face China’s sharpened edge.

https://youtu.be/ifiGDrsO14I
Wall Street is still popping champagne over a maybe-rate-cut, while the real show is happening backstage: liquidity. The Fed’s overnight reverse repo has collapsed from a $2.3 trillion mountain to pocket change ($17.9 billion). That pile of “extra money nobody wanted” was parked at the Fed like a kid’s allowance in a piggy bank. As it drained, it quietly juiced markets like stealth QE.

Now the piggy bank is empty, the Fed’s QT party is about to hit the wall, and bank reserves—still fat at $3.2 trillion—are next on the chopping block.
On September 17th when the FOMC meets, the real story isn’t whether the Fed cuts rates—it’s that QT is ending. That’s the real market mover. Meanwhile, the USD liquidity aggregate index is tightening again year-over-year, and every time that happens, bonds and equities usually throw a proper tantrum. In short: forget the rate-cut hype, brace for volatility.
Instead of tuning in to financial “experts” who’ve never risked a single dollar, investors should strap in—September is shaping up to deliver more volatility than anything we’ve seen in this so-called Jubilee Year.
US Services activity perked up in August — thank you, data centres and the great sport of tariff front-running. The ISM Services PMI jumped to 52.0 from 50.1, with new orders at their fastest pace since October. Of course, backlogs shrank, prices stayed painfully high, and employment kept contracting. Translation: business looks “better,” but mostly because firms are rushing to beat tariffs while quietly admitting they can’t keep eating the costs. Call it growth with a side of inflation, served lukewarm or an inevitable stagflation ahead.
In a nutshell, August’s services rebound looks less like real growth and more like tariff panic—demand up, costs rising, jobs shrinking: stagflation dressed as recovery.
Under the iron-fisted wisdom of “Gavin Grewsom,” California hasn’t just been perfecting its transformation into a budget-friendly Socialist theme park—it also earned gold medals in ‘plandemic’ paranoia. So really, who’s shocked that on September 1, 2025, the California Department of Public Hysteria— meaning, Public Health—decided to warn everyone to wear masks again.

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2025/09/03/masks-coronavirus-wave-hits-newsoms-california/
California clung to mask mandates like a lifeline, while its governor happily posed maskless at fancy dinners. Two years of “do as I say, not as I do,” and now, while mandates aren’t back, the old “we’re just encouraging it” routine has returned—the same slippery slope that started it all. Spin Doctor Fauci’s greatest hit? “We’re not talking about mandates… but you really should.” And we all know how that song ended.
He later admitted that mask mandates were completely ineffective after being interrogated by Rand Paul:


https://x.com/RandPaul/status/1698372490639327556?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1698372490639327556%7Ctwgr%5E1ae27963369ec6639a211bc93cf22ba26ef1f73c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armstrongeconomics.com%2Finternational-news%2Fdisease%2Fcalifornia-may-reimplement-mask-mandates%2F
During the ‘plandemic’, obedience to government morphed into a kind of state-sponsored religion, with masks and vaccine cards serving as badges of holiness. Free debate was smothered, censorship ruled, and only one “truth” was allowed—the one that kept us in line. Now that the COVID psyop has been exposed for what it was—a global obedience test—California lawmakers, panicked at losing their grip, are dusting off the same tired playbook. Their answer? Slap the mask back on, call it “public health,” and hope no one notices it’s just control theatre in disguise.
The “resilient” U.S. labour market that officials keep bragging about is looking more like a house of cards in a wind tunnel. August managed just 22K new jobs, while June was quietly revised into negative territory — the first red print since 2020 — and July wasn’t much better after downward revisions. Only teachers, bartenders, and amusement parks kept hiring, while business services and government trimmed payrolls.
Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since October 2021, while the participation rate held steady at 62.3% and average weekly hours worked slipped to 34.2. The combination points to a softening labour market. With joblessness now above its two-year average since September 2023, recession risks are clearly mounting.
In a nutshell, the “resilient” U.S. labor market just cracked: weak hiring, negative revisions, rising unemployment, and shrinking hours now signal recession risks are no longer theory but reality.
🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Borrow, Bomb, Repeat—history’s oldest government playbook, and Europe is about to prove chaos still makes the perfect distraction. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/borrow-bomb-repeat
In this chapter of The Macro Butler Chronicles, our hero teams up with Arigato Investor to uncover the ultimate treasure of the war cycle decade: Gold!

As Bonds, and Cash stumble like fallen warriors, #Gold shines as the undefeated champion—proving once again why every investor needs it in their arsenal.



https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-arigato-investor-03092025
As France’s ‘Bay-Roue De Secours’ clings to life support, Japan’s own lame duck finally chose political seppuku—after presiding over electoral wipeouts, fiscal fog, and a trade deal with Donald Copperfield that now hangs in the balance. Investors can look forward to weeks of hand-wringing while waiting to see which new face will recycle the same old script.