Dear Investors,

Please find below the August 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-c48

Dear Investors,

Please find below the August 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-600

Listen to The Month That It Was in August 2025 from The Macro Butler.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-month-that-it-was-august-2025

While Western media keeps preaching its navel-gazing green gospel, the so-called “irrelevant” mercantilist Global South gathered in Tianjin for the SCO summit. And while the West debates carbon credits and virtue points, Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation quietly signed a deal to pump even more gas into China.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-bless-vast-new-power-siberia-2-pipeline-gazprom-says-2025-09-02/

While the U.S. empire still clings to its sea dominance, the Global South seems content paving roads instead. Case in point: Gazprom and CNPC are pushing ahead with the world’s biggest, most capital-intensive gas pipeline—from Russia’s Arctic fields across Siberia to Mongolia and into China. And since Beijing already tops the charts as Russia’s biggest oil and gas buyer, second in coal, and third in LNG, this is less a “new deal” and more like topping up an already full tank.

Europe, it’s game over. The green zealots and the warmongers are dragging you back to the Middle Ages, and you’re cheering them on. Meanwhile, the largest infrastructure project in history is securing China’s dominance and energy independence—while Europe sleepwalks into economic annihilation.

Donald Copperfield magically popped out of his golf course just in time to see ISM Manufacturing PMI tick up to 48.7 in August, a touch below expectations. New orders did the heavy lifting, inventories ran low, and suppliers slowed down — basically the same old song. Production lagged, jobs slipped (but not as badly), and prices cooled ever so slightly.

In a nutshell, US Manufacturing’s still limping , but with new orders up and prices easing, it looks more like a stubborn jog than a collapse, at least for now.

France’s republican theater is collapsing, and the march to war can no longer be denied. A leaked July 18, 2025 memo reveals the Ministry of Health has ordered hospitals to prepare for a “major military engagement,” expecting up to 50,000 wounded within months of deployment. ‘Macro-Leon’ has vowed to send troops to Ukraine, and the nation is being conditioned for the inevitable. Hospitals are instructed to train staff under wartime constraints, brace for psychological and physical trauma, and prepare emergency centers near airports and train stations for mass casualties. Europe is on the edge; the contagion of war will not remain contained.

https://www.lecanardenchaine.fr/defense/51669-la-sante-requisitionne-les-hopitaux-pour-la-guerre-en-europe

The “North Atlantic Terror Organization” , alias NATO, isn’t officially at war yet, but you wouldn’t know it from the balance sheet. Drowning in debt, NATO’s members somehow found the cash to make Ukraine the priciest conflict in the alliance’s history. Spending will hit $1.59 trillion in 2025—up from $1.5 trillion last year—with the US footing the lion’s share at $980 billion. Canada and Europe together will cough up $608 billion, averaging 2.76% of GDP, while Poland proudly takes the crown at 4.48%. Lithuania and Latvia follow close behind, with the Nordics happy to burn through 3% or more of their GDP on this “defense.”

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2025/8/pdf/250827-def-exp-2025-en.pdf

Remember when NATO members were “struggling” to meet 2%? That was before Russia-Ukraine. Now they’ve shot up from 1.8% pre-war to 2.6% in 2024, and 2.76% today—already marching toward the 5% pledge made at the Hague Summit in June 2025. Apparently, when your economy is buckling under debt and inflation, the smartest thing to do is double military spending. Brilliant.

Of course, the sales pitch hasn’t changed in a century. Before World War I, it was “deterrence” as Europe poured money into armies and navies. In the 1930s, it was “job creation” as Germany, Italy, and Japan rearmed while their citizens starved under wage controls and shortages. Rome did the same in the third century: endless frontier wars devoured the treasury, coinage was debased, and the empire collapsed. Different actors, same playbook.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/february/war-highest-defense-spending-measured

What NATO is doing today is no different—gutting social programs, diverting capital from productive enterprise, and pretending that war spending is “security.” In reality, it’s inflation, destruction, and debt-financed suicide. The latest NATO report isn’t just a budget—it’s a roadmap of nations stumbling into the War Cycle. The West has chosen militarization, and history is laughing—because we already know how this story ends.

In true “Lettuce vs. Liz Truss” fashion, Keynesian hero ‘Keith Starmer’ is about to unveil a budget with a £35 billion black hole—without, of course, denting economic growth.

Bond vigilantes are back in the UK, as markets were slow to price inflation into gilts and that fiscal clarity is now essential. On Tuesday, 30-year gilt yields spiked eight basis points to 5.72%. Treasurer in Chief ‘Live Even-More’ of course downplayed the move, insisting yields are simply tracking global peers and remain “orderly.”

In a nutshell, ‘Keith’ ‘s magic-budget lettuce act comes with a £35B hole, soaring gilt yields, and a Treasurer insisting it’s all just “orderly gardening.”

Before handing the White House keys to Donald Copperfield, Sleepy Joe and his merry band of green zealots made sure to squeeze in one last magic trick—laundering cash faster than a washing machine on spin cycle, with one member even perfecting the art of “tossing gold bars off the Titanic.”

https://www.projectveritas.com/news/epa-advisor-admits-insurance-policy-against-trump-is-gold-bars-off-titanic

The so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” was nothing more than a reckless spending spree, a Trojan horse to bankroll the Malthusian climate crusade of the green zealots running amok in the Washington Swamp under #46.

https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1831786155559547172

The corruption was beyond parody—an agency with barely $100 in revenue got handed a $2 billion grant, all conveniently tied to failed politician. Just picture the media outrage if Donald Copperfield had funneled billions to a group with the financial heft of a lemonade stand and links to a conservative ally. Instead, under the last administration, looting the public purse for climate scams, migrant handouts, war profiteering, and personal gain was treated like business as usual.

https://www.rightwing.org/massive-scandal-2-billion-grant-given-and-hidden/

There’s a real chance this mess ends up before the U.S. Supreme Court. And frankly, the American people should be furious: billions were burned not to serve the public, but to score points against a political rival. Let’s be clear—the spending spree hurt taxpayers, who are always the collateral damage in these petty political wars.