University of Michigan Consumer sentiment final prints confirmed the gloomy vibes: consumer sentiment weakened in August, inflation fears crept back, and buying conditions for big-ticket items hit their lowest in a year. Inflation expectations added insult to injury—short-term ticking up to 4.8% and long-term edging higher too—basically reminding everyone that the “inflation is dead” narrative was a little premature. In short, consumers aren’t exactly panicking, but they’re definitely not lining up to celebrate either.

The political split in consumer sentiment just hit its widest level since records began in 2017: Republicans, Democrats, and Independents can’t even agree on the state of their own wallets—so if the “United” States can’t find common ground on money, what hope is there for everything else?

In a nutshell, consumer sentiment soured in August as inflation fears resurfaced, big-ticket purchases stalled, and political divides over wallets hit record highs—so much for a “United” America.

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China’s August PMIs confirm the economy is still stuck in July’s rut — and no, you can’t just blame the rain. Manufacturing barely crawled up, construction face-planted to its worst level since Covid lockdowns, and demand looks like it’s on vacation. Services gave a little lift, but mostly thanks to tourists and a stock market sugar high — hardly the stuff of sustainable growth. Ironically, the hotter stocks run, the less likely the PBoC is to serve up another stimulus cocktail anytime soon.

China’s stock market is partying while the real economy is nursing a hangover. Weak PMIs argue for more PBOC easing, but with equities frothy, Beijing is in no rush to pour more drinks. Stimulus should now be expected to be later — and lighter — than hoped, with odds slipping on the year-end rate and RRR cuts. Fiscal room is also tight. With the 2024 budget already loaded, any slowdown would see spending pulled forward from 2025, not deficit expansion. Subsidies for kids and pre-school waivers show Beijing prefers targeted relief over broad stimulus.

In a nutshell: it’s not yet time to “Make China Great Again,” and with the stock market partying, the PBoC is hesitant to spike the punch with fresh stimulus.

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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-august-031

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Please find below the August 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

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Please find below the August 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

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Listen to The Month That It Was in August 2025 from The Macro Butler.

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While Western media keeps preaching its navel-gazing green gospel, the so-called “irrelevant” mercantilist Global South gathered in Tianjin for the SCO summit. And while the West debates carbon credits and virtue points, Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation quietly signed a deal to pump even more gas into China.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-bless-vast-new-power-siberia-2-pipeline-gazprom-says-2025-09-02/

While the U.S. empire still clings to its sea dominance, the Global South seems content paving roads instead. Case in point: Gazprom and CNPC are pushing ahead with the world’s biggest, most capital-intensive gas pipeline—from Russia’s Arctic fields across Siberia to Mongolia and into China. And since Beijing already tops the charts as Russia’s biggest oil and gas buyer, second in coal, and third in LNG, this is less a “new deal” and more like topping up an already full tank.

Europe, it’s game over. The green zealots and the warmongers are dragging you back to the Middle Ages, and you’re cheering them on. Meanwhile, the largest infrastructure project in history is securing China’s dominance and energy independence—while Europe sleepwalks into economic annihilation.

Donald Copperfield magically popped out of his golf course just in time to see ISM Manufacturing PMI tick up to 48.7 in August, a touch below expectations. New orders did the heavy lifting, inventories ran low, and suppliers slowed down — basically the same old song. Production lagged, jobs slipped (but not as badly), and prices cooled ever so slightly.

In a nutshell, US Manufacturing’s still limping , but with new orders up and prices easing, it looks more like a stubborn jog than a collapse, at least for now.

France’s republican theater is collapsing, and the march to war can no longer be denied. A leaked July 18, 2025 memo reveals the Ministry of Health has ordered hospitals to prepare for a “major military engagement,” expecting up to 50,000 wounded within months of deployment. ‘Macro-Leon’ has vowed to send troops to Ukraine, and the nation is being conditioned for the inevitable. Hospitals are instructed to train staff under wartime constraints, brace for psychological and physical trauma, and prepare emergency centers near airports and train stations for mass casualties. Europe is on the edge; the contagion of war will not remain contained.

https://www.lecanardenchaine.fr/defense/51669-la-sante-requisitionne-les-hopitaux-pour-la-guerre-en-europe

The “North Atlantic Terror Organization” , alias NATO, isn’t officially at war yet, but you wouldn’t know it from the balance sheet. Drowning in debt, NATO’s members somehow found the cash to make Ukraine the priciest conflict in the alliance’s history. Spending will hit $1.59 trillion in 2025—up from $1.5 trillion last year—with the US footing the lion’s share at $980 billion. Canada and Europe together will cough up $608 billion, averaging 2.76% of GDP, while Poland proudly takes the crown at 4.48%. Lithuania and Latvia follow close behind, with the Nordics happy to burn through 3% or more of their GDP on this “defense.”

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2025/8/pdf/250827-def-exp-2025-en.pdf

Remember when NATO members were “struggling” to meet 2%? That was before Russia-Ukraine. Now they’ve shot up from 1.8% pre-war to 2.6% in 2024, and 2.76% today—already marching toward the 5% pledge made at the Hague Summit in June 2025. Apparently, when your economy is buckling under debt and inflation, the smartest thing to do is double military spending. Brilliant.