The YOLO crowd, perpetually hypnotized by Wall Street fairy tales, drools at every whisper of a Fed rate cut, convinced it’s manna for stocks and the economy. Meanwhile, anyone with a functioning chart—and more than half the brain of your average TikTok trader—knows the truth: a Fed cut usually signals a faltering U.S. economy, and historically, the S&P 500 tends to sulk over the next 12 months rather than dance.

Anyone with even a shred of economic sense—and not sipping the bankers’ Kool-Aid—knows this: when the Fed cuts rates, it’s a red flag that the economy is in trouble, S&P 500 earnings have already peaked, and they’ll only rebound once the Fed starts talking about raising rates again as the business cycle pivots back toward a boom.

Seasoned investors know the drill: a Fed rate cut signals that the Nasdaq has already peaked relative to the Dow, and it’s time to flee the YOLO-favorite tech darlings and seek refuge in the stodgy, reliable Dow stalwarts.

In a nutshell, Fed rate cuts aren’t a gift for stocks—they’re a warning: S&P earnings have peaked, Nasdaq is topping, and the smart money retreats to the reliable Dow.

The Macro Butler went full gloves-off with The Contrarian Capitalist , unpacking today’s geopolitical circus—where the Malthusian masterminds of the North Atlantic Terror Organization (a.k.a. NATO) moonlight as population-control influencers, exporting their chaos subscription plan to Asia.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-contrarian-capitalist-dfa

The self-proclaimed “Peace Maker in Chief” — better known as Donald Copperfield — has finally dropped the camouflage.

His latest manoeuvre? Rebranding the so-called Department of Defence into what it’s always been: the Department of War.

Mission accomplished.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osULR9FvDZQ

The Department of War, born in 1789, was politely rebranded as the Department of Defense in 1949—because apparently “NME” (National Military Establishment) sounded too much like enemy, and “war” was no longer fashionable under the UN’s peace charade. Now Donald Copperfield, the self-styled Generalissimo of Branding, wants to drop the pretence and call it what it’s always been: the Department of War. Bureaucratic camouflage off, bayonets fixed.

The EU, that Orwellian club of unelected overlords, lets people vote for a Parliament with less power than a student council while Brussels bureaucrats pull the real strings. Ukraine is their favourite puppet for resource grabs and war games, and anyone like Viktor Orbán who dares spoil the depopulation party gets promptly shoved to the corner.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20240112IPR16780/the-hungarian-government-threatens-eu-values-institutions-and-funds-meps-say

On its 34th “independence” day, Ukraine—better described as NATO’s favorite puppet—celebrated by striking the Druzhba oil pipeline, cutting off Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia and proving once again that EU energy security is just collateral damage in the North Atlantic Terror Organization’s war games.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukrainian-attack-suspends-russian-oil-flows-hungary-slovakia-2025-08-22/

The cokehead Dancer on High Heels in Kyiv, acting like NATO’s errand boy, just targeted Hungary’s energy lifeline—conveniently in line with Brussels and London’s dream of pushing Orbán out. The EU keeps flirting with stripping Hungary’s voting rights but hides behind the “complexity” of Article 7, so why not just let Ukraine do the dirty work as it did with Nord Stream ? This reckless war on infrastructure isn’t about peace—it’s about breaking nations. And peace won’t come until all the Malthusians are dragged off the stage he mistakes for a throne.

https://hungary.news-pravda.com/en/world/2025/08/25/16406.html

The EU is a sinking ship captained by Brussels’ bureaucrats, who export poverty and war like it’s their main industry. Hungary, meanwhile, sees the obvious: prosperity comes from trade with neighbors, not tyranny dressed up as “unity.”

While Donald Copperfield keeps waving his banana-republic wand over monetary policy, the Treasury still managed to shove $69B of 2-years out the door. The auction cleared 1.5 bps through, earning an “A” grade
Indirects backed off, grabbing just 57.1% vs. their usual 66.1%, but direct bidders stepped up with a hefty 33.2% take, well above their 23% norm. That left dealers holding only 9.7%, near record lows, while the bid-to-cover ratio ticked up to 2.69x from the 2.59x average.

As if D.C. didn’t have enough swamp creatures already, the PayPal mafia is now setting up camp. Peter Thiel and Auren Hoffman’s little club, Dialog, isn’t just visiting anymore—it’s planning a shiny permanent HQ right in the heart of the Washington circus.

https://www.axios.com/2025/08/07/dialog-secret-network-thiel-hoffman

The Silicon Valley–meets–Beltway club, Dialog, is shopping for a D.C. campus—because what’s an exclusive billionaire forum without a swamp-front property? Often likened to a tech-age Bilderberg, it now draws everyone from Musk to Summers, Kravis to Cruz, all under Thiel’s watchful eye (and Palantir’s contracts). In a nutshell: it’s a big club—and you’re not invited.

https://gizmodo.com/secretive-peter-thiel-founded-tech-bilderberg-group-is-moving-up-in-the-world-2000640214

European leaders keep preaching about “fighting for democracy” in Ukraine, all while being despised at home. In France, ‘MacroLeon’—a.k.a. Le Petit Napoléon—is watching his lame-duck Prime Minister, ‘Bay-roue De Secour,’ wobble toward yet another collapse.

Further north, the Netherlands isn’t faring much better. After the ‘Gouda Warmonger’ traded The Hague for a cushy seat at the North Atlantic Terror Organization, the patchwork coalition he left behind is already unravelling—because even duct tape politics can’t hide a collapsing economy.

Declining trust in public institutions has always been a key driver of inflation: when citizens and investors lose faith in the clowns running the show, they hoard goods instead of investing, choking supply and fuelling higher prices.

While Wall Street’s brain-dead pundits keep chanting about a “weaker USD” and treating the EUR as some kind of savior for the decaying West, reality paints a different picture: just like during the PIGS crisis, the euro is headed straight for the abyss as European sovereign CDS blow out.

The Macro Butler joined BFM 89.9 at dawn to unpack ‘Donald Copperfield’s’ magic trick of turning the U.S. Republic into a Banana Republic—complete with rising inflation and spiking Treasuries—while also highlighting France’s lame-duck circus and the euro’s inevitable nosedive.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-27082025

As France dusts off its tin cup for an IMF handout, the U.S. Treasury managed to unload $70 billion in 5Y paper — though calling it an “auction” might be generous. The high yield limped in at 3.724%, down from 3.983% in July and scraping the lowest since last September’s 3.519%. To top it off, it tailed the When Issued 3.717% by 0.7bps — the third straight tail.