Ultimately, equity investors should remember that rate cuts are no magic shield for stocks. Every rate-cutting cycle has marked not the prevention of a downturn, but the Fed’s reluctant admission that the economy is already breaking down. And historically, that’s been a recipe for weak—or even negative—S&P 500 returns.

In a nutshell, rate cuts aren’t salvation—they’re the Fed’s confession that the party’s over, and for stocks, that usually means the hangover is just beginning.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

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Anyone who’s ever had to feed themselves knows groceries have been climbing for years—except, of course, for the plutocrats advising policymakers, who wouldn’t recognize a grocery aisle if they tripped over it.
Meat prices just hit records, vegetables are spiking thanks to labor shortages and deportations, and food inflation is running 3% higher than last June.

Honolulu leads the misery index with grocery costs 20% above New York’s, because importing a loaf of bread to paradise apparently costs a small fortune. California and Washington cities also shine on the “pay-more-for-lettuce” leaderboard, with San Francisco, LA, Seattle, and ‘blue friends’ proving that high living costs extend all the way to your fridge.

You don’t need a PhD in politics to notice the pattern: the priciest grocery bills pile up in cities run by reckless ‘blue Keynesians’, whose grand strategy seems less about governance and more about keeping citizens broke and dependent.

The YOLO crowd, perpetually hypnotized by Wall Street fairy tales, drools at every whisper of a Fed rate cut, convinced it’s manna for stocks and the economy. Meanwhile, anyone with a functioning chart—and more than half the brain of your average TikTok trader—knows the truth: a Fed cut usually signals a faltering U.S. economy, and historically, the S&P 500 tends to sulk over the next 12 months rather than dance.

Anyone with even a shred of economic sense—and not sipping the bankers’ Kool-Aid—knows this: when the Fed cuts rates, it’s a red flag that the economy is in trouble, S&P 500 earnings have already peaked, and they’ll only rebound once the Fed starts talking about raising rates again as the business cycle pivots back toward a boom.

Seasoned investors know the drill: a Fed rate cut signals that the Nasdaq has already peaked relative to the Dow, and it’s time to flee the YOLO-favorite tech darlings and seek refuge in the stodgy, reliable Dow stalwarts.

In a nutshell, Fed rate cuts aren’t a gift for stocks—they’re a warning: S&P earnings have peaked, Nasdaq is topping, and the smart money retreats to the reliable Dow.

The Macro Butler went full gloves-off with The Contrarian Capitalist , unpacking today’s geopolitical circus—where the Malthusian masterminds of the North Atlantic Terror Organization (a.k.a. NATO) moonlight as population-control influencers, exporting their chaos subscription plan to Asia.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-contrarian-capitalist-dfa

The self-proclaimed “Peace Maker in Chief” — better known as Donald Copperfield — has finally dropped the camouflage.

His latest manoeuvre? Rebranding the so-called Department of Defence into what it’s always been: the Department of War.

Mission accomplished.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osULR9FvDZQ

The Department of War, born in 1789, was politely rebranded as the Department of Defense in 1949—because apparently “NME” (National Military Establishment) sounded too much like enemy, and “war” was no longer fashionable under the UN’s peace charade. Now Donald Copperfield, the self-styled Generalissimo of Branding, wants to drop the pretence and call it what it’s always been: the Department of War. Bureaucratic camouflage off, bayonets fixed.

The EU, that Orwellian club of unelected overlords, lets people vote for a Parliament with less power than a student council while Brussels bureaucrats pull the real strings. Ukraine is their favourite puppet for resource grabs and war games, and anyone like Viktor Orbán who dares spoil the depopulation party gets promptly shoved to the corner.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20240112IPR16780/the-hungarian-government-threatens-eu-values-institutions-and-funds-meps-say

On its 34th “independence” day, Ukraine—better described as NATO’s favorite puppet—celebrated by striking the Druzhba oil pipeline, cutting off Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia and proving once again that EU energy security is just collateral damage in the North Atlantic Terror Organization’s war games.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukrainian-attack-suspends-russian-oil-flows-hungary-slovakia-2025-08-22/

The cokehead Dancer on High Heels in Kyiv, acting like NATO’s errand boy, just targeted Hungary’s energy lifeline—conveniently in line with Brussels and London’s dream of pushing Orbán out. The EU keeps flirting with stripping Hungary’s voting rights but hides behind the “complexity” of Article 7, so why not just let Ukraine do the dirty work as it did with Nord Stream ? This reckless war on infrastructure isn’t about peace—it’s about breaking nations. And peace won’t come until all the Malthusians are dragged off the stage he mistakes for a throne.

https://hungary.news-pravda.com/en/world/2025/08/25/16406.html

The EU is a sinking ship captained by Brussels’ bureaucrats, who export poverty and war like it’s their main industry. Hungary, meanwhile, sees the obvious: prosperity comes from trade with neighbors, not tyranny dressed up as “unity.”

While Donald Copperfield keeps waving his banana-republic wand over monetary policy, the Treasury still managed to shove $69B of 2-years out the door. The auction cleared 1.5 bps through, earning an “A” grade
Indirects backed off, grabbing just 57.1% vs. their usual 66.1%, but direct bidders stepped up with a hefty 33.2% take, well above their 23% norm. That left dealers holding only 9.7%, near record lows, while the bid-to-cover ratio ticked up to 2.69x from the 2.59x average.

As if D.C. didn’t have enough swamp creatures already, the PayPal mafia is now setting up camp. Peter Thiel and Auren Hoffman’s little club, Dialog, isn’t just visiting anymore—it’s planning a shiny permanent HQ right in the heart of the Washington circus.

https://www.axios.com/2025/08/07/dialog-secret-network-thiel-hoffman

The Silicon Valley–meets–Beltway club, Dialog, is shopping for a D.C. campus—because what’s an exclusive billionaire forum without a swamp-front property? Often likened to a tech-age Bilderberg, it now draws everyone from Musk to Summers, Kravis to Cruz, all under Thiel’s watchful eye (and Palantir’s contracts). In a nutshell: it’s a big club—and you’re not invited.

https://gizmodo.com/secretive-peter-thiel-founded-tech-bilderberg-group-is-moving-up-in-the-world-2000640214