Overall, it was a solid auction—if you ignore the fact that Wall Street’s finest are still peddling the fantasy that bonds remain “risk-free.” Spoiler alert: they’re not. Meanwhile, #gold—the one true antifragile asset with zero counterparty risk—quietly waits, as always, ready to outshine everything when the house of cards finally collapses.

The May personal income and outlays report reads like a stagflation sitcom: prices are rising, incomes are falling, and consumers are finally realizing they can't outspend tariffs forever. Core PCE came in hotter than expected—because apparently, even legal advice and haircuts are feeling the heat. Spending shrank, especially on fun stuff, while incomes took a hit thanks to Uncle Sam tightening the transfer-payment tap. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite inflation metric, core PCE, keeps creeping up like that uninvited guest who won’t take the hint. Long story short: Americans are earning less, paying more, and spending with the enthusiasm of someone reading a tax audit letter.

In a nutshell, Americans are earning less, spending less, and paying more—stagflation is here, and it's charging service fees.

Despite empty wallets and shrinking pay checks, consumers somehow found their happy place in late June—maybe denial really is a superpower. Sentiment jumped 16% from May, the first cheer in six months, even as real spending shrank and future expectations dimmed. Fewer folks are fretting over tariffs, Iran, or Trump’s tax plan, and inflation fears are down—because nothing says “economic confidence” like ignoring reality and hoping the bill never arrives.

In conclusion, consumers are feeling better, spending less, and choosing optimism over reality—because why worry when you can just vibe through the tariffs?

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

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The “Manipulator in Chief” — a business genius with six bankruptcies under his belt — now gearing up to run the U.S. economy like one of his failed casinos.

In the coming “#Trump #Stagflation,” the #FED might as well take a sabbatical, especially if His Royal Hairness installs another loyal court jester to nod on cue.
Who needs central bank independence anyway, when the only policy that matters is: Make America Great Again… for the donors?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTck5Y9Kl64

New York, once the glittering crown jewel of capitalism, is now auditioning to become the capital of communism—led by its latest visionary, Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Because nothing says economic brilliance like turning Wall Street into Woke Street.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/25/trump-zohran-mamdani-reaction-00423933

Under the sacred banner of Keynesian mythology, Zohran Mamdani—the latest reckless hero of “affordability”—is set to finish what decades of bad policy started: driving New York City straight into economic oblivion. His grand plan to make #NYC more “livable” will likely accelerate the great blue-to-red state migration, handing over the financial crown to places like Texas and Florida. Soon, Wall Street might just be a souvenir shop in the People’s Republic of New York.

https://cbsaustin.com/features/we-are-austin/nyse-texas-to-launch-as-fully-electronic-exchange-expanding-business-opportunities

In the latest plot twist of the climate soap opera, #Australia has introduced the world’s first “#climate visa,” letting Tuvaluans escape their allegedly sinking paradise—because what’s a better passport than rising sea levels?
As of June 30, 2025, over a third of the island’s 4,000+ residents have applied, eager to trade beachfront doom for Aussie healthcare and Wi-Fi. Under a treaty signed in 2023, 280 Tuvaluans a year get golden tickets out—because nothing says climate emergency like a bureaucratic quota.

The so-called “climate visa” may sound like an act of environmental compassion, but it’s really more geopolitical chess than humanitarian charity. Under the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty, Tuvaluans get a lifeline only if Tuvalu hands over veto power to Australia on any future security or defense agreements. Conveniently, Tuvalu is one of the few countries that recognizes Taiwan over China—making it a strategic pawn in the Indo-Pacific. So yes, it’s less “climate rescue,” more “checkmate Beijing with a coconut island.”

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/26/asia-pacific/politics/tuvalu-australia-climate-visa/

#China’s June #PMI was a bit like that glass of champagne at a frat party—it looks bubbly, but the room’s still a mess. Manufacturing production perked up and demand expanded for the first time in three months—cheers to that! But don’t get too carried away (or end up hugging the porcelain bowl), because employment is still shrivelling and business confidence is down in the dumps—the weakest since Beijing’s big growth pep talk last September.

With the U.S.–China #tariff truce expiring in mid‑August, that glass of optimism might evaporate faster than a cold brew on a hot day. Sure, Beijing cranked up construction, signalling support for the economy, but any real stimulus is apparently being saved for late Q3—just in time to either calm nerves or go off-script entirely if trade tensions choke again.

So… who do you want to be?

Listen to The Month That It Was in June 2025 from The Macro Butler.

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Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler IG Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-june-15f

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Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-817

Dear Investors,

Please find below the June 2025 factsheet for The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-310

The US ISM manufacturing PMI ticked up to 49.0—cue the applause for being less bad than expected. The bump came from a rebound in production and inventories, not from anything as exciting as actual demand. Firms aren’t betting on a recovery—they’re just hoarding ahead of looming tariffs. New orders dropped, backlogs shrank, and employment fell even faster. But hey, export orders rose—probably because everyone’s racing to beat the end of the “Liberation Day” tariffs truce. Supplier deliveries “improved,” which just means things are slowing more efficiently now. And prices? Still climbing. So to recap: demand’s fading, workers are getting cut, inflation’s heating up—but sure, let’s celebrate that inventory bounce.

In a nutshell, US Manufacturing limped forward on inventory hoarding and renewed tariff fear, while demand sagged, jobs shrank, and prices kept climbing—call it a booming economy if you dare.