Retail sales look sturdy on paper but strip out inflation and they’re more limp handshake than firm grip—still stuck below the April 2022 high and below last December level. History shows that real retail peaks often line up with highs in the S&P 500-to-oil ratio, which usually dips under its 7-year average before recessions. The signals are blinking red, but Wall Street’s still whistling past the graveyard.

In a nutshell, shoppers are splurging like it’s a boom, but behind the discounts and headlines, inflation’s turned the retail rally into a recession warning in disguise

Washington’s cheerleaders can keep parroting “all is well,” but Americans aren’t buying it—literally. Consumer sentiment just tanked to 58.6, inflation fears are back on the rise, and more people say high prices are shredding their living standards. Shoppers are cutting back, unemployment worries have doubled since 2022, and tariff chatter is creeping into kitchen-table talk.

The partisan gap widened further: Republicans stayed oddly upbeat, with nearly two-thirds betting on rate cuts, while independents were lukewarm and Democrats mostly braced for higher-for-longer—proof that even inflation expectations now wear party colors.

In short, Main Street feels a lot more like the Great Recession than the glossy picture painted by elites who’ve never wrestled with a grocery bill.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 Behold BRICS’ Gold Glory: As the dollar’s weapon turns to dust, a new dawn rises—with gold as the cornerstone of a reborn mercantilist world. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/brics-gold-glory-the-dawn-of-a-new

Sure, LinkedIn can keep patting itself on the back for “protecting the community” by censoring anyone who dares point out the Davos crew’s little depopulation project during the 'plandemic'.

But history has a funny way of outing the real criminals—no matter how many posts get deleted.

https://t.me/TheMacroButlerSubstack/367

At the end of the day, it’s always about a little “Jean Therapy” — even for the Wokes and their Malthusian cousins...

While Wall Street celebrates tech’s “infinite AI gains,” Main Street drowns in reality: U.S. household debt surged $185 billion in three months, now totaling $18.39 trillion, a stark reminder of who really pays the price.

Housing debt crept up $149B, mostly mortgages, while HELOCs added a measly $9B. Meanwhile, non-housing debt threw a party: credit cards +$27B, auto loans +$13B, student loans +$7B. New auto loans hit $188B, credit card limits +$78B, HELOC limits +$18B. Basically, Americans are maxing out everything except common sense.

Credit card balances jumped to $1.21T, up 5.87% YoY. Auto loans added $13B, hitting $1.66T, while other consumer loans stayed flat at $540B. Student loans inched up to $1.64T.

Credit quality decided to keep us on our toes: auto loans got a little riskier, with the median score slipping 6 points, while mortgages suddenly decided to play it safe, jumping 5 points at the median and a whopping 13 points at the tenth percentile.

About 53,000 new foreclosures hit credit reports—a slight dip—but no shock there: middle-class Americans are drowning in debt because, well, life’s expensive. The real kicker? Student loans. With the repayment moratorium gone, delinquencies remain “elevated,” with 4.4% of debt in trouble.

Almost all debt types managed to behave… except student loans. With the government ending sleepy Joe’s payment freeze, delinquency rates skyrocketed. Serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) for student loans hit 12.9%—the highest in 21 years—while autos, credit cards, mortgages, and HELOCs barely twitched, albeit already elevated.

The spike in delinquencies—especially among student loans—signals growing financial strain for American households amid high rates and weak hiring. Consumer spending already fell in H1 2025, before tariffs pushed prices higher. Meanwhile, the bankruptcy pipeline is swelling: 131,000 consumers saw new bankruptcy notations in Q2. Expect this number to skyrocket as delinquent student loans roll into defaults, bringing the student debt crisis fully into view.

As the US staggers from its inflationary boom straight into an inflationary bust, Main Street braces for more poverty while Wall Street throws a party, raking in cash from endless banker-driven wars and tightening their chokehold on the Washington swamp.
Survival of the fittest, or at least the richest

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/brics-gold-glory-the-dawn-of-a-new-0ae

ALWAYS REMEMBER

You don’t need a PhD in the CPI (Corruption Perceptions Index) to figure out that Ukraine is basically running a masterclass in corruption—not just in Eurasia, but on a global scale.

https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024/index/ukr

So it should shock absolutely no one that Ukraine’s illegitimate president—better known as a coke-addled heel-clicking performer turned NATO’s favorite marionette—has been busy wiring $50 million a month to the UAE.
Call it his little retirement nest egg, neatly laundered from the human meat-grinder he’s running, safely tucked away for the day he finally exits stage left, far from the battlefield.

https://x.com/RepLuna/status/1956813828639138250