The Macro Butler
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The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
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In June, that $20 billion in tariff loot was just enough to nudge the US Treasury into a rare budget surplus. But July? That was a fiscal Everest too steep to climb.

According to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement, Washington blew through $630 billion — up 9.7% from last year’s $574 billion and the second-highest monthly splurge since January. So much for DOGE’s legendary cost-cutting… turns out the only thing being trimmed in D.C. is the truth.
Spending jumped nearly 10%, while revenues crawled up just 2.5% to $338B — and that’s only thanks to $19.3B in tariffs. Strip those out, and Uncle Sam’s income actually shrank year-over-year.
July’s books went from a $27B June surplus to a $291B hole — 20% worse than last year’s $243B deficit — making it 2025’s second-biggest monthly shortfall and the second-worst July in US history, beaten only by the post-Covid spending binge.
After last month’s brief reprieve, the deficit lurched back, hitting $1.629T in July — up 7.4% from last year and already locked in as the third-worst year in US history, behind only the Covid blowouts of 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, the interest tab hit $91.9B for the month, bringing the 10-month total to a record $1.019T — barreling toward $1.2T for the year, because nothing says “fiscal health” like paying Wall Street more than the Pentagon.
It also means interest is now Uncle Sam’s second-biggest expense, outmuscling defense, income security, and health — with only Social Security still on top, though it’s anyone’s guess how long before interest claims that crown too.
At this pace, America’s hottest growth sector isn’t tech, defense, or healthcare — it’s shoveling cash into interest payments, the classic prelude to imperial collapse. After all, nothing says “end of an era” like going broke before the next war is even paid for.
While the self-proclaimed Peace Maker In Chief—more accurately the Warmonger In Chief—issues threats over a Friday Arctic summit, North Atlantic Terror Organization alias NATO is already mobilizing for another conflict. A former Soviet military base in Romania is being transformed into the largest NATO stronghold in Europe, signaling preparations for another confrontation with Russia.

https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/21/romania-to-host-largest-nato-military-base-in-europe/
After cornering the Russian bear with the Minsk agreement—an agreement it never intended to honor—and turning Ukraine into its favorite meat grinder, the Brussels warmongers are already rehearsing Act 3 of their Malthusian play.
Peace with NATO? Don’t make me laugh—their sole mission is to keep dishing out death to Russia and anyone else form the Global South being on their satanic guest list.

https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/16285
US wholesale inflation just had its biggest glow-up in three years, leaping 0.9% in July as if it were auditioning for “Dancing with the Tariffs.” Apparently, higher import costs are contagious, and exporters have decided they’re not about to absorb them. Instead, they’re heroically “sharing the burden” by hiking prices for everyone else, with services costs up 1.1% and wholesalers cranking margins 2% as if marking up machinery and equipment were some sort of patriotic duty.
For equity investors, the takeaway is painfully obvious: Corporate America will have to keep passing rising input costs straight to consumers if they intend to preserve margins and protect earnings, otherwise shareholders will fit the tariff bill.

In July, the spread between core CPI and core PPI slipped back into negative territory, the deepest since last February, underscoring just how inefficiently companies are offloading cost pressures in an ever-changing regulatory chaos. One way or another, consumers can relax knowing they’ll be doing their patriotic duty by footing the bill—quite literally.
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In a nutshell: with tariffs back in vogue, the tab falls to either Corporate America’s shareholders—or to consumers, who’ll soon find out the real cost of Making America Great Again.
It’s that time again—Buffett’s quarterly “portfolio spring cleaning.” After a three-quarter pause, the Oracle of Omaha is back to trimming Apple, dumping another 20 million shares (still leaving him with a mere 280 million). He also shaved down Bank of America, plus a few others, keeping only his beloved American Express untouched. In short: Buffett’s still in de-grossing mode, just a little less politely than usual.

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc
On the buy side, Buffett treated himself to just over 5 million shares of UnitedHealth—$1.6 billion worth—slotting it in as Berkshire’s 19th largest holding. He also sprinkled a little love on Constellation Brands and Domino’s, and, in a rare show of enthusiasm, more than doubled his bet on Pool Corp. Apparently, even the Oracle enjoys a well-stocked liquor cabinet, a hot pizza, and a clean swimming pool.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012325008343/0000950123-25-008343-index.htm
While the world’s busy holding its breath over an Arctic photo-op, China’s July data just wheezed like a marathon runner at mile three. Consumption’s slowing, investment’s shrinking, and even industrial output tripped over consensus forecasts. Sure, heat waves and floods played the cameo villains, but the real plot twist is weak sentiment—and Beijing’s likely to roll out more stimulus before the People’s Bank of China starts handing out free ice cream in September.
In a nutshell, China’s economy just faceplanted into a summer slump—heat, floods, and bad vibes have Beijing reaching for the “Make China Great Again” stimulus button.
The Macro Butler
Jefferson warned Americans that banks could be more dangerous than armies. He didn’t warn them about taxpayers willingly tipping the empire into oblivion.
Those who give to the government as if offering alms forget that a mighty house does not need charity. True wisdom lies not in filling the coffers, but in guiding leaders to curb waste and govern with restraint.
Singapore: the West’s poster child in Asia, now embracing all the Keynesian follies that have doomed its developed-world cousins—60% of workers living paycheck to paycheck, outpacing Japan, China, and South Korea, and up from 53% just a few years ago.

https://www.adpresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/PAW2025-Final.pdf
Singaporeans are working harder than ever, yet still struggling: 60% of those juggling two or more jobs live paycheck to paycheck. Underemployment drives many to take extra work—35% of two-job holders and 31% of three-job holders cite the lack of full-time opportunities—while others chase long-term goals, savings, or education. Rising living costs amplify the pressure: Singapore tops the Asia-Pacific Cost of Living Index, with HDB resale prices soaring nearly 10% in 2024 and real median incomes declining slightly over the past five years. Side jobs increasingly serve as both financial lifelines and skill-building ventures, highlighting a society where effort multiplies but financial security barely budges.
Canada, under the iron whim of WEF mascot “Marx Carney,” now leads the world in Keynesian excess and green fanaticism—proudly pioneering the first-ever “climate lockdown.” In Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, the comrades have sealed off public forests to save the people from the great wildfire menace (naturally blamed on the climate gods’ wrath), banning hiking, camping, fishing, and trail use.
Break the rules, and you’ll donate up to $28,872.50 to the People’s Treasury. Liberation postponed until October 15—or whenever the weather obeys.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-provincial-forest-bans-miss-the-point/
When rulers see man as the root of calamity, they blind themselves to the balance of Heaven and Earth. To punish the people for the wind, the sun, and the turning of the seasons is to sow resentment, not harmony. The dry years and the fires they bring have long cycled through the ages; they heed neither decree nor tax. Yet those in high office, urged on by distant councils, lay a heavy levy upon the people—beginning with twenty coins for each measure of smoke, rising like a tide until it drowns households in burdens.

By the year of the next cycle, the cost will press upon families in the thousands, while the great merchants of industry bear little. Such laws are not born of the Way, for they seek control, not stewardship, and mistake governance for mastery over Nature itself.

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2018/10/canadas-trudeau-vows-to-impose-carbon-tax-opponents-push-back/